Wider channel. 

Time cycle

NDX old gap. 

Right here, and doing good. Still looking for the Feb 2nd gap to be filled. 

As I mentioned yesterday, Time and Price square outs this big in an asset as large and liquid as gold attract an enormous amount of quant dollars. 

Nice Kev! Congrats. 

Backtesting the falling wedge. 

Matt, GLD was extremely oversold and bounced off a major 1.618 Fibonacci Expansion (support) level (160.96) It was also testing the .382 retracement to the Aug 2018 low (162.60). Additionally, early this week is the 10th Fib turn window off the  August highs.  With the low being 160.95 on Friday that is the optimay of bouncing off a confluence of time/price support.

Simultaneously, Silver was oversold and bounced off its trend channel (support) from November also almost to the penny.

Those bounces occurred while the dollar was rallying on Friday and held as equities sold off into the close. While admittedly most retail traders had no idea those support levels even existed, quant programs running billions of dollars certainly did.   I bought on Friday and posted about the expansion target on Friday as well. I am selling into this gap...not buying.

Congrats RP. As if often the case, a lot of people got caught leaning the wrong way right into major technical support because they were not even aware it existed and they were focused on the “news” instead. 

Small/Large

You can do anything you want. IWM/QQQ, Banks/500, etc. 

If you really do want to do the intra-market analysis very closely the next few days, set up all your relatives like this so you dont have to do it all mentally on the fly intraday. 

Based on decades of observing retail, professional and institutional traders, that type of hypothetical approach is relatively pointless at these times. Unless you are running enormous amounts of money and trying stay relatively market neutral while capturing alpha (in which case you have quant programs making those decisions for you) no one makes consistent money trading that way at this point in a cycle. 

Instead,  the most successful traders simply trade what they see on shorter time frames  when they actually see it and then execute in whichever product they are seeing it in.

For example, if we gap up in the morning, look to see where the relative strength is. If it is the NDX, and especially the SMHs, that would favor the long side of everything. Then, if you are not already long, take the break of the first 15 min range looking for a trend day higher if it is to the upside or at a minimum a gap fill if it is to the downside (though I would probably look for a filling of the Feb 2nd gap as well).

Now is not the time so try to make decision based on intra/inter-market analysis. By definition, we are at point of a potential trend change, so until we get some resolution there is really nothing to analyze on time frames beyond a few hours. 

Gold and Silver bouncing nicely, up 1 and 2 percent respectively off Friday’s lows after becoming over extended to the downside to reach the 1.618 expansion target in Gold.

The set up is very similar to what we saw in SPX and SMH at the recent highs when they over extended to the upside to  reach long term expansion targets. 

Literally, the first time I can remember using an Andrews Pitchfork in over a decade was about two weeks ago when I noted that the regression channels and uptrends in SLV were inconsistent with the price oscillations I was expecting (I was expecting a downswing but we were were already on the support lines). Friday, we gapped down and bounced off the lower fork I had created. Given the price action and Gold's bounce at the 1.618 expansion it is clear that Friday's selloff was not some random reaction to other assets as is the case many days in the metals.

Every one of the signals in that chart occurred in a raging bull market. Be careful not to extrapolate  bull market activity into perpetuity. By definition, in meaningful corrections oversold markets get more oversold and stay more oversold while prices are declining when compared to the preceding bull phase.