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Backtest...

Posted by chartboy on 10th of Mar 2021 at 10:55 am

Backtest...

Posted by chartboy on 9th of Mar 2021 at 05:29 pm

Broke above it, it traded

SPX 5 min

Posted by chartboy on 9th of Mar 2021 at 05:20 pm

Broke above it, it traded as support, then it failed, which is evidenced by the rapid decline as soon as the failure occured.  

Posted by chartboy on 9th of Mar 2021 at 08:54 am

I also came to realize, before moving to Joby he co-founded Pinterest. So, being worth several billion already, the money from Joby is relatively meaningless to him, especially since he has pledged to give half his net worth away to charity. 

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 06:46 pm

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 06:42 pm

Fundamental....Funny story. I was talking to a close friend of mine the other night and we were laughing about some crazy EV stocks. He said to me, do you remember Paul that we used go out drinking with? Of course I did, because my friend had hired him and we used to buy his beers when he used to come out with us after work in the city back about 15 years ago....long story short, I come to find out that he is the Executive Chairman of Joby, which I had never even heard of to that point. 

Nice trade off the 12200

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 01:02 pm

Nice trade off the 12200 level NDX using SPX because of the relative strength, reasonable place to take some off at this .618. 

The 12200 target I mentioned

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 11:31 am

The 12200 target I mentioned previously getting hit here. 

Watch the dollar, whether it is making a short term top now that it has hit some upside targets here will be the deciding factor in whether GLD lingers in this support zone or rallies out from this compressed state. (Still room higher to 93+, but we are pretty extended in DXY and compressed in GLD/SLV)

I am limited on what I can say. Basically, historical events, publicly available information and ETF technical analysis is about it. 

DXY made it to an

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 08:46 am

DXY made it to an upside Demark target here at 92.07 after coming up off the TDST line last week. 

Stevie Cohen’s traders used to be some of the many clients I provided market color and liquidity to. Needless to say there was very little room for error as I was by definition always on the wrong side of every turn when providing liquidity in those names. 

That is absolutely the case. Semi’s are extremely sensitive to economic growth or lack there of. In large part, because it is a commodity business

The moment the market would hit any type of a bottom, even on short term charts, it would be a sure thing that the squak box would be barking...you just sold 250,000 AMAT with more behind it (or KLAC, etc,etc.)

A few days ago I

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 07:45 am

A few days ago I shared some charts of intra-market relative analysis. One of them was Semi’s vs NDX. The reason I did was regardless of what everything else is doing, generally, the semis are always a canary in the coal mine for the market. So, keeping that in mind, it pays to always watch the technical position of SMH. I have been operating under the presumption that the market was in trouble since it hit its 2.618 expansion target, and that at a minimum it would need to decline to the recent.236 retracement to around 220 to take the pressure off things. Now that my target has been hit, and we have some support from the linear regression channel, it colors my short term “lean” less bearish.  (As I spent years advising hedge funds on semi’s I can say without question they take the same approach.) It is no panacea, but it helps inform trading decisions. 

It always pays to consider

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 07:20 am

It always pays to consider possible longer term outcomes even if you dont trade off them simply because it forces you to have a better understanding of the macro picture. I have been operating under the presumption that if we hit a long term top we are in a rolling top. That means the NDX already made its top and any  new legs up will be led by the SPX/IWM (ex Martin Pring’s work suggests a long time reversal of the NDX/Oil relationship which is similar to the 2000 top and led to an almost decade long period of weakness in tech).. One possible option that becomes higher odds after yesterday is that SPX is in the process of now forming a head and shoulders top (which could always form then fail). In that scenario we would see the right shoulder form here and then come back to the grey neckline over the next few months.

Again, not a prognostication, just one possible option to consider going forward. 

I posted this support line

Posted by chartboy on 5th of Mar 2021 at 06:54 am

I posted this support line yesterday, but on a different time frame. As far as the SPX is concerned so far, this pullback is nothing but a pullback after reaching the 3.618 overhead target at @3950 back down to test support at the old megaphone trendline. 

Few people realize...

“The President's Working Group on Financial Markets, known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team, was created by   Executive Order12631, [1] signed on March 18, 1988, by United States President Ronald Reagan.”

Posted by chartboy on 4th of Mar 2021 at 02:18 pm

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