10 years at 14.2 are hitting resistance and the measured move target off an eight month base. 

Keep an eye out for the resolution of this descending broadening wedge. 

Dont get emotional here believe there was not anything special about todays move. It was actually very typical action for a market in this state. All we did was open lower, take out a bunch of obvious stops, and then return to trade back up to the fill the gap and backtest the broken neckline and overhead fib fan line. 

You are mixing your perception of fundamentals with technicals.

I will take the evidence provided by a 20+ year chart pattern that is several standard deviations from the norm over any opinions of the fundamentals 100% of the time.

I was literally one of the world largest traders of semis (by daily volume) at the time of the last top in 2000. Believe me, the funds that doing the buying, like Janus, were not operating on fundamentals. They were just operating as a function of money flows. 

Yes, they do. But that is not what was happening yesterday.

There is a big difference between a post Exp hangover where position need to be settled causing weakness on Monday and liquidations that cause a gap down that breaks the neckline of a meaningful Head and Shoulders and then fails. 

If you have been around long enough, you will remember when semis led literally everything in the market (2000ish). They are always something of the canary in the coal mine.  That is why you would be missing a big piece of the picture if you were not away that 2.618 extension of 2000 high to 2008 low @259.

Last week’s high was 258.59.

One other thing to keep in mind, Tuesday (blue line)  is the 11th Fibonacci turn zone (89 day) off the Covid low.

Especially considering the high correlation of large price movements in response to the extensions all the way up, I would like to hear member’s thoughts on the fact that the SPX 361.8 extension of the move from the 2009 lows to the 2007 highs is 3958. (Noting that was effectively this week’s high.)

Bump And Run Reversal fka the BARF.

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal_reversal

I probably should have noted...this has all the charectoristic of a BARR. 

Another old line...these are not trendlines drawn today. 

C = A @ 3690 

While the gap down doesnt seem terribly significant in the short term. Longer term, it is debatably occurring as a gap back into the megaphone. 

With time and price balancing for A and B the market is positioned for a big move. 

I’ve gotten many funds into those types of positions, including Janus in 99. 

That is what happens when moves into an asset class are dominated by macro funds. They want to increase exposure to the asset class as quickly as possible and cant worry too much about how they initially get it. So the fundamentals of the underlying securities are relatively meaningless to them as long as the correlation to the targeted assett class is very high. (Think Janus Funds approach to gaining exposure to internet stocks in 1999)

(That is symptomatic of excessive liquidity in the market chasing assets with little regard for price, which creates the groundworks for eventual blow-off top type moves).