Part of the process of putting tops in involves “gaffing” shorts several times before the real reversal occurs and training the Johnny come latelies to buy every dip. That gets the crowd thinking exactly what you are when the break actually occurs.

In fact a classic bear maneuver is to trace out inverted head and shoulder patterns, to let the uneducated bulls buy them as they break out slights, and then immediately reverse them and break them straight down to new lows.

Point being, the macro trends will dominate the micro patterns. While the Dow may have made that pattern last month, the NDX and SPX, etc have deteriorated significantly since, so the environment has changed. 

Agreed Matt. 12200 looks like a big magnet in NDX. 

FYI...The daily 10 year rate chart also now has a +9/+13/+9 pattern.

Additionally, the dollar rally on Thurs/Fri was a bounce off the TDST support from the Jan move. 

Potential Fibonacci time/price square out setting up to start the week. Watch for a pivot to form at the 50% retracement as we hit the 10th turn window for a possible reversion trade entry set up in the coming days.

(Assuming SLV continues to show relative strength to GLD, executing in SLV off the GLD chart may provide additional alpha and beta.)

“The above (below) figure shows an example of a Head-and-shoulders top chart pattern. The left shoulder (LS) appears above the right shoulder (RS). But, the two shoulders appear symmetrical about the head. A neckline shown in blue, joins the two armpits. Where price closes below the neckline, a breakout occurs and it also confirms the chart pattern as being a valid head-and-shoulders top. A pullback occurs in this example just to make trading interesting.

-- Thomas Bulkowski”

He was pretty adamant about a reversal at the 3907 number. We did run through and of course have reversed. However, there is another equivalent level at 4007. Also, he previously had a Wave 5 target below here. So, I am not sure his models would look at this so much as a powerful rally, as perhaps instead exhaustion moves. Though I know, those types of qualitative assessments are not really part of his jargon. 

Thanks! I appreciate it. That reminded me that I usually get an update on all the daily and weekly SPX TD#s mid-week along with a bunch of other stuff, and did not this week. Gotta go search my emails!

Again, please stop attributing false information to me. Your continued posts are bordering on harassment. In the decade plus I have been here, this is very first time I have ever had to deal with this type of nonsense.

The chart I posted had a correctly drawn neckline (yours below does not). After testing that neckline, the SPX immediately fell approximately 30+pts. That is a stupendous opportunity for any member that benefited from that post. Then once the HnS pattern was completed, as was evidenced by the failed retest, I shared a new SPY chart. In that chart, (shown in the post below) I then clearly identified the new dominant actionable pattern, the descending broadening pattern long before price ever even approached that old neckline again. Those are the facts and they are cleared archived here on the page. 

Here is the actual chart at the point in time you are referencing with your blue arrow. Additionally there is another chart identifying the existance of the pattern well before we even reached that point. And finally a third chart identify the low this morning where price returned to the other side of the pattern I had shared far in advance. Please do not attribute information to me that is inaccurate. 

Monthly shooting star topping at the 3.618 expansion. 

A-B-C .382

I dont post about opinions. I have been doing this long enough to know that price movements have no correlation to my opinions. I post about chart patterns, statistical correlations and occasionally perceptions based on years of observating certain statistically significant repeating patterns because those are what is valuable to the membership. 

No offense...but gold is not sniffing anything out now except perhaps some glue. Lol. It has been doing exactly what it should do it in a rising rate environment....falling.

To answer the question of what is going on with it today...one just needs to chart it.....the move today was nothing more than the completion of the move to a target from the breakout of the Aug-Nov range. Specifically, the 1.618 expansion of that move. 

Here is the driver...that move was the breakout from the pennant, which immediately followed a head fake making bulls think it was going the other way.

As I mentioned, presuming we were closing on the lows was enough to keep an experienced trader wither from taking that first breakout, or at least to have stopped themselves out real fast.  

Market Maker make markets, they do not place market moving proprietary orders into the close. What you saw was selling plain and simple.

This action is exactly what you should expect in a bearish trading environment. Mid-day rallies are created to suck in weak long, to squeeze weak shorts, and to create additional overhead resistance levels. Then most bars (daily, weekly, monthly,etc) close at the low end of the range, often at the low tick. Coming into a day like today, the presumption should be that we are closing at the low of the day. 

Yes, the blue is a fib fan.

Not a buy program, it is cycle program running since the highs. It has been a seller creating highs, this is the first inversion where it was a buyer.