IWM/DOW vs. QQQs/SnP. - Which

    Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Feb 2021 at 09:49 pm

    IWM/DOW vs. QQQs/SnP. - Which scenario is more likely ?  Would love to see a voting tool from the community or maybe we could use Twitter ???  Scenario A - The DOW and IWM hold the line (like the Reddit crew have so far failed at) and the QQQs and SnP recover to new highs ?   OR Scenario B - that the QQQs/SnP bounce for 1-2 weeks while IWM and DOW lose their monthly 9s while forming further divergence and bear flags and then we get a unified push down ?  Some other prediction charts posted weeks ago showed a big zig-zag (W pattern) between Feb - April followed by a massive rally up only to face a massive sell off in fall.   My preferred view is Scenario B and I would love to see AAPL get back up to 133 on the bounce/broken trend line and act as the Canary for the start of the proper down move.  A positive (expected) Jobs number Friday will lead to major turmoil in the Bond Market and everything could roll over.  I do not believe there is any scenario where the QQQs and SnP continue lower while the IWM and DOW continue higher - even though this is what all the main stream media / rotation crew will have us believe.  Trying to figure out how to play it - Short DOW and IWM, Long QQQs and SnP for the week is what I'm thinking.

    If you really do want

    Posted by chartboy on 28th of Feb 2021 at 11:20 pm

    If you really do want to do the intra-market analysis very closely the next few days, set up all your relatives like this so you dont have to do it all mentally on the fly intraday. 

    Not sure Semis to QQQs

    Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Feb 2021 at 11:55 pm

    Not sure Semis to QQQs is what I was looking for but this chart sure look like it's setting up for a MASSIVE double top... JS.  You are Chart Boy.   I am Chart Noise (my new Ninja name). :)

    You can do anything you

    Posted by chartboy on 1st of Mar 2021 at 12:03 am

    You can do anything you want. IWM/QQQ, Banks/500, etc. 

    Small/Large

    Posted by chartboy on 1st of Mar 2021 at 12:35 am

    Small/Large

    Based on decades of observing

    Posted by chartboy on 28th of Feb 2021 at 10:58 pm

    Based on decades of observing retail, professional and institutional traders, that type of hypothetical approach is relatively pointless at these times. Unless you are running enormous amounts of money and trying stay relatively market neutral while capturing alpha (in which case you have quant programs making those decisions for you) no one makes consistent money trading that way at this point in a cycle. 

    Instead,  the most successful traders simply trade what they see on shorter time frames  when they actually see it and then execute in whichever product they are seeing it in.

    For example, if we gap up in the morning, look to see where the relative strength is. If it is the NDX, and especially the SMHs, that would favor the long side of everything. Then, if you are not already long, take the break of the first 15 min range looking for a trend day higher if it is to the upside or at a minimum a gap fill if it is to the downside (though I would probably look for a filling of the Feb 2nd gap as well).

    Now is not the time so try to make decision based on intra/inter-market analysis. By definition, we are at point of a potential trend change, so until we get some resolution there is really nothing to analyze on time frames beyond a few hours. 

    Great insight !  Only safe

    Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Feb 2021 at 11:49 pm

    Great insight !  Only safe play is CASH in short term and then wait for it as you say.

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