Posted by chartboy on 28th of Feb 2021 at 10:58 pm
Based on decades of observing retail, professional and
institutional traders, that type of hypothetical approach is
relatively pointless at these times. Unless you are running
enormous amounts of money and trying stay relatively market neutral
while capturing alpha (in which case you have quant programs making
those decisions for you) no one makes consistent money trading that
way at this point in a cycle.
Instead, the most successful traders simply trade what
they see on shorter time frames when they actually see it and
then execute in whichever product they are seeing it in.
For example, if we gap up in the morning, look to see where the
relative strength is. If it is the NDX, and especially the SMHs,
that would favor the long side of everything. Then, if you are not
already long, take the break of the first 15 min range looking for
a trend day higher if it is to the upside or at a minimum a gap
fill if it is to the downside (though I would probably look for a
filling of the Feb 2nd gap as well).
Now is not the time so try to make decision based on
intra/inter-market analysis. By definition, we are at point of a
potential trend change, so until we get some resolution there is
really nothing to analyze on time frames beyond a few
hours.
Based on decades of observing
IWM/DOW vs. QQQs/SnP. - Which scenario is more likely ? ...
Posted by chartboy on 28th of Feb 2021 at 10:58 pm
Based on decades of observing retail, professional and institutional traders, that type of hypothetical approach is relatively pointless at these times. Unless you are running enormous amounts of money and trying stay relatively market neutral while capturing alpha (in which case you have quant programs making those decisions for you) no one makes consistent money trading that way at this point in a cycle.
Instead, the most successful traders simply trade what they see on shorter time frames when they actually see it and then execute in whichever product they are seeing it in.
For example, if we gap up in the morning, look to see where the relative strength is. If it is the NDX, and especially the SMHs, that would favor the long side of everything. Then, if you are not already long, take the break of the first 15 min range looking for a trend day higher if it is to the upside or at a minimum a gap fill if it is to the downside (though I would probably look for a filling of the Feb 2nd gap as well).
Now is not the time so try to make decision based on intra/inter-market analysis. By definition, we are at point of a potential trend change, so until we get some resolution there is really nothing to analyze on time frames beyond a few hours.
Great insight ! Only safe
Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Feb 2021 at 11:49 pm
Great insight ! Only safe play is CASH in short term and then wait for it as you say.