SPY Point of Control

  
OMG - that's the last thing we need. But still funny. 

LVPB - this is NOTwhat I would characterize as a bullish light volume pullback.  Volume levels are at previous climax levels now...and it would seem that we are too early in the trend for it to be done and at a climax phase (although most of us are expecting a bounce in the short term).  CTA's have been dumping big time. That particular chart was a GREAT signal and gave about a day's warning relative to the top.  But I think the whole topping process was just the big guys working their way out little by little so as to  not completely spook the market before they were ready, and then they let it go once they were positioned correctly.  All the major insiders were selling big time for the last couple of months. 

Yep, that has happened a lot in the past.

Traders are not going to want to go home with any long exposure with a potential nuclear retaliation cycle actively playing out. I'm hearing that Israel is not saying anything about being done yet. It's sometimes their style to keep tight lipped even when they are done. I suppose it leaves enemies guessing...which can be good unless the enemy has a credible pre emptive capability.

Negative gamma kicking in now. 4980 is the second biggest level for OPEX (5K had the most going into today) .  

Note that we're only just under session VWAP because of all the price action overnight.  The lower band (1 sigma) is at 4963. 

I've decided that they are less relevant but they still mark meaningful levels on my 23 / 5 charts because they are typically characterized by higher volume and larger price movements.  I've seen too many upside and downside targets achieved and gaps filled overnight (along with the corresponding price action that was expected) to think otherwise, but there's always going to be some disagreement on this point. 

Definitely filled on my end. I was trading it actively when it happened.  I'll never get why people ignore so much price action on an instrument that trades 23 / 5...but to each his own.

And what's this "cash" thing when referring to SPX?  Is there some way to buy SPX shares that I'm not aware of? I'm pretty sure it's only options, all the time, no matter if it's RTH, ATH or GTH. 

Blue light special - you can get  $500 right here for selling 4850 puts that expire tomorrow. Get em while they last (they were going for 1500 an hour ago so probably not long) 

SPX - I don't usually check this time of day, but we just hit session VWAP.

There were some PANIC option trades in the market over the last hour. I did sell a couple of people crazy panic insurance. Out already. For all I know Iran could counter attack before the market open tomorrow. 

I was at a restaurant when futs tanked. I paid my bill, ran home and then threw crap at the TV for 15 minutes in frustration because they were all stuck on stupid, worthless US politics and no one had picked up the story more than an hour after it happened. Morons. All of them. We're doomed to get nuked someday while CNN drones on and on about threats to democracy.  In other news ...I might need a new TV. 

Target achieved. Negative gamma kicking in. people stuck in SPY options not going to sleep well tonight. I just rolled.

The royal we? I like it. Team trading is better.  I'll consider changing my target .

SPX lost 5000. I like that I can trade SPX options 23 hours a day but it's also kinda terrible. My accounts with SPY options I know can't be adjusted overnight so I just don't look at them. 

DXYZ - current premium to NAV is ~1000%. Lol. 

Any truths that exist will morph as the dominance of daily options continues to grow at a blistering pace. Today and tomorrow are not really comparable to a year ago and we might as well be in a completely different world from 5 years ago.  Options really have become THE dominant force in markets...and now we're dealing with daily expirations...but it's still a relatively new phenomenon so we shouldn't think we know all the risks yet. There will be unexpected events and growing pains because of the internal changes in market structure and drivers.

I think of it in terms of notional value (probably because I'm an options trader) and it's mind-blowing.  Think about how a bank makes a loan and it increases the money supply (you don't need the Fed or Treasury to increase money supply - bank loans create money). Now take the options market and think about participants creating almost unlimited notional positions on both sides of an underlying, but many many times larger notional value than the value of the underlying itself.  The notional value of the options market is much much larger than the combined value of the underlying assets. Most popular assets can now be levered via ETF's where traders create the leverage with complex option positions. What could possibly go wrong?  

NFLX - looks like the part I got right was that the boost from password sharing crackdown is going to play out at some point. The are not going to be reporting sub adds after this quarter (I wonder why. Haha). 

I've had CNBC on for the last 30 minutes or so. Bulls on parade still - some things never change.  NFLX definitely going up today and Tom Lee is pushing small caps. 

You must live in a red state? As someone who has spent most of my life exposed to blue, I'm all to familiar with situations where a Gov person applies for the rental with no intention of being the renter...and then will potentially sue you if you don't accept the application. At the end of the day, these people aren't messing around. They are going to get their way and that includes not letting homeowners be choosy about who they rent to.

But I agree on the homebuilder thesis. 

Hard to say exactly how the dealers are positioned vs the street, but either way, the exposure at the 5K level for this OPEX is WILD.