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It grossly exceeds the amount needed to indemnify the victim...but it gets better...there doesn't appear to be a victim. It's a circus and a witch hunt wrapped into a soup sandwich. 

CRE and KRE - as

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 12:35 pm

CRE and KRE - as is always the case with large economic issues, they are hiding the truth from us to prevent panic. It's not wrong to do that - panic is bad for everyone, but it's still important to dig past the surface so that you don't get blindsided with your retirement money in IWM with no stop loss in place, etc.

This is behind a paywall, but very good. Many on substack have written about / outlined this article as well: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/calling-cre-manageable-is-just-wishful-thinking-macro-view?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Think back to previous crises and most came with no warning, except from quacks like me that everyone called a pessimist and or conspiracy theorist until everything came crashing down....happened to me going into the dot com crash and the GFC.....I took serious heat for my views both times.  The pattern doesn't include a warning from people you want to believe (but probably shouldn't). Note: I'm not predicting a major crisis this time. World Govs have figured out how to print and inflate their way out of anything...including shutting down the world economy for months. 

Just noticed that it looks

MNMD Updated View

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 12:19 pm

Just noticed that it looks a bit like a trap when viewed this way

MNMD - Steve, this mind

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 11:58 am

MNMD - Steve, this mind trippy one you were posting on last week looks like it's breaking out. 

Need to recapture 206.50.  KRE is leading the way.

Here's some more detailed analysis (I clipped it down to 1 minute):

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxWc12C5tgSRX2niwoLy_Rt8CmbuX5ej3o?si=EAdVslUhJ-w8V5_M

Anyone cheering on the lawfare he's been experiencing isn't thinking through what it's going to be like when the shoe is on the other foot. Power always shifts back and forth and many have been openly cheering this on because they hate the man, but the precedent it's setting will come back to bite...probably all of us. 

VWAP - didn't tag the VWAP and bounce until 0700 EST...I thought it would happen 3 hours earlier.  Now sitting slightly below but looking bouncy.  

A's - seems like a

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 10:51 am

A's - seems like a different lifetime since I've seen this alert on the downside. When it triggers on the upside, it's been a good signal to buy, not sell...a sign that things are getting bubbly. But I don't expect that to work in reverse. It's more likely a signal of amateur selling on the downside moves. 

DJT. Lol. Of course he would use make the ticker his personal monogram   

Any idea why? Did Trudeau

Weed ripping again...

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 10:42 am

Any idea why? Did Trudeau appoint himself as Canada's "leader for life" yet? Maybe he's a gongja fan   

TLT - I have a

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 10:39 am

TLT - I have a weird feeling that this is a trap. I was leaning towards a buy yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. Got the pop today. But the chart, if not redrawn, looks like it's rotating back to touch the broken trendline. That said, it never broke and made a lower low on the last move (double bottom). Buying it here is a bet that the inflation trade is off, yields are going lower and the neutral rate is going to be lower, not higher.  My sense is that opposite is true on all counts.  I might buy it here anyway since it's providing an objective and tight stop and just hope I'm wrong. 

Matt, we'll definitely miss you

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 10:20 am

Matt, we'll definitely miss you but take the time you need...even if it's more than just today. Hopefully you're surrounded by lots of friends a family. I went through this in June of 2018. I took a month off of work and still wasn't right when I finally went back. 

KRE short working out well so far.  Just a trade, but I'm leaving a runner. It's pulling down IWM also, but KRE is the major contributor to IWM weakness so might as well get the direct exposure instead of worrying about the next SMCI sneaking up and surprising shorts inside of IWM. 

MDY - my horse took

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 12:27 am

MDY - my horse took the lead. I feel like a proud parent. 

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Mar 2024 at 11:48 pm

SPX - looks like maybe

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Mar 2024 at 11:03 pm

SPX - looks like maybe we're going back to the overnight tag of anchored VWAP.  The closest one currently is at 5237 - that is anchored from the JPOW pop. The next one is quite a ways down at 5190 - anchored from the last touch of the bottom of the rising channel.  Seems less likely as that would be a 100% retrace of the JPOW move...but we are potentially somewhere in a wave 5, so maybe this time will be different.  If the pattern of an overnight VWAP touch then bounce is back, the touch and bounce are likely to occur somewhere around 0400 Eastern Time (weird to be so specific, but that was the pattern for a while not to long ago).

If stars really align,  maybe this will start the move to a touch of the 9 week EMA for the 1st time in 20 weeks...and then pigs might start flying (scratch that - pigs are already flying - RDDT IPO'd today).

I don't think so. I

GOOGL volatility system went short

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Mar 2024 at 07:42 pm

I don't think so. I believe it's a short GOOG signal....but it's the short term reversion to mean type. Nothing to really worry about if you're in for the longer term, IMO.  I would personally love to add on a gap fill around 145. 

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Mar 2024 at 07:16 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x21GJbBe6yU

Videos like this one with honest questions for Yellen based on facts should be more common. Instead, they get buried and you're a conspiracy theorist if you even dare to watch them.

The line of questioning was very straightforward and taken directly from public data sources, but she still refused a straightforward reply.  And people believe her by default. 

So you held it with an initial drawdown of something like 40%. Congrats on staying the course. 

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