3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Jared, as far as the nonsensically named "inflation reduction
act" goes, the MMT economists believe, in part, that
increased taxes are a primary means for sovereign nations with
control of their own currency to decrease inflationary pressures
and redistribute wealth. We're just seeing them play out that part
of the theory after the first phase got out of control. IMO.
I've never been able to figure out how MMT theories work in a
world with global trade, competing currencies, etc...and that's
part of the reason the theory has never been endorsed by anyone
other than nut jobs economists like AOC's professor at Boston
College...but it appears they are running with the next phase of
the theory anyway.
SPX weekly - bullish MACD cross plus green on histogram for the
1st time since November. That might be enough to trigger some
additional buy algos early next week (that didn't already trigger).
SPX - thanks Steve, I love these projections...still very
useful even when not taken as gospel (some people want black and
white projections/guidance, but trading doesn't work that way).
I think your current ST projection plays out and completes wave
A of a major bear market correction that finishes either at
4368 (6.18% fib) or 4567 (78.6%). Market always catches
the most people off sides, and a rally to those levels would do the
trick. Also, a rally up and out of the current channel matches up
well with my theory that when prices violates trend channel in the
direction of the trend (as happened 16 - 17 June), a reversal is
imminent and it will take price up and out of the other side of the
channel and establish a new channel in the other direction
(probably very short term in this case). I think 3200 is in
the cards, but probably not until November or so (unless the slope
of the bear market changes).
XSP is a good alternative to SPX for smaller taxable accounts.
1/10 the size, decent liquidity (much better than it looks) and you
still get the 60/40 tax treatment. It's doesn't trade as many hours
at SPX though (I think SPX is 23/5 and XSP trades more like
standard index options...closes at 4:15, etc).
tmbrook1 - that screenshot is from Interactive Brokers (click
the "performance" box when reviewing a trade), but I typically use
either ThinkorSwim or Tasty Works to analyze option trades and then
I execute them on Interactive Brokers. They all have about the same
capabilities, but some are easier to use than others.
This is my next layer for SPX.
14% return/risk with 82% profit probability is about what
I look for. 10% return/risk and 80% probability is my
Imelhoe - used AUG 18 for the 1st tranche (short SPX 4185) and
SEP 15 for the 2nd tranche (short 4350 - started
yesterday and added to this morning).
TBH - the returns aren't great with VIX at this level, but I
like to keep it mechanical as much as possible. So I tend to accept
lower returns during low vol periods. Most options traders move
away from indexes when the VIX drops in order to achieve higher
returns for a given capital outlay...but I like the relative safety
inherent in the indexes and capital isn't really my limiting
factor...for me it's more about managing overall risk.
This was worth forwarding...
Corrected strikes: fredsaid - yes, selling call spreads in SPX
right now. My first layer was AUG 4185/4285 (back when vix was low
30's) and my latest is SPX 4350/4450. I try to sell strikes between
16 and 20 delta and then reduce capital requirements and risk by
spreading it out with a long put or call. With the VIX down here,
it's starting to be tempting to go long vol, but my system is much
less complicated when I keep it to selling premium instead of
buying it. I make a few exceptions here and there to play
single stocks, but with short premium, I can always see exactly how
much I have "on the board" for any given expiry and use that to hit
my monthly income targets.
I've been building short positions. My latest is SPX 2350/2450
call spreads. Adding on the way up.
Developer fund? Matt, I'm not a programmer, at least not a very
good one. I dabble at scripting in various languages and took a
python boot camp last year. Anyway I know enough only to know some
of what's possible. In the case of your systems, it seems like a
relatively small programming task using python or whatever native
programming language applies to your trading platform to generate
either an email when a signal triggers and/or a post to the
community. Including a screen capture automatically and other
similar tweaks shouldn't be much of an issue.
Anyway, I'd definitely be willing to invest a bit to see it
happen and I'm sure there are others like me. Doing it manually
seems like an awful lot of work for you and I would rather not see
you get sick of it and risk having it go away at some
Correction: GOOGL - The 200 week EMA and 50 month EMA are
overlapping right now at the 95 - 96 area. I realize they are about
the same thing, but I think it makes for a compelling support
GOOGL - The 200 week EMA and 40 Month EMA are basically
overlapping right now at the 95 - 96 area. I've been watching that
area as a potential magnet for a while now. Selling 95 strike puts
seems like a high probability earnings play.
Diamond in this case looks a lot like a H&S pattern. But
maybe looking at it this way allows for a trigger a few bars
earlier than a break of the neckline?
Nice reversal so far. Channel breaks in the direction of the
major trend (aka going parabolic, whether up or down) seem to
almost always signal an upcoming reversal. Sometimes takes longer
than other times...and sometimes takes longer than some can remain
solvent, but it still seems to be a thing.
You can divide one long contract by shorting a number of shares
equal to 1/2 the current delta (if you want to take off 1/2 risk).
Note that using delta this way requires adjustments along the way
as volatility and time to expiration change (the other
greeks)...but it's always worked pretty well for me, especially in
short term situations.
OIH - volume is anemic, at best. It's way below daily average.
Per Steve's comments last night, I was hoping for some volume
confirmation with todays move. NOT happening. BUT....I looked back
and the last few times vol was this low (e.g. late December), it
preceded a big move higher. Doesn't have to play out that way this
time again, but that has been the recent pattern.
OIH Updated - I was a little early on this trade Friday
afternoon but I also liked the inverse head and shoulders look that
was forming and used that to place my stop. Working out well
OIH - gapped up out of descending triangle (not drawn here) and
looks like maybe it wants to break out of the channel, 16 Delta put
currently at 185, for those that primarily sell puts to enter, like
Love the systems! For now I'm using them to leg into what ends
up being iron condors...often unbalanced wings as I leg in.
Eventually, I'd like to track the average number of trades
generated over a year or more and build a system for the systems
that makes it a bit more mechanical in terms of sizing per trade
with a total portfolio allocation in mind for system trades (I'm
currently running it around 10%, but it's a mental thing since I
haven't yet figure out how to build the allocation model given all
the different triggers).
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