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Algo is stumped.  Someone forgot

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 02:24 pm

Algo is stumped.  Someone forgot to code in exceptions for "OPEX pin" behavior.  

If we were to drop 50 points it would go from being a decent week to a homerun. My experience is they aren't going to let that happen.....too many people in the exact same trade as I am. If they do drop it, the play for them would be to drop it hard and fast.  Wipe out all the people selling puts that don't know how to neutralize their deltas each day. 

Killing premium but also killing all traders that thought they were brilliant looking at a chart and selling 5450 calls to give it a little buffer above the "obvious" short at 5400.  They need to hold it here for a couple of days to cash in on the squeeze past "obvious" levels. If they let it drop below 5400, all those traders win.

I'm very familiar because I'm in the trade.  The difference is that I'm not feeling any pain overall because I've stuck to my guns and stayed delta positive even when a pullback seemed imminent. 

SPX - sellers ran out

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 01:56 pm

SPX - sellers ran out of ammo trying to hit that unlimited iceberg order -  pretty much gave up.  Whoever it is is clearly set on maintaining the level (for now) but content with not pushing higher (bid not moving up with price).  A pin in this general area into OPEX makes sense. Then, if the Gov / derivatives fueled squeeze sticks by the previous playbook, we will likely ramp to next level.  Not as hard to imagine new highs in a week or two now that we've done it 5 or 6 times in a row (the 1st time was a different story)

Approaching 78.6.  Needs to hold or it will disqualify and redraw the waves (currently in 4 at 74.35%)

Not everyone uses hard stops...especially options traders. Mental stops are pretty common. Good to know these details. 

Japanese 10y yield pegged down

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 11:39 am

Japanese 10y yield pegged down 4% on the day. I'm sure that's attributable to institutional investors buying Japanese Gov bonds   

I think something might be

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 10:52 am

I think something might be wrong with the URA alerts. URA is trying to break out of coil look on the 2min (to the upside) and I've received multiple flat alerts. 

It's a derivatives product so you have to factor volatility into the pricing. 

The URA trade I posted earlier is still open and profitable. I don't see a reason to close, but moving up stop to just over breakeven. 

I guess the system already

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 10:42 am

I guess the system already sends "flat" notifications. Or did you just make the change? 

Never needed to tell me. I've been working on a flask server approach myself and know the complexity. I was trying to setup a scraping tool to build these alerts out for myself, but I didn't have much luck with my initial attempts to scrape the BPT website. No need anymore   

Much appreciated! I'm very happy with the new functionality. I might have some bad news for Mastermind   

HP Systems - would be

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Aug 2024 at 10:23 am

HP Systems - would be cool if notifications came out when switching to "flat" (STS hit)

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