Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:40 pm
The way I currently understand it, it will have a tendency to
accelerate as it pushes past 5K towards 4980 because dealers will
be forced to sell into the move to hedge their short put exposure.
That's assuming the street is net long 5K puts. Maybe they
are net short puts because that's been a major trend recently? That
would still cause an acceleration most likely because covering puts
would lead to VIX spike. Most likely outcome is a pin, but if
it flips, it could get rough fast.
SPX 120 with Gap
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:34 pm
$SPX - Chart Link - like to see them go for that gap
The way I currently understand
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:40 pm
The way I currently understand it, it will have a tendency to accelerate as it pushes past 5K towards 4980 because dealers will be forced to sell into the move to hedge their short put exposure. That's assuming the street is net long 5K puts. Maybe they are net short puts because that's been a major trend recently? That would still cause an acceleration most likely because covering puts would lead to VIX spike. Most likely outcome is a pin, but if it flips, it could get rough fast.
Hard to say exactly how
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:44 pm
Hard to say exactly how the dealers are positioned vs the street, but either way, the exposure at the 5K level for this OPEX is WILD.
I`d love to wrong but
Posted by Glad on 18th of Apr 2024 at 02:57 pm
I`d love to wrong but it seems likely that 5000 is the max pain # and will be the target to be taken out.--