3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
PCE today which is something the FED watches closely
Futures up nicely,let’s see how they look by 9:30?
To many" if's" here for my liking.....
Friday game plan - looking for consolidation after big move up
Thursday. Expect Crypto to move up as market moves down but
Crypto is range bound other than Etherium which needs to get back
into pattern. Also the VIX must behave for the Bull case
which seems a little bit too obvious - see CNBC talking heads
patting themselves on the back for ST bottom call. If Cryto
and Vix behave and we don't see Tom Lee tomorrow then the bull case
should hold and we should see a flat to down close with Crypto
starting to look better, oil and energy leading down and the VIX
sitting at bay. Crypto should then have a big rally this wknd
out of the patterns followed by a jump on TQQQ, KWEB and the growth
high fliers for a quick trip to 4230. If Ukraine ends or
China ends lockdowns (I'm expecting this one as soon as this wknd)
that supports the ST bull case but after Powell does his measly 50
basis points in June... the 4th of July bear fireworks will be
If however Crypto and the VIX do not behave, i.e. BTC breaks
down out of consoidation, VIX spikes up and stays up and we see Tom
Lee... Then the post memorial day fireworks will be spicy !
Happy to share that I went long EOD Wed, exited EOD Thursday and
well, you know what I'm thinking about for Friday... bear traps are
sneaky but I hope I'm safe with Shorts end of July and Longs 2
weeks out - echoing Steve's mid term views. Bottom line -
stay on your toes and take profits early !!!
Likely one of the best bounce areas over the next little
while... I think money will rotate out of oil and energy into
everything else just for the bounce.
Nice nice !
my understanding is that a p- shaped volume profile is actually
a bullish pattern( and a b shape is bearish). Im actually
quite new to volume profiles and we dont tend to use them too much
here at BPT, but here's a link with an explanation:
I said, I'm new to this type of analysis so I dont have any
experience with it.
That’s great news.
definitely and today the NYMO closed at 77 which is quite high.
However, what I discussed last night is that when the NYMO or NAMO
closes outside its upper Bollinger Bands after price is coming out
of a very oversold condition it can be bullish where you get an
uptrend that lasts for 1 or 2 weeks, not without pullback days of
course, but overall tends to support a trade low that holds for a
bit and doesn't just roll back over. Here's a couple charts -
the one from last night, and some past examples, I like the clean
NYMO and NAMO closed above their upper BBs - overbought near
Opinion from ECRI:
"It's time to prepare for a recession"
-20% is generally enough for a non-recessionary bear/correction.
In a recession forward earnings can be revised down 30%-40% easily
so that will make the decline a lot larger.
Those are levels were one should suspect LT sellers reside along
with 50% Fib area 4224
I was looking at the same thing, Rumor is a huge stimulus
package being prepared for Emperor Xi's upcoming fall meeting.
If the FED goal is to make people poor, then I can say with 100%
certainty this goal is far from accomplished. We have not
A "P" Profile on the SPX on the chart below is not indicative of
a strong continuation pattern with most volume right into supply.
An Econ 101 test should be mandatory for anyone seeking public
‘Nothing Is More Permanent Than A Temporary Government
SDS weekly - the next selloff will be big due to the EMA's being
crossed up and PSAR buy signals.
The money flow is already green and will become even greener
“How are the fundamentals so bad but we are only down 15%?” This
bear market is full of FOMO from the bull run since 2010. The fear
of missing the low is outweighing the fear of a prolonged decline.
For this reason, it will still take a limit down day in
$SPXto form a bottom.
From a pure technical viewpoint - the move into 3810 was just 3
waves (zig zag) and that doesn't support a bottom so maybe a 4th
wave flat or triangle (since we had a symmetry break).
KWEB beginning to look interesting.
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!