short term very extended. Options

SPX 15 with Fibs

Posted by arun on 29th of Jan 2023 at 10:15 am

short term very extended. Options pricing is too enticing to market makers to ensure a rug pull

CX was a great breakout

Posted by rbreese on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:55 am

CX was a great breakout to new highs but now RSI extended and 4 simple moving averages look toppy and massive volume on  Friday.  Thoughts please. 

Australia on the other hand

Posted by raymuy on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:35 am

Australia on the other hand is looking strong - not far away from previuos tops 

AEX CAC and DAX are

Posted by raymuy on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:22 am

AEX CAC and DAX are looking tired 

Carolyn Boroden @QueenOfFibs In ES futures we have

Posted by raymuy on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:19 am

Carolyn Boroden

@QueenOfFibs

In ES futures we have time resistance to the rally with the last swing being up 25 bar on the 120m chart and the current rally swing in time is similar at 24 bars up so far...good time to trail up a stop




Some levels on SPX and

SPX 15 with Fibs

Posted by steve on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:16 am

Some levels on SPX and ES posted yesterday to write down

FOMC Wednesday and ECB/BOE on

Posted by steve on 29th of Jan 2023 at 09:15 am

FOMC Wednesday and ECB/BOE on Thursday 

AMZN GOOGL AAPL Thursday 

META Wednesday 

TSLA   practice count   15 min 

Posted by diabloblanco on 29th of Jan 2023 at 08:58 am

TSLA   practice count   15 min 

I am not super bullish

Debt

Posted by arun on 29th of Jan 2023 at 07:47 am

I am not super bullish or super bearish. I am definitely not in the camp of retesting covid lows. As of now trading what I see. Long term portfolio is still invested. Made some adjustments as needed for example picked up more Tesla at 115, XBI at 65 last year

Matt -  When you get the

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Jan 2023 at 11:16 pm

Matt - 

When you get the chance can you explain on the intraday BPT Deluxe charts two things:  

1) what are the dots in blue and pink?  If you could explain generally what they are so that I can understand it on an intuitive level, that would be helpful.  

2) why is do those intraday charts not have the vertical lines like the daily chart?    

I understand you have a lot going on with personal matters so it doesn't have to be right away, but if you could explain it, when you get the chance, that would be great.  TIA

You are super bullish.  

Debt

Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 28th of Jan 2023 at 10:03 pm

You are super bullish.   Are you heavily long?  

Thanks timebandit for that observation !!    Appreciate it !!

$CPC closed pretty low Friday

Posted by timebandit on 28th of Jan 2023 at 05:15 pm

$CPC closed pretty low Friday at 0.84. Past times it reached this level on this chart led to a decline in $SPX, sometimes one day, sometimes multi-day. No guarantee it will happen again, but that's the pattern. If the rapid plunge in BB width keeps up much longer, the bands will become very tight very soon.

In dec 22 the prices of unregulated energy (which, while maintaining sustained growth, pass +69.9% to +63.3%), unprocessed food (from +11.4 % to +9.5%) and transport-related services (from +6.8% to +6.0%); on the other hand, support for the inflation trend derives from the acceleration in the prices of regulated energy (from +57.9% to +70.2%), processed food (from +14.3% to +14.9% ), recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +5.5% to +6.2%) and communications services (from +0.2% to +0.7%).

In December 2022, core inflation (i.e. excluding energy and fresh food) accelerated from +5.6% to +5.8% and that excluding energy alone rose from +6.1% to +6.2%

Reduce rates and they'll spend

Debt

Posted by diabloblanco on 28th of Jan 2023 at 05:03 pm

Reduce rates and they'll spend more ,   raise taxes to bring in more revenue and they'll spend more .  They're gonna spend more and create more debt till the country folds like a cheap suit .  To assume they'll do what's best for the country is to ignore what they've done already , the exact opposite.

Will the stock market rise if the dollar falls hard ? ,,,   Hard assets rise against a weak currency  .    Kinda like my house , when it was built  (1959)ish  sold for 7k   now 800k 

I’m from Italy. Official CPI rate as of dec 22 is 11,6%, near the top of nov 22 at 11,8%. The main item was energy with natural gas and electricity out of control due to silly sanctions against Russia. Wages are steady at the moment, so no inflationary spiral in place still. For now the top in inflation may be in, with a mild winter NG is way down and also elecricity with it lately. The big driver will be escalation of Ucrain conflict or not. The stronger Euro is helping.

Hence the need to cut

Debt

Posted by arun on 28th of Jan 2023 at 03:45 pm

Hence the need to cut rates as early as they can.  The fed is probably more desperate than people think to cut rates. But they are waiting for data to show cooling which so far has been trending in the right direction (bad news for bears)

Earnings recession cant get worse. Analysts have cut estimates significantly. Stocks got destroyed last 2 years. 

Technicals so far have been confirming this move.  

Debt

Posted by steve on 28th of Jan 2023 at 03:03 pm

US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt. The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.

Fred Economic Data (St. Louis Fed)

SPX 15 with Fibs

Posted by steve on 28th of Jan 2023 at 11:58 am

$SPX - Chart Link- plenty of support areas below (bulls don't want below 4005)

ES Weekly pivot 4070 which if held makes Friday's selling insignificant and targets 4125 4141 4160 4195.  Acceptance below 4070 targets 4032 4010 3975 and 200 day  MA

Big earnings week ahead and FOMC Feb 1st 

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