3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS
charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle
support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.
ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting
close at 4130 approx
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" -
answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure.
Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the
edge of a pool
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a
short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames
and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below).
Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts
yeah and I covered them again last night
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
Downside: 3639 3620-26 3609-04 3594 3582-76
3563 3542 Upside: 3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57
3775-84 3793-3801 3817 3828
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of
September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.
If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would
indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it
does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be
approximately 381 ish.
pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an
expanded flat for Wave 4 - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK
will tell the tale
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink
lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th
touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if
this test works?!
This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the
You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my
3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday
and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you
recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I
am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater
makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your
email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.
I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market
focused - I can also post here later after the market, however
check your email
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third
entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry,
3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all
of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope
Go to the systems tab above and read all such information.
These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you
ES 3639 achieved
ES levels updated yesterday
ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level
Support levels on ES around this area and just below.
ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below
looks like ES 3923 capped it
ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone 3864-3855
- if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level
Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce
Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs
thanks almost got stopped out late to party.
ES stalled near first target level posted 3885
ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late
yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional
selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then
Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within
downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed. As I
said a few days, ago Buckle Up
ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed
in position sizing (down)
Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right.
Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like
Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts?
so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.
SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are
Bulls in control above 3920-30
Achieved that target
Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here
Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18
yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?
Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback
Yes it is
The Bulls are the Captain now.
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim
ES back to VWAP
Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916
Good call on 3940 resistance
ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28
Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green,
to monitor for Fridays new system entry's
$INDU - I like how the 2020 plunge tagged the trend line
to a "t". Like a magnet.
adding price by volume to that weekly renko, you can see how we
are in the smallest volume by price support area
$SPX - Chart Link not sure what looks the
best, one is 30 points for each box size, the other is 50. But you
can see next big supports clearly on both
$SPX - Chart Link
I lived thew 2000 to 2002 and 2008 didn't trade in the
70's the Moon phase may be at work here especially last week.
Guys for fun you can look at previous bear markets like 2008, or
2,000 to 2002, or maybe one of the 70s bear markets and try to
compare and find some similar price action between them, however
this is a different type of bear Market and I would focus on the
wave structure and price Action Now versus worrying about
comparisons to previous bear markets, this bear Market is its own
And honestly guys, not to scare you but it would not surprise me
if this bear market ends up being the worst bear Market than any of
us have experienced in our lives, worse that 2008, in fact the bond
action is almost worse now
Good exercise this weekend is to go back to the September 18th
Weekend Newsletter and Review all those Sector Chart Setups and how
NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total
To help Stockchart hamsters 2008 compare 2022 SPX weekly
Correct...black swan type . Understand even if ED forms and
rally follows that would be wave 4 then PLUNGE in Wave 5. So Monday
we shall see what unfolds. There is a cycle due and failed
cycles lead to plunges (notice 3 weeks down and 1 week up bounces
of late). Let me repeat, best to respect the trend until
evidence changes - remain flexible and monitor level to
The analog would have a multiweek rally from here which would
fail in a waterfall manner
Its an almost identical match.
I would make a chart of 2008 but Stockcharts took away the
start\end date function in the period tab when they added
those other nonsensical periods. Seems like a
regression not an improvement.
Steve, if price accelerates down immediately on Monday then it
becomes impulsive to the downside and the ED is off the table
If it becomes impulsive then it may bust through all the
divergences. That may trigger a waterfall decline.
This could be a really nasty three of three of three
Or.... This could only still just be a 1-2 which means even more
bearish to the downside. Very interesting two weeks ahead of
Jobs numbers on Friday could be fireworks if numbers are strong.
Based on jobless clsikes they may be strong
This is another awesome indicator Matt. Thanks so much. Adding
to the toolbox.
Same question as before to Matt or anyone. Have you checked your
TStation charts ?
several indicators have been removed
Chris Ciovaccio video is making comparisons to 2008 water fall
decline which echoes your concern of accelerated selling.
$SPX - Chart Link- note the prevailing
In Thursday's newsletter and again on Friday, I stated that the
SPX 3613 low was NOT the bottom of the current decline since it was
formed with 3 small waves off the SPX 3736 bounce. Late
Friday, that 3613 level was decisively broken and this structure
has yet to complete. From here, you could see a direct
acceleration down (more forced selling) if bulls fail to step in
during the first trading day of the month. IF bulls are able
to bounce then will be watching for a potential ending diagonal to
complete the wave down that began from SPX 4119 in early September
but more selling after such a rally is expected.
$SPX - Chart Link- First off remember that data
here is at least a week old, they don't share their Rydex bear
stats in real time. Notice how all those other peaks in their bear
funds occurred about 1 - 2 weeks AFTER the bottoms. Again in real
time those peaks were at the bottoms but again it's offset like
that because of the delay in reporting it.
My observation here is that the bear funds as shown here have
already spiked a lot, but remember this is showing data for at
least a week ago or longer, and doesn't reflect the sell off rom
last week where traders would have obviously piled more money into
the bear funds, if you had current data it would likely be as high
or higher than prior peaks.
anyway wave counts on the market, we're waiting for this wave 3
to end, and we'll put in an eventual wave 4, which sad to say,
won't be the bottom of this downtrend, as we'll still have wave 5
to go. However those reversion to mean systems should have an
opportunity to get out on that wave 4 bounce
now....that's assuming nothing major breaks in the system as I
discussed with bonds below, or Putin uses nukes etc
SPAB - Chart Link SPAB represents the
TOTAL bond fund, it not only includes junk and investment grade,
but it also includes governing bonds.
a total retracement here! Lower than than 2020 lows, and
tested the 2018 lows
I'm posting this again since it got buried. LQD is investment
grade not junk bonds
LQD - Chart Link -
weekly view, almost back to the Mar 2020 low, wow!
LQD - Chart Link
monthly log view, so far just over 24% off the highs, back in 2008
this fell 27.3% - so it's almost falling as much from a percentage
standpoint as it did back in 2008, and this bear market is FAR from
nothing has broken in our bond market, YET. But I could see it
eventually happening. I think this could be quite worse than 2008
because of all the debt and other thing
Steve. have you checked your TS charts ? Has the removal
of those indicators hit your screens ?
I have shown this expanding diagonal pattern and you can see the
reaction from August high which was projecting a major move
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