Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

SPX Cycles - Do we

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 09:55 am

SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the daily now? 

not sure what you are

Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:03 am

not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.  ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting close at 4130 approx

"ATR was lost last week

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am

"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily"  - answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure. Thanks! 

Trying to hold the S2

Posted by flredsox on 26th of Jul 2022 at 12:15 pm

Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the edge of a pool

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below). Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows. 

Just hoping you caught those

Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:41 pm

Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts 

yeah and I covered them

Posted by matt on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:52 pm

yeah and I covered them again last night

why would the VIX not

Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm

why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?

Probably because of what Steve

Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm

Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below

maybe meaning a lot of

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm

maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 5th of Sep 2022 at 10:46 am

Downside:   3639 3620-26 3609-04  3594 3582-76  3563 3542 Upside:   3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57  3775-84  3793-3801  3817 3828

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back 

It looks like to me

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm

It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of September  that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.  If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so.   If it does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be approximately 381 ish.

pintopower - the QQQs could

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm

pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4  - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale 

Just testing how to post

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm

Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim.  Pink lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th touch and light blue lines would be the Target.  Let's see if this test works?!

This move down was not

Posted by mirhamedali on 29th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 am

This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the technical definition.

You passed with flying colors

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm

You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views 

3684 pivot achieved - main

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 10:04 am

3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot support 

Hi, Steve! I took SSO

Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm

Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater currents. Thanks

makarolya -this is covered in

Posted by matt on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:55 pm

makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.

I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market focused - I can also post here later after the market, however check your email

They don’t do stop losses.

Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:22 pm

They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry, 3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope that helps. 

Go to the systems tab

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:16 pm

Go to the systems tab above and read all such information.  These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you understand completely

ES 3639 achieved 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm

ES 3639 achieved 

ES levels updated yesterday 

Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2022 at 08:47 am

ES levels updated yesterday 

ES nice bounce of the

Posted by steve on 23rd of Sep 2022 at 01:05 pm

ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level 

Support levels on ES around

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 11:28 am

Support levels on ES around this area and just below.    

ES Levels updated and comments

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 09:18 am

ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below 

looks like ES 3923 capped

Posted by retirefire on 21st of Sep 2022 at 03:11 pm

looks like ES 3923 capped it

ES attempting to bounce out

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 10:47 am

ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone  3864-3855 - if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level above 

Taking some gains and trailing

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:07 am

Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce 

Yes trail up stops further

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am

Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs 

thanks almost got stopped out

Posted by retirefire on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am

thanks almost got stopped out late to party.

ES stalled near first target

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:17 am

ES stalled near first target level posted 3885

ES first test of resistance

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection 

Updated levels above - the

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:00 am

Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional selling as one would expect.  

Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then 3842 

Getting a reaction a posted

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:20 am

Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed.   As I said a few days, ago Buckle Up 

ES Pivot around 3960 -

Posted by steve on 14th of Sep 2022 at 08:51 am

ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed in position sizing (down) 

Hi Steve, the support numbers

Posted by imelhoe on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm

Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right. 

Wish trading View had the

Posted by donkeyface on 12th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 pm

Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like StockCharts

Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts?   so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.

SPX has another zone just

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 11:53 am

SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are reclaimed 

Bulls in control above 3920-30 

Achieved that target 

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Achieved that target 

Selling one SPY 11/18 386

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:07 pm

Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here

Likewise selling a 388 and

Posted by retirefire on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:15 pm

Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18 exp.

yes still holding some calls

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:18 pm

yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?

Nice bounce off support 3930

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm

Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback

Yes it is  

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Yes it is  

The Bulls are the Captain

Posted by steverobin on 7th of Sep 2022 at 12:46 pm

The Bulls are the Captain now. 

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:41 am

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim 3928

ES back to VWAP 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES back to VWAP 

Next level for Bulls to

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 11:05 am

Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916 Support 

Good call on 3940 resistance 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 12:33 pm

Good call on 3940 resistance 

ES Support Now 3940 then

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 08:37 am

ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28 

Thanks Steve, have a nice

Posted by retirefire on 6th of Sep 2022 at 09:06 am

Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green,  to monitor for  Fridays new system entry's

$INDU -  I like how

Posted by roger on 1st of Oct 2022 at 06:23 pm

$INDU -  I like how the 2020 plunge tagged the trend line to a "t".  Like a magnet.

adding price by volume to

SPX renko weekly charts

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 05:23 pm

adding price by volume to that weekly renko, you can see how we are in the smallest volume by price support area

SPX renko weekly charts

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 05:19 pm

$SPX - Chart Link not sure what looks the best, one is 30 points for each box size, the other is 50. But you can see next big supports clearly on both

$SPX - Chart Link

I lived thew 2000 to 2002 and 2008  didn't trade in the 70's  the Moon phase may be at work here especially last week.   

Guys for fun you can look at previous bear markets like 2008, or 2,000 to 2002, or maybe one of the 70s bear markets and try to compare and find some similar price action between them, however this is a different type of bear Market and I would focus on the wave structure and price Action Now versus worrying about comparisons to previous bear markets, this bear Market is its own animal.

And honestly guys, not to scare you but it would not surprise me if this bear market ends up being the worst bear Market than any of us have experienced in our lives, worse that 2008, in fact the bond action is almost worse now

Good exercise this weekend is

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 03:32 pm

Good exercise this weekend is to go back to the September 18th Weekend Newsletter and Review all those Sector Chart Setups and how they resolved. 

To help Stockchart hamsters 2008

Posted by petermusic on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:53 pm

To help Stockchart hamsters 2008 compare 2022 SPX weekly

Correct...black swan type . Understand

SPX Current Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:40 pm

Correct...black swan type . Understand even if ED forms and rally follows that would be wave 4 then PLUNGE in Wave 5. So Monday we shall see what unfolds.  There is a cycle due and failed cycles lead to plunges (notice 3 weeks down and 1 week up bounces of late).  Let me repeat, best to respect the trend until evidence changes - remain flexible and monitor level to level. 

The analog would have a

SPX Current Views

Posted by roger on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm

The analog would have a multiweek rally from here which would fail in a waterfall manner

Its an almost identical match.

I would make a chart of 2008 but Stockcharts took away the start\end date function in the period tab when they added  those other nonsensical  periods.  Seems like a regression not an improvement.

Steve, if price accelerates down

SPX Current Views

Posted by mirhamedali on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm

Steve, if price accelerates down immediately on Monday then it becomes impulsive to the downside and the ED is off the table right? 

If it becomes impulsive then it may bust through all the divergences. That may trigger a waterfall decline. 

This could be a really nasty three of three of three down. 

Or.... This could only still just be a 1-2 which means even more bearish to the downside. Very interesting two weeks ahead of us. 

Jobs numbers on Friday could be fireworks if numbers are strong. Based on jobless clsikes they may be strong 

This is another awesome indicator

Rydex Bear Funds

Posted by mirhamedali on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:25 pm

This is another awesome indicator Matt. Thanks so much. Adding to the toolbox. 

Same question as before to

Posted by watcdy on 1st of Oct 2022 at 01:28 pm

Same question as before to Matt or anyone. Have you checked your TStation charts ?
several indicators have been removed 

Chris Ciovaccio video is making

SPX Current Views

Posted by arun on 1st of Oct 2022 at 01:04 pm

Chris Ciovaccio video is making comparisons to 2008 water fall decline which echoes your concern of accelerated selling. 

SPX Current Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:52 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- note the prevailing channels 

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

In Thursday's newsletter and again on Friday, I stated that the SPX 3613 low was NOT the bottom of the current decline since it was formed with 3 small waves off the SPX 3736 bounce.  Late Friday, that 3613 level was decisively broken and this structure has yet to complete.  From here, you could see a direct acceleration down (more forced selling) if bulls fail to step in during the first trading day of the month.  IF bulls are able to bounce then will be watching for a potential ending diagonal to complete the wave down that began from SPX 4119 in early September but more selling after such a rally is expected.

Rydex Bear Funds

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:23 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- First off remember that data here is at least a week old, they don't share their Rydex bear stats in real time. Notice how all those other peaks in their bear funds occurred about 1 - 2 weeks AFTER the bottoms. Again in real time those peaks were at the bottoms but again it's offset like that because of the delay in reporting it. 

My observation here is that the bear funds as shown here have already spiked a lot, but remember this is showing data for at least a week ago or longer, and doesn't reflect the sell off rom last week where traders would have obviously piled more money into the bear funds, if you had current data it would likely be as high or higher than prior peaks. 

anyway wave counts on the market, we're waiting for this wave 3 to end, and we'll put in an eventual wave 4, which sad to say, won't be the bottom of this downtrend, as we'll still have wave 5 to go. However those reversion to mean systems should have an opportunity to get out on that wave 4 bounce

now....that's assuming nothing major breaks in the system as I discussed with bonds below, or Putin uses nukes etc

SPAB - Chart Link SPAB represents the TOTAL bond fund, it not only includes junk and investment grade, but it also includes governing bonds.

a total retracement here!  Lower than than 2020 lows, and tested the 2018 lows

LQD Investment Grade (not Junk) bonds

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:03 pm

I'm posting this again since it got buried. LQD is investment grade not junk bonds

LQD - Chart Link -  weekly view, almost back to the Mar 2020 low, wow!

LQD - Chart Link  -  monthly log view, so far just over 24% off the highs, back in 2008 this fell 27.3% - so it's almost falling as much from a percentage standpoint as it did back in 2008, and this bear market is FAR from over

nothing has broken in our bond market, YET. But I could see it eventually happening. I think this could be quite worse than 2008 because of all the debt and other thing

Steve. have you checked your

Posted by watcdy on 1st of Oct 2022 at 11:02 am

Steve. have you checked your TS charts ?  Has the removal of those indicators hit your screens ? 

SPX Updated Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 10:38 am

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

I have shown this expanding diagonal pattern and you can see the reaction from August high which was projecting a major move LOWER. 

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