Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

why would the VIX not

Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm

why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?

Probably because of what Steve

Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm

Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below

maybe meaning a lot of

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm

maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

PCE today which is something

Posted by steve on 27th of May 2022 at 07:27 am

PCE today which is something the FED watches closely

Futures up nicely,let’s see how they look by 9:30? 

To many" if's" here for my liking.....

Friday game plan - looking

Posted by fredsaid on 27th of May 2022 at 12:51 am

Friday game plan - looking for consolidation after big move up Thursday.  Expect Crypto to move up as market moves down but Crypto is range bound other than Etherium which needs to get back into pattern.  Also the VIX must behave for the Bull case which seems a little bit too obvious - see CNBC talking heads patting themselves on the back for ST bottom call.  If Cryto and Vix behave and we don't see Tom Lee tomorrow then the bull case should hold and we should see a flat to down close with Crypto starting to look better, oil and energy leading down and the VIX sitting at bay.  Crypto should then have a big rally this wknd out of the patterns followed by a jump on TQQQ, KWEB and the growth high fliers for a quick trip to 4230.   If Ukraine ends or China ends lockdowns (I'm expecting this one as soon as this wknd) that supports the ST bull case but after Powell does his measly 50 basis points in June... the 4th of July bear fireworks will be spectacular !

If however Crypto and the VIX do not behave, i.e. BTC breaks down out of consoidation, VIX spikes up and stays up and we see Tom Lee... Then the post memorial day fireworks will be spicy !

Happy to share that I went long EOD Wed, exited EOD Thursday and well, you know what I'm thinking about for Friday... bear traps are sneaky but I hope I'm safe with Shorts end of July and Longs 2 weeks out - echoing Steve's mid term views.  Bottom line - stay on your toes and take profits early !!!

Likely one of the best bounce areas over the next little while...  I think money will rotate out of oil and energy into everything else just for the bounce.

Nice nice !

hey steve- 

my understanding is that a p- shaped volume profile is actually a bullish pattern( and a b shape is bearish).  Im actually quite new to volume profiles and we dont tend to use them too much here at BPT, but here's a link with an explanation:   https://ninjatrader.com/blog/understanding-the-4-common-volume-profile-shapes/Like I said, I'm new to this type of analysis so I dont have any experience with it.

That’s great news.

Thursday Newsletter

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 08:27 pm

definitely and today the NYMO closed at 77 which is quite high. However, what I discussed last night is that when the NYMO or NAMO closes outside its upper Bollinger Bands after price is coming out of a very oversold condition it can be bullish where you get an uptrend that lasts for 1 or 2 weeks, not without pullback days of course, but overall tends to support a trade low that holds for a bit and doesn't just roll back over.  Here's a couple charts - the one from last night, and some past examples, I like the clean histogram version

NYMO and NAMO closed above

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 07:20 pm

NYMO and NAMO closed above their upper BBs - overbought near term

ECRI

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 26th of May 2022 at 07:10 pm

Opinion from ECRI: https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/26/perspectives/recession-gdp-fed-inflation/index.html?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon 

"It's time to prepare for a recession"

-20% is generally enough for a non-recessionary bear/correction. In a recession forward earnings can be revised down 30%-40% easily so that will make the decline a lot larger.

Ciovacco SPX Chart

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 07:10 pm

Those are levels were one should suspect LT sellers reside along with 50% Fib area 4224

I was looking at the same thing, Rumor is a huge stimulus package being prepared for Emperor Xi's upcoming fall meeting.

Trader Talk

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 07:06 pm

If the FED goal is to make people poor, then I can say with 100% certainty this goal is far from accomplished.  We have not even started

A "P" Profile on the

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 06:45 pm

A "P" Profile on the SPX on the chart below is not indicative of a strong continuation pattern with most volume right into supply.   Be mindful 

Loved This Comment From Tracy

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 06:31 pm

An Econ 101 test should be mandatory for anyone seeking public office.

‘Nothing Is More Permanent Than A Temporary Government Program’

SDS weekly - the next

Posted by roger on 26th of May 2022 at 06:06 pm

SDS weekly - the next selloff will be big due to the EMA's being crossed up and PSAR buy signals.

The money flow is already green and will become even greener imo

Kobeissi Comments - Recency Bias

Posted by steve on 26th of May 2022 at 05:56 pm

“How are the fundamentals so bad but we are only down 15%?” This bear market is full of FOMO from the bull run since 2010. The fear of missing the low is outweighing the fear of a prolonged decline. For this reason, it will still take a limit down day in $SPXto form a bottom.

From a pure technical viewpoint - the move into 3810 was just 3 waves (zig zag) and that doesn't support a bottom so maybe a 4th wave flat or triangle (since we had a symmetry break). 

KWEB beginning to look interesting. 

Posted by focus175 on 26th of May 2022 at 05:40 pm

KWEB beginning to look interesting. 

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