Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:43 pm
Business cycle - anyone who's ever worked as an analyst and
woken up with keyboard marks on their face already knows this -
Cycles happen and are unavoidable because of comps (comparisons to
previous periods). A great company or sector becomes a victim
of its own success eventually because it has to to continually beat
the last great period to keep the share price rising.
Enter COVID and free checks sent to both consumers directly
AND businesses directly. What happened? The comps got
annihilated and stocks went crazy despite an economy that was shut
down (purchasing power got destroyed). But now we're 2 years
further down the road and while Gov spending has somehow increased
past an already unimaginable level, it's not going directly to
consumers like it was back then (it is, but not nearly at the same
pace or quantity). Now the bulk of the spending is going to
contracts with NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, LMT, AMZN cloud, SNOW, BA, etc
(you can follow this spend online via SAM.gov - You can even sort
by contract value and see who the largest beneficiaries of our
dollars are). So, how will comps in retail facing sectors possibly
do well compared to that previous period where free money with no
strings attached or product / service delivery in return was sent
out to everyone? Easy answer - they won't do well. It's impossible.
*FWIW - in one of my many previous lives, I negotiated and
signed contracts for the Federal Gov. You probably won't see SNOW
on the list in SAM.gov, at least not at a realistic level, because
we made an exception for SAM reporting if a contract was classified
(the system was FPDS just a couple of years ago, but it has all
transitioned to SAM now).
So true and so funny. When I self-check I always feel I
should get paid. Since, I'm not trained on this machine I
make a lot of mistakes.
Organic vegetables for instance, are always non-organic.
Sometimes, the packages of good meat-cuts stick together and
only one gets scanned.
Often, the machine asks if I put an item in the bag. Like
it's my fault the scanner didn't scan it... I'm not trained on this
machine! The check-out monitor person punches something into
their hand-held computer thing, and I always get the thumbs up that
every thing is cool and I just carry on.
Next, I scan a produce bag of something like avocados, and
the machine asks me how many items??? I don't know, I have 3
avocados but, it seems to me they are all one type of item.
Oh, and that stupidly worded question at the end... "How many
bags do I wish to purchase?" None! I don't want to
purchase any.
Lastly, I love the free news paper stands by the door on the way
out.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:49 pm
I'm not a KRE fan currently, as most know, but have to call a
spade a spade. It's crushing and pulling IWM along with it.
It's not that I hate regional banks, I just know from
experience that they are lying to us about the size of the problems
they are facing and the probability of escaping without major
damage to equity holders. Same story, different decade.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:48 pm
SWIFT announced setting up CDBC platform within the next 12 - 24
months. I knew this was coming no matter what Janet and JP told in
us press conferences, but I was hoping not so fast.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:44 pm
KRE - I can't believe I'm considering a long, but maybe just
have to ride the waves. I do think that some fundamental support
gives traders an edge even in very short term trades...but many
would disagree. It's in prime bull trap area right now
though. If anything, it's a short with a tight stop...and then
consider reversing long if wrong. Could go with IWM instead but
that's a watered down version of what's giving it the juice...if
you're a bull.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:36 pm
MDY - continues to rock. 2hr has a solid wave 3 look (I know MLA
- why bother with count when everything goes up? It's a hard habit
to break...hedging is even worse...wastes time AND money instead of
just time).
Posted by mastermind on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:09 pm
I think that kind of data is a little deceptive. It just
reinforces the effect of long term compounding - in this case
compounding of inflation. Obviously a dollar is not what it used to
be, but then, people have a lot more of them than they used to,
right? And would you have wanted to be around in the 30's when the
purchasing power of the dollar was increasing? That's because most
people didn't have dollars to spend, so supply of goods outstripped
demand for them.
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GSHD - lost the 200
Posted by foody518 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:48 pm
GSHD - lost the 200 dma, would love a short entry at an attempt to regain the 200 dma then back down
Business cycle - anyone who's
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:43 pm
Business cycle - anyone who's ever worked as an analyst and woken up with keyboard marks on their face already knows this - Cycles happen and are unavoidable because of comps (comparisons to previous periods). A great company or sector becomes a victim of its own success eventually because it has to to continually beat the last great period to keep the share price rising.
Enter COVID and free checks sent to both consumers directly AND businesses directly. What happened? The comps got annihilated and stocks went crazy despite an economy that was shut down (purchasing power got destroyed). But now we're 2 years further down the road and while Gov spending has somehow increased past an already unimaginable level, it's not going directly to consumers like it was back then (it is, but not nearly at the same pace or quantity). Now the bulk of the spending is going to contracts with NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, LMT, AMZN cloud, SNOW, BA, etc (you can follow this spend online via SAM.gov - You can even sort by contract value and see who the largest beneficiaries of our dollars are). So, how will comps in retail facing sectors possibly do well compared to that previous period where free money with no strings attached or product / service delivery in return was sent out to everyone? Easy answer - they won't do well. It's impossible.
*FWIW - in one of my many previous lives, I negotiated and signed contracts for the Federal Gov. You probably won't see SNOW on the list in SAM.gov, at least not at a realistic level, because we made an exception for SAM reporting if a contract was classified (the system was FPDS just a couple of years ago, but it has all transitioned to SAM now).
So true and so funny.
AZ--bouncing some.
Posted by auni on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:28 pm
So true and so funny. When I self-check I always feel I should get paid. Since, I'm not trained on this machine I make a lot of mistakes.
Organic vegetables for instance, are always non-organic.
Sometimes, the packages of good meat-cuts stick together and only one gets scanned.
Often, the machine asks if I put an item in the bag. Like it's my fault the scanner didn't scan it... I'm not trained on this machine! The check-out monitor person punches something into their hand-held computer thing, and I always get the thumbs up that every thing is cool and I just carry on.
Next, I scan a produce bag of something like avocados, and the machine asks me how many items??? I don't know, I have 3 avocados but, it seems to me they are all one type of item.
Oh, and that stupidly worded question at the end... "How many bags do I wish to purchase?" None! I don't want to purchase any.
Lastly, I love the free news paper stands by the door on the way out.
The COVID election cycle doesn't
XBI 130 min high per KISS stats
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:24 pm
The COVID election cycle doesn't count, for obvious reasons - but look back at pharma and biotech starting about now in previous election cycles.
Should be close to a
XBI 130 min high per KISS stats
Posted by ekelauer on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:05 pm
Should be close to a buy on this.
Damn, I should have just
SNOW. new CEO bought 31,542 sh at $ 158.52 Stock just ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 05:01 pm
Damn, I should have just bought some calls as a placeholder.
SNOW. new CEO bought 31,542
Posted by Glad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:56 pm
SNOW. new CEO bought 31,542 sh at $ 158.52
Stock just popped 8- 9 points — just hit news
I'm not a KRE fan
DigiNomad - Tx for the mention of KRE leadership.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:49 pm
I'm not a KRE fan currently, as most know, but have to call a spade a spade. It's crushing and pulling IWM along with it. It's not that I hate regional banks, I just know from experience that they are lying to us about the size of the problems they are facing and the probability of escaping without major damage to equity holders. Same story, different decade.
SWIFT announced setting up CDBC
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:48 pm
SWIFT announced setting up CDBC platform within the next 12 - 24 months. I knew this was coming no matter what Janet and JP told in us press conferences, but I was hoping not so fast.
DigiNomad - Tx for the mention
Posted by tradeit007 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:47 pm
DigiNomad - Tx for the mention of KRE leadership.
KRE - I can't believe
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:44 pm
KRE - I can't believe I'm considering a long, but maybe just have to ride the waves. I do think that some fundamental support gives traders an edge even in very short term trades...but many would disagree. It's in prime bull trap area right now though. If anything, it's a short with a tight stop...and then consider reversing long if wrong. Could go with IWM instead but that's a watered down version of what's giving it the juice...if you're a bull.
MDY - continues to rock.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:36 pm
MDY - continues to rock. 2hr has a solid wave 3 look (I know MLA - why bother with count when everything goes up? It's a hard habit to break...hedging is even worse...wastes time AND money instead of just time).
SMR - micro nuclear
Posted by dragonfly28 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:36 pm
SMR - micro nuclear electric power generator co - + 40% today
TNA / MIDU -
Posted by dragonfly28 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:34 pm
TNA / MIDU - small cap / mid cap etf's did pretty well today too. takes a lot of guess work out of picking the winning horse . . . or not
AVTX - my scanner literally
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:27 pm
AVTX - my scanner literally just said "AVTX - the stock is down too much"....first time I've heard that one.
TLT running like it saw
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:22 pm
TLT running like it saw a ghost. Was there some kind of macro announcement in the last hour or so? Janet farted again?
Yep. Gov has to replace
Big day for solar names ENPH FSLR RUN SEDG
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:20 pm
Yep. Gov has to replace Texas losses.
Big day for solar names
Posted by steve on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:16 pm
Big day for solar names ENPH FSLR RUN SEDG
Sheesh. I don't normally call
Went to grab a coffee and my 2 day play ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:09 pm
Sheesh. I don't normally call out gains, but a little trade I had on is not so little anymore. Now up 160% and I'm slapping a hedge on it.
I think that kind of
Almighty Buck (LOL)
Posted by mastermind on 27th of Mar 2024 at 04:09 pm
I think that kind of data is a little deceptive. It just reinforces the effect of long term compounding - in this case compounding of inflation. Obviously a dollar is not what it used to be, but then, people have a lot more of them than they used to, right? And would you have wanted to be around in the 30's when the purchasing power of the dollar was increasing? That's because most people didn't have dollars to spend, so supply of goods outstripped demand for them.