Speculation in TSLA

Not just stock, option IVs have gone ballistic in pricing with these moves.

Here it is - based on 940 pm data; there were 2 updates in the end yesterday with one  posted at 12:30pm  and one at 940pm - there have been several intraday updates and I have always used data from last one of the day   - 3 charts as usual.
1. Rate of growth seems to have stabilized and not going down - a concern for containment, an issue with data collection or a function of infection rates?
2. Case outside China still very small with no sign of uptick
3. Recoveries growing ahead of deaths and mortality rate stable.

Virus data not being updated

We can discuss whether Chinese figures are accurate, but seems like they are not being updated today - draw your own conclusions.
The John Hopkins site gets its data from DXY site in China - all that is there is this data at the moment; looking at supporting data this is just a repeat of the numbers from the prior day.

As of 2020-02-03 14:55 National Statistics data shows

• No change from yesterday

  17341confirmed

Latest stats on virus

1. Semi log graph turning down still and 3 day rate of change marginally lower - hopefully Feb 1 data point was an aberration (again IF data is correct)
2. Rest of world numbers remain tiny and not growing rapidly
3. Recoveries continue to exceed deaths

Market reactions to virus outbreaks

Virus: bad news, good news, good news?

1. Reported cases grew faster day over day and stayed at same growth rate over a 3 day period; first time this has happened since 3 day growth rate started falling on Jan 28.
2. Infections reported outside China still low and not growing rapidly.
3. Recoveries exceed deaths and deaths/infections down to 2.1%

Am aware of many estimates of much higher numbers than reported here; for example, one study suggests 75,000 infections based on modelling impact of each infected person infecting 2.6 others.

No updates yet today - this data as on 11pm Feb 1st from website Matt shared.

Also watch how the death / survivor balance changes - this "should go to 49:1 ratio if death rate is only 2% - but it has crossed positive for survivors for the first time

Less scary...

Put in latest data and numbers so far for today - also added Non-China number - presumably that is accurate if one doubts China data - also that is where risk remains from several thousand Wuhan residents who flew outside China before there were travel restrictions.

A number to watch on the virus perhaps?

I have been following the numbers on the page Matt is also following (and yes I know these are based on Chinese reporting which some think are junk...I acknowledged that last time I posted), but here is one way to look at it and a number to watch for.
Chart has:
- raw data  - raw data so far in bold, day over day percent change, 3 period moving average of day over day change
- I have added a hypothetical point on 12250 for tomorrow - if the numbers are lower than this, the cases  are slowing as they have been since Jan 27 on this data.

Main unknown imho is how many people are infected outside China that will not show up in non-China data yet; on this data alone, the rate of growth in cases reported is slowing and that reflects the Chinese situation as that is the vast majority of cases so far.

The other data points that are relevant to frame the risk are:
- each person is infecting somewhere around 2 to 3 others, much higher than prior virus scares
-  fatality rate seems to be 2 to 3% and is reported to be mainly in older people more susceptible to disease (although this is much higher rate than flu, it is much lower than prior viruses)

In any event, watch tomorrows number to see if it is above or below 12k and by how much.

PS Fully acknowledge not an expert here - just a former scientist trying to frame the issue for myself.

I am not sure how many others here only subscribe to stockcharts to get the url links - I certainly do - so they will loose out by more than just you guys.   

Need to look at semi-log curve to see if rate of change declining - comparison here between arithmetic on left and semi-log on right - does appear to be slowing - only grew 28% day on day down from as high at 100%+ - Yuuge caveats as early and based on Chinese data with 2 week incubation time etc. etc.   As Einstein said (and I ain't no Einstein) compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world - but no news organization understands it.

Went back to look at SARS impact on market and then realized it overlapped with Gulf War - added events to my Dow Jones chart and thought I'd share for those interested.

Newsletter parabola
I redrew the weekly chart with a log scale and put channels on it - the current upthrust is faster than it was in 2017 and that may be enough to give a weak foundation, but it does not look to have gone parabolic yet (although last week poked outside channel depending on how you draw it).  Having said that, the rate of change we have here now is the same as the rate of the overall parabola from 17/18 and so is indeed "en Fuego"

Zacks buy in one of their trading services today - usually spikes price & volume as readers chase move

HAL?
Coiling in "volatility contraction" pattern at lows - testing upper line here - took starter position with 50 day moving average as guide for stop (red); has tested it twice so far.

Started by comments from WDAY and then Morgan Stanley caution:

GDX & GDXJ testing prior lows

At StockCharts, we adjust our historical price data to remove gaps caused by stock splits, dividends and distributions. That may cause our charts to look different from other services that do not perform the same adjustments.

Gold, Bonds and Yen
Gold is not always correlated with bonds - can be inversely correlated for long periods as shown using ten year yield in first chart.  Gold is much more consistently correlated witht the Yen.  90 day correlation used in lower charts.

Nice Wyckoff tests on many industrials - oils, energy, shipping, copper and steels - X example