Pretty sure I saw analogs like this in 1999 that were forecasting doom and missed the last 9 months....

Longer term Bull Bear View

I have traded a lot of these types of systems with Larry Connors - they naturally struggle with VIX levels we have.  Have only thought that a VIX filter would be a good idea to turn off the systems or reduce position size.  Don't know if you have tried that Matt.

TVIX hit 1000.00 exactly - now 877

Max pain for SPY by Friday at 302 .  Not a prediction, but there are a lot of puts to make worthless....

Apologies - intended to be a humourous not a critical comment - will add smiley face next time (if there is one) :)

"Looking better and better" - a pretty low bar to be honest

Agree on keeping systems - you have fully shared stats with us - it is our responsibility for the  trades and the results. Data included in TradeStation report for largest losing trade, e.g trend/pullback was $440.22 but max intra-trade draw-down would be helpful in understanding "max pain", at least in the past.  Interesting that they have not got to that point yet.
As others have said, excellent newsletter with review of past sell offs - thanks.

Finally, semi log charts on John Hopkins virus site...

You are welcome - problem with ST, and I have thoroughly tested it with their backtrader, is that it is very hard to find predictive value in downward forecasts as the market goes up 70%+ of the time.  What you cannot distinguish are mild pullbacks and real doozies - best rule I have seen came from Ian Woodward, sadly deceased now, that once a drawdown exceeds 8% off the highs, the market can go anywhere - up to that point, the odds are in your favor to buy the dip.

but not by much and not often :)  They don't post this bit on twitter...

politicians of all stripes - ideology notwithstanding

Definition changed?

South China Morning Postreported that "hundreds of thousands of workers" returned to work on Monday, attempting to allay fears about the impact of prolonged closures. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China exceeded 42,000 with the death count surpassing 1,000. Chinese health officials changed the definition of a "confirmed case" to exclude asymptomatic patients who tested positive for the virus, according to Apple Daily.

Virus update

1. Rate of decline in "official" Chinese numbers continues to decline
2. Cases outside China going up with no predictable trends established in data; risk  remains as to how many "silent" carriers have arrived in foreign countries that could cause pandemic reaction.
3. Mortality rate ticks up - albeit recent analysis by experts suggests real mortality rate may be lower than previously thought (~1%)

1. Decline continues (although Taiwan Strait Times begs to differ as Matt shared)...time will tell. Funny ( but not "funny" - just odd coincidence) I had 31500 as place holder for continued decline and it came in as 31,522.  I have 34,000 for a continued decline tomorrow.
2. Outside China still small - although I do note they have 2 cases in UK - now actually 3 (2 Chinese students and someone who caught it in Singapore and not Mainland China)
3. Death rate stays low for now and recoveries growing 3x deaths

Virus latest update

1. Growth rate has slowed on last data point - assuming data ok that is, but this looks more reasonable to me.

- contrast arithmetic view on left with linear view in middle - press (and website) showing arithmetic which is misleading; growth rate has slowed now for 10 days
2. No significant cases outside US and not growing.

3. Survivors growing over deaths as expected; also  now true of Hubei which is "ground zero" where there are 549 deaths and 699 recoveries.