Wow - wish my RIG chart really did this - false print in MarketSmith!

FCX up 5% and back inside range - also added OIH and RIG on open - final lows?  No reference levels like FCX to help though

FCX triple bottom?
last time it undercut the prior low, it had a 20% plus run up - now a further low with divergence here

PS Good luck Matt with sorting out the home

Gold at all time highs in Sterling, Euro and Yen

Gold is a small market - GLD has market cap of $40bn, about same as either TGT or WDAY.
GDX is $10bn, GDXJ $5bn
According to MarketSmith, whole Mining Precious Metals group has market cap of $172bn; about same as a couple of FANGs cash balances

I stared at that for some time wondering how much that meant - I then used Sentimentrader.comback-test over same period to see what happens.  Results are 50/50 at best.  I have tested lots of these so called predictors and very few work better than a coin toss - does not stop Twitter filling up with them. Chart reading seems to be superior to me (hence BPT). 

Took data from Matt on SPY Pro and looked at compounding it each year. i.e. raise equity at year end to add in all profits from trades in that year - compounds at about 30% per annum.  Data and equity curve below.  10k becomes 3.9mn - enough for 6,420 years of BPT (unless Matt raises the price in that timeframe of course).

Just stick to the rules you have worked so hard on - and leave it to us to break them!

I have bought puts on BYND ahead of earnings;
30 min chart shows 62% retracement of last swing on declining volume (blue)
Valuation is off the charts
1:1 ABC extension would take it back into the gap up which starts at 110 area (green)
Plan to add if breaks 9 ema
IV rank is lowest it has been and will ramp into earnings due 7/29

2nd Half Outlook
Thanks for newsletters this weekend.
On the subject of the second half of the year, Ciovacco did an interesting video this weekend where he discussed that in depth (on YouTube).
He noted the same data Matt did that the second half is typically weak after the strong first half we had, but then goes into depth on each of the prior occassions and sugests the precedents may not be applicable at the presnt time.  The basic reason he suggests that is that we have only just broken out of a very long conslidation period in the present situation whereas the prior occasions the market was quite extended from any base or support level and so was "tired" and due for a pullback.  Cannot do justice to his video so check it out if it sounds interesting - long video so you may have to hunt around to find that section.

Yield curve; this will be a test...

Everyone isnow looking at 3 month 10 year spread (now inverted) - traditionally, I havefollowed the more usual 2-10 spread (not inverted).

So, does itmatter - chart below is from FRED data and compares the two as far back as the data goes - the shaded areas are recessions that follow an inversion (with a considerable lag, so no need to panic, yet).

The 3 month inversion has led to a 2 year inversion EVERY time so far - EXCEPT now. So will it confirm or is the 2-10 the real signal and the 3 month is a distraction in aFed/ZIRP mad,mad world - we will know soon.

I mentioned FCX when it undercut the low on 9.60 - since them moved up 20% and now having a very high volume support day over 50 DMA

Did gap - so I bought on limit order at 100.01 and it closed at 101.26 so am keeping it

It wont make a lot of difference - here is a comparison of same dollar investments in the two options based on current prices 

I posted a detailed follow up here with screen shots but seems tohave disapeared?  If so, can repost later - if it re-appears, it would be nice

EA has flat level at nice 100 round number inside a base

I trade alot of options - let me illustrate how I make the choice with SPY Pro.
I use OptionVue as an analytical platform; there is a feature called TradeFinder.  I set a target (in this case SPY up 5% in 20 calendar days) to look for optins that will have the highest return.  In this case the scan came up with a 4:1 return for optins around 305/306 strike.  These are only delta 20 as it turns out (for most stocks the program selects delta 30 or so).  I also assume no change in volatility - it may fall with an increase in price.  In any event, this owuld change the numbers to be a little less, but will make littel differnce in ranking.
The issue with going out of the money as far is you suffer time decay; the 85 delta options Matt picks are really a stock substitute and have little theta.
For the same dollar investment though, you can have 25 contracts and, if right, htte upside is quite a bit more.  If you are doing this, I would suggest you assume a complete loss of premium to set you risk level.
Attached are three screen shots as of close of day on Tuesday (OptionVue can go back in time to the prices at that time).
1. The run of option returns for a $1,000 investment ranked by expected return if SPY gains 5% in 15 days.
2. The risk graph of 1 option at 266; differnet timeframes are very close as there is little theta.
3. The risk graph of 25 options at 305; timeframes are widely spaced relfecting the theta.
The solid vertical line is the target - I have highlighted the 27 day line in these graphs - the reward from 1 option is 50% and from 25 OTM options it is over 300%.

Dont be seduced by the extra returns - you risk losing money a lot faster as well!  Hence my comment on sizing risk above.

NASI cross up here

I was thinking of another sub system when I posted that - more to the point, the current entries are included in the systems section and so there is no need to ask here.

I do not listen to all of the updates, especially the "routine" ones on the systems as I trust the systems section and your alert emails to keep me up to date.