It seems like whether its influenza death statistics or this
virus, they need to qualify "who" is dying to know how threatening
it is. For example, just to be extreme, if the 259 deaths so far
worldwide are all people that were in the last 6 months of their
life anyway due to old age or other medical condition, it doesn't
seem like much of a threat at all, but if the deaths are in healthy
adults with no other medical condition or problem, it would give
more reason for worry as a threat to the general population.
Just a death rate with no break out on age group or 'health
before' contracting seems like it could be very misleading on the
actual threat.
yes that's true, however still some of the early stats are
alarming. First off I check this once a day, what I pay
attention to is the slope of the graph, we are all visual traders
here, so the parabolic nature of new cases still stick out to me.
last night one data point slowed down however today that next data
point jumped a lot, thus picking back up the parabolic
slope.
Also the comparison to Sars is not too pretty looking.
Yes for not at least it's mostly China.
And of course regarding the Stock market - for now it's using it
as an excuse to finally have a correction. The market was VERY
overdue, was trading 11% above it's 200 day MA which is super rare,
so a catalyst was all that was needed to start that. However
if this Virus were to continue getting worse and shut down enough
things to cause economic harm then things could get uglier for the
market
anyway surreal times for me to be doing technical analysis on
virus outbreak numbers
if there's any true nerds here - take the raw data and apply it
to Excel and add RSI and MACD indicators so we can look for things
like divergences etc
actually I'm probably the biggest nerd here. I can import
that Virus data into Tradestation and apply some of our technical
stock indicators to it, I'll do that and post the graph
The only people who have died from the coronavirus are in China.
And you are right - How old were the people that died, where
they compromised? The real issue is that it is easily
transmitted and do not have to show symptoms to infect others (
like with the FLU). The public needs to be educated so there
is no "panic" on the streets if you will.
here's the updated curve, I will say a slight positive is that
the last data point is a slight lessening of the parabolic curve.
It's one data point only so we'll have to see the next one
this evening, If that next data point is also flatter that would be
a positive sign
Posted by sonofrebel on 1st of Feb 2020 at 10:31 am
Less scary...
Put in latest data and numbers so far for today - also added
Non-China number - presumably that is accurate if one doubts China
data - also that is where risk remains from several thousand Wuhan
residents who flew outside China before there were travel
restrictions.
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Wuhan Coronavirus vs Saras
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2020 at 12:20 am
kind of a scary graph comparison of timelines
It seems like whether its
Posted by blayden on 1st of Feb 2020 at 06:14 pm
It seems like whether its influenza death statistics or this virus, they need to qualify "who" is dying to know how threatening it is. For example, just to be extreme, if the 259 deaths so far worldwide are all people that were in the last 6 months of their life anyway due to old age or other medical condition, it doesn't seem like much of a threat at all, but if the deaths are in healthy adults with no other medical condition or problem, it would give more reason for worry as a threat to the general population. Just a death rate with no break out on age group or 'health before' contracting seems like it could be very misleading on the actual threat.
yes that's true, however still
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2020 at 10:39 pm
yes that's true, however still some of the early stats are alarming. First off I check this once a day, what I pay attention to is the slope of the graph, we are all visual traders here, so the parabolic nature of new cases still stick out to me. last night one data point slowed down however today that next data point jumped a lot, thus picking back up the parabolic slope.
Also the comparison to Sars is not too pretty looking.
Yes for not at least it's mostly China.
And of course regarding the Stock market - for now it's using it as an excuse to finally have a correction. The market was VERY overdue, was trading 11% above it's 200 day MA which is super rare, so a catalyst was all that was needed to start that. However if this Virus were to continue getting worse and shut down enough things to cause economic harm then things could get uglier for the market
anyway surreal times for me to be doing technical analysis on virus outbreak numbers
if there's any true nerds here - take the raw data and apply it to Excel and add RSI and MACD indicators so we can look for things like divergences etc
actually I'm probably the biggest
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2020 at 10:41 pm
actually I'm probably the biggest nerd here. I can import that Virus data into Tradestation and apply some of our technical stock indicators to it, I'll do that and post the graph
The only people who have
Posted by ssaffer on 1st of Feb 2020 at 06:59 pm
The only people who have died from the coronavirus are in China. And you are right - How old were the people that died, where they compromised? The real issue is that it is easily transmitted and do not have to show symptoms to infect others ( like with the FLU). The public needs to be educated so there is no "panic" on the streets if you will.
here's the updated curve, I
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2020 at 12:45 pm
here's the updated curve, I will say a slight positive is that the last data point is a slight lessening of the parabolic curve. It's one data point only so we'll have to see the next one this evening, If that next data point is also flatter that would be a positive sign
Less scary... Put in latest data
Posted by sonofrebel on 1st of Feb 2020 at 10:31 am
Less scary...
Put in latest data and numbers so far for today - also added Non-China number - presumably that is accurate if one doubts China data - also that is where risk remains from several thousand Wuhan residents who flew outside China before there were travel restrictions.