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Bitcoin ETF approval does not

Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 09:19 pm

Bitcoin ETF approval does not appear to be the real story behind what's going w/Bitcoin.  Bitcoin as Luke Gromen has been describing for a couple of years at least already, is the last functioning smoke alarm telling the truth about inflation and monetary stimulus (because it is not "politically managed" like the gold market as Luke described).  It is probably starting to price in the money printer going burrrrr again, this time to finance our country's deficits by buying treasuries.  Reference this podcast interview and find the 34:46 mark (Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm") where Luke describes it well: On The Margin: Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy Crisis on Apple Podcasts

Maybe because people don't think of stock investing as a business (I'm talking about the typical Robinhood trader, not people here).  How many people keep a journal of their trades for the year like they keep track of inventory as if they are running a store, or how many people think of paying for BPT just as they would have a line item for professional services or R&D as in a normal business.  If they attached the BPT subscription as an overhead cost to their trading P&L then that dynamic may change.

"I'm certainly willing to have these as an added service" - same here

potential W bottom- sometimes the

Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 12:03 pm

potential W bottom- sometimes the simplest answers may be the best.  This would be a classic W bottom if it forms- the positive divergence is not as obvious on indicators such as RSI but on the Chaikin money flow indicator it is very obvious.

the last STS update says

No STS update?

Posted by skwan1940 on 22nd of Oct 2023 at 07:08 pm

the last STS update says 10/19/23.  Also, I noticed something weird with URA.  I have URA in my favorites and in the STS update email on 10/18/23 (which included other things in my favorites that triggered), it didn't say URA went long.  But when I look at the table now (with data as of 10/19/23), it says it went long 10/18/23.  The other strange thing is that even though  it is "long" it says the price is "below" the ATR level.  Matt, can you take a look please, thanks.  note: maybe I am misunderstanding the ATR also, is it the same as the STS?


Well, not to me, the trend didn't turn up recently.  I know BPT publishes trend following indicators like the $NYSI 9 ema and the $NYSI stochastics and those didn't confirm an uptrend.  Personally I use something like 13/34/54 EMA crossoversto buy/sell a 50% allocation to stocks at a time (when 13 crosses 34 and when 13 crosses 54) and those didn't confirm an uptrend.  Before I rejoined BPT this year, I took 8 years off (I was a member years ago before) to do real estate and this is how I invested during those years and I was able to do ok by riding established trends.  Of course I never caught the bottom or the top.  I think what we are talking about ultimately is the holy grail of trading which doesn't exist: when to do mean reversion and when to do trend-following.  Doing mean reversion is harder IMO because you are a "pioneer" who takes the arrows (you are stepping up the same time the big boys of Wall Street are) versus being a "settler" who comes afterwards with your covered wagon to settle the land (when a trend is established).  Matt's mean reversion systems are a courageous effort because in markets the mean reversion rubber band can be stretched farther than folks can imagine.  One needs to be mentally tough to do it.

Everytime this type of thing happens I wonder why I even bother with the reversion to mean concept.  Why don’t I just trust the old Wall Street adage “the trend is your friend”.   Hopefully this is W bottom on the daily chart.

same here.  I’m long the

Remember today is OPEX

Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Oct 2023 at 10:35 am

same here.  I’m long the mean reversion systems also 

maybe the $NYSI 9 ema

mean reversion systems comments

Posted by skwan1940 on 16th of Oct 2023 at 11:19 am

maybe the $NYSI 9 ema for S&P will go positive today, it seems close

nice glow on the face. 

SPX 5 min

Posted by skwan1940 on 14th of Oct 2023 at 01:36 pm

nice glow on the face.  now let's get one of you, Matt!

I searched the BPT website for Luke Gromen and I don't see his name mentioned before.  I have been following Luke Gromen for years (very savvy guy) and I can say that his ideas on dollar hegemony, US deficits, etc. have long pre dated those of Druckenmiller, Zoltan, Tudor Jones, etc. (the people we have recently seen in the media now making these ideas more popular).  He recently did a RealVision interview (link pasted here) in which he talked about the Net International Investment Position of the USA and how it specifically affects the USA dollar in a way that it has not historically (compared to other fiat currencies) and how the "cleanest dirty shirt" argument NO longer works when looking at the dollar compared to other fiat currencies.  It is at 0:56:28 of the interview.

I would like to know this too please,  been waiting for long daily signals for the STS tables for SPY and QQQ to show up but they haven't

I just watched the video.  It's awesome.  Thanks for the outstanding work Matt.  I feel blessed to be a subscriber to this service.  note: I didn't see the CCI system in the list, so I assume there are 22 systems, even better than 21!

it appears 2 days ago

OVX Crude Volatility

Posted by skwan1940 on 11th of Oct 2023 at 11:36 am

it appears 2 days ago $OVX closed back inside its BBands after closing out of it

Solar stocks are impacted by the cost of capital (interest rates) so if yields are going to take a breather, should benefit the sector

I remember that too from years ago - just curious do you still trade for that hedge fund?

interestingly, the KISS STS went long UNG on Oct 6th also

couldn't open the link because

Trading View chart

Posted by skwan1940 on 9th of Oct 2023 at 10:48 am

couldn't open the link because it says "please ask the owner to enable chart layout sharing, or to publish it by clicking the Publish Idea button."

Hi Matt, in the newsletter chart 19 it shows $INX going long on the KISS system with a stop at 4216 but when I look at the KISS STS table it still shows $INX is flat.  Do you know why?  Thanks

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