SBSW breaking out of the weekly wedge; also there was a Daily KISS signal yesterday.

URA 78 has been a beast, thanks Matt, I'm in that one; in the past if trading on my own, I would've sold most at $28 when it was testing the downtrend/200dma/top of the W bottom pattern

UCO 130 min at interesting juncture, stop almost triggered w/today's decline but it hasn't yet

profmel thank you for the kind words; I have learned a lot about my own personality from trading since 1995.  A trading mentor told me once that technical analysis is part "science" and part "art".  The "science" part can be mastered faster than the "art" part; the "art" part will haunt us for the rest of our lives and drive us insane at times.  These days I am trying to stick more to the "science" side, but that means going against my own ego.

By definition, if one does the KISS systems, that should not be called a buy and hold strategy.  Buy and hold is buy and hold.  Doing KISS w/the STS stops shouldn't be considered buy and hold.  And I think it has been shown with statistics (especially on the HP KISS systems) that doing EVERY trade on the KISS systems should result in profitability over the long run.  There are times where there is choppiness, but that is expected, because these types of strategies are trend-following strategies and we don't always know when the actual TREND will get started.  If one is looking for higher % stats, then that's what the mean reversion systems are for (but that's a different animal, and a different mentality), but trend-following systems are going to have those fits and starts.  It's like riding a bucking bronco or catching that wave when surfing, or whatever analogy you want to make, but there are times when several attempts need to be made to catch that longer-term trend.  When we all started trading, no doubt we first heard the saying "cut your losers and let your winners run"- well the KISS signals for each security/stock is like a microcosm of that- one is basically casting out the losers (losing trades, hopefully quickly) but then hanging onto that longer-term winner that establishes a trend.  

In addition, it's called a system for a reason.  If there is a lot of subjectivity/judgment involved, then it should be called an INDICATOR, not a SYSTEM.  And then we get into a slippery slope.  What happens when the stock stops out at the STS but has a hammer candlestick which potentially signal a reversal?  What happens when it is a news driven event gap down causing the STS to stop out, like a geopolitical event?  and so on and so forth.  What rules would one put in place to handle those situations if we aren't going to follow the SYSTEM?  Besides having to have the astuteness to do discretionary trading, there are a lot of folks who don't and want to follow a system completely.  The other part of this is "the mental capital," and that is something rarely talked about.  If we are not following a system, we may need to babysit the trades all day long in front of the computer, being aware of market news, react to the stock making a 5% gap up, and so on and so forth.  Besides, that, the other part of "the mental capital" side is a bit more destructive, and we've all been guilty of that (I have for sure)...the REGRET part of it.  Let's say I ignore the STS stop out.  Take Tesla today, as an example, where the stock tanked on the underwhelming RoboTaxi rollout last night, hoping for a bounce-back rally on Monday.  Over the weekend, I might think, did I make the right decision?  What if, instead of a bounce-back, we get a gap down on Monday?  What would my rules be?  Should I just sell half now after hours?  Should I hold and say, "no man, the RSI5 is at 17, it NEEDs to bounce to the 50% level at least."  Another example is the recent YINN 78 trade.  HP KISS got in at $21.78.  YINN proceeded to rally out of that inverse head and shoulders around the $23 area and next thing we know, it's at $32.  At $32, it was 3 standard deviations above its 200dma.  Every instinct in our trading body was screaming "sell!"  But ultimately it went to almost $60, and the HP KISS STS stopped out at $41.61.  TBH, if it were trading that, I would've sold all of my position at $32 because every oscillator I tracked was extremely overbought.  Did the HP KISS catch the exact top?  No, but because it had its own methodology, it did better than I would have done by trying to hang onto the trend as long as possible.  So this type of "mental capital" destruction wears on a trader over time.  And I think a lot of folks will zoom out and say, "I want a SYSTEM" where I can set my stops, react to the STS stop alerts, maybe do a quick review before the market closes," and that's it.  That's good enough for me.

that's a good idea considering how popular TA has become (sometimes "everybody" is noticing the same pattern)

interesting that the HP KISS went long XBI after the recovery from the broken trendline

sounds interesting

PALL palladium acting constructive after recent test of 200 dma

This week the $MOVE index  went to 2 std deviations above its 200dma for the first time since early 2023 and almost a 2024 YTD high.  Harley Bassman, its creator, wrote that once that index starts getting near 150, it means the Fed is losing control of the Treasury market (search "MOVE index" from this Luke Gromen interview).  

yeah, HYG is still at 2 std. deviations above its 200 dma; it's still pretty high

yes, Matt covered it just today below (and days earlier, various times) and also with an email yesterday to High Performance KISS subscribers about YINN going up 100% in 2 weeks

GBTC 39 HP, there's a new STS of 51.88 but the current price of GBTC is $47.92.  Can someone take a look at this (James?)?  Thx

I thought that was interesting as well- it was a slight breach of the STS

PALL testing the 200dma

I've posted about Luke Gromen before on this site (I posted in October 2023, this: post about Luke Gromen).  Luke is simply the best and he truly understands what is going on with the US fiscal dominance, the dollar, multi currency energy pricing, why the Fed is truly lowering rates (to service US debt), Gold as the end game, etc.

TSLA 130 - the stop hasn't changed since 7/8/24 which was before the system went long on 8/15/24- Matt or James can you take a look when you get a chance, thanks  breakpointtrades.com/sts_parse/view_chart.php?s=TSLA&g=file&p=130&sys=1

MSTR30 new flat today; so at least I know things are working

Agreed, BPT is a smorgasbord like you said years ago and the beauty is we can pick and choose.  Just like you have different settings for the SPY and MES in the mean reversion systems, it's good to have different options.