Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Nov 2017 at 01:52 pm
General Electric (GE) now has a market cap of $153.6 billion.
That’s still larger than 93% of the stocks in the S&P 500, but
it ranks 33rd from the top at this point. Ten years ago, GE
was the second largest company in the S&P 500 behind only Exxon
Mobil (XOM). Since then, GE has lost $240.7 billion in market
cap. During that same 10 year time frame the S&P was up some
77+%
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Nov 2017 at 12:30 pm
60 min RUT chart for the last 6 days has a clear inverse
H&S pattern in place at the present time. It measures back up
to about 1499 (about 1.75% from here) if it plays out.
This month, the CAPE ratio in the US is just above 30. That is a
high ratio. Indeed, between 1881 and today, the average CAPE ratio
has stood at just 16.8. Moreover, it has exceeded 30 only twice
during that period: in 1929 and in 1997-2002.
Referring to my compilation
of monthly S&P Composite and related data, I found that
there have been just 13 bear markets in the US since 1871. The peak
months before the bear markets occurred in 1892, 1895, 1902, 1906,
1916, 1929, 1934, 1937, 1946, 1961, 1987, 2000, and 2007. A couple
of notorious stock-market collapses – in 1968-70 and in 1973-74 –
are not on the list, because they were more protracted and
gradual.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Nov 2017 at 12:50 pm
It appears that this Roberts' chart is only pointing out
the previous extreme conditions that were followed by significant
Bear market pullbacks. If you were to follow his site on a daily
basis, he has been consistently warning that the market has a lot
of characteristics of these two previous extremes that led to
significant declines. Perhaps the difference in today's condition
is that Central banks continue to prop up markets any time that
there seems to be a sniff of a potential major
pullback.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Nov 2017 at 12:07 pm
The divergence from long-term trends can also be seen in the chart
below which is the deviation of the market from its 6-year
(72-month) moving average. Historically, when the deviation has
been greater than 20% from the mean, corrections and reversions
have occurred.
With the
current deviation 26% above the long-term mean and pushing
2-standard deviations, investors are being
“willfully blind” to
the risks of a short-term correction.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Nov 2017 at 11:52 am
The strength in Copper has the Gold/Copper ratio below
doing something it hasn’t done in a long time! The Gold/Doc
Copper ratio has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past
decade. The ratio of late is now breaking below 10-year rising
support at (2).
When attempting to decide on what metals to own, this break
of 10-year rising support could be sending a very important
message to the metals market and could be sending an important
macro message as well.
Zero Hedge - "In this historic, for global markets, year we are
fast running out of things "the market has never done before."
For today's entry we go to Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid who looks at
the S&P's performance in the month of October, and writes that
the broad index, which ended the supposedly most volatile month of
the year 2.33% higher (with the lowest October realized vol on
record) finished with a positive total return, meaning that the
index has now seen a positive t
otal return for all
10 months so far this year, the first time that this has happened
in the 90 years Deutsche Bank has data for. It's not just 2017,
however, because as Reid notes, "if you go beyond the calendar year
end, October now marks the 12th positive month in succession which
equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936." In other words,
the S&P has not had a single month of negative total returns
since Trump was elected almost exactly one year ago."
Posted by sbaxman111 on 31st of Oct 2017 at 11:28 am
The current overbought condition,
where the WEEKLY RSI is over 70, has only
occurred only a handful of times over the last 20-years. While the
reading alone has not always been indicative of the onset of a
full-fledged bear market, corrections in the market were often
close by. With the market more overbought now than at any other
time over the past 20-years, some caution is advised.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 30th of Oct 2017 at 12:24 pm
Through the middle of October, the average short interest as a
percentage of float (SIPF) in the four FANG stocks was a minuscule
2.3%. While it is not uncommon to see some growth stocks have
10% or more of their float sold short, that isn’t the case with the
FANG stocks. As recently as 2013, their average SIPF level
was over 10%, and back in 2009 (before Facebook, when it was just
“ANG”) the average SIPF level was above 20%!
Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 02:20 pm
The Nasdaq 100 Index has added over $180 billion in market cap
today - the biggest addition since the day after Aug 2015's Flash
Crash...That is more market cap than 472 of the S&P 500 stocks.
There are only 28 names with a larger total market value in the
S&P 500 than Tech names has added so far today.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 12:53 pm
Interestingly, the sectors below with the most drawdowns are
perceived to be the most defensive ones. Energy is the only sector
currently in a 5% drawdown (down 10.50%, but up from negative
23.26% at its worst on 8/17/17).
# of 5%+ Drawdowns over past 400 trading days…
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S&P Sectors
Posted by sbaxman111 on 17th of Nov 2017 at 10:47 am
What follows when the S&P is up all year
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Nov 2017 at 02:18 pm
GE Market Cap loss
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Nov 2017 at 01:52 pm
General Electric (GE) now has a market cap of $153.6 billion. That’s still larger than 93% of the stocks in the S&P 500, but it ranks 33rd from the top at this point. Ten years ago, GE was the second largest company in the S&P 500 behind only Exxon Mobil (XOM). Since then, GE has lost $240.7 billion in market cap. During that same 10 year time frame the S&P was up some 77+%
Dogs of the Dow performance YTD
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Nov 2017 at 03:18 pm
Kimble - Nikkei at 50% retrace
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Nov 2017 at 02:27 pm
The chart above highlights that the Nikkei 225 is at its 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its 1989 highs and 2009 lows as well as testing it’s 1997 highs at the same time at (3). While testing this key retracement level, the Nikkei could be creating a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick pattern) at (3).
While the Nikkei is testing what could be an important price point, London & France could be testing the tops of rising channels at the same time.
RUT H&S Pattern
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Nov 2017 at 12:30 pm
60 min RUT chart for the last 6 days has a clear inverse H&S pattern in place at the present time. It measures back up to about 1499 (about 1.75% from here) if it plays out.
Shiller Cape ratio
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Nov 2017 at 04:03 pm
This month, the CAPE ratio in the US is just above 30. That is a high ratio. Indeed, between 1881 and today, the average CAPE ratio has stood at just 16.8. Moreover, it has exceeded 30 only twice during that period: in 1929 and in 1997-2002.
Referring to my compilation of monthly S&P Composite and related data, I found that there have been just 13 bear markets in the US since 1871. The peak months before the bear markets occurred in 1892, 1895, 1902, 1906, 1916, 1929, 1934, 1937, 1946, 1961, 1987, 2000, and 2007. A couple of notorious stock-market collapses – in 1968-70 and in 1973-74 – are not on the list, because they were more protracted and gradual.
S&P Sector Market Cap gains
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Nov 2017 at 03:59 pm
Historical S&P Rallies
Posted by sbaxman111 on 9th of Nov 2017 at 01:02 pm
Historical One Year Dow Gains after a Presidential Election
Posted by sbaxman111 on 9th of Nov 2017 at 12:30 pm
What about 1994,1997, 1998, 2015 how far above ma where ...
Roberts - SPX Deviation from the long term mean
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Nov 2017 at 12:50 pm
It appears that this Roberts' chart is only pointing out the previous extreme conditions that were followed by significant Bear market pullbacks. If you were to follow his site on a daily basis, he has been consistently warning that the market has a lot of characteristics of these two previous extremes that led to significant declines. Perhaps the difference in today's condition is that Central banks continue to prop up markets any time that there seems to be a sniff of a potential major pullback.
BSpoke - Overbought streaks in the current Bull market
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Nov 2017 at 12:31 pm
Roberts - SPX Deviation from the long term mean
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Nov 2017 at 12:07 pm
The divergence from long-term trends can also be seen in the chart below which is the deviation of the market from its 6-year (72-month) moving average. Historically, when the deviation has been greater than 20% from the mean, corrections and reversions have occurred. With the current deviation 26% above the long-term mean and pushing 2-standard deviations, investors are being “willfully blind” to the risks of a short-term correction.
Kimble - Gold/Copper ratio
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Nov 2017 at 11:52 am
The strength in Copper has the Gold/Copper ratio below doing something it hasn’t done in a long time! The Gold/Doc Copper ratio has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past decade. The ratio of late is now breaking below 10-year rising support at (2).
When attempting to decide on what metals to own, this break of 10-year rising support could be sending a very important message to the metals market and could be sending an important macro message as well.
ZH - S&P Total returns
Posted by sbaxman111 on 1st of Nov 2017 at 11:34 am
Zero Hedge - "In this historic, for global markets, year we are fast running out of things "the market has never done before."
For today's entry we go to Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid who looks at the S&P's performance in the month of October, and writes that the broad index, which ended the supposedly most volatile month of the year 2.33% higher (with the lowest October realized vol on record) finished with a positive total return, meaning that the index has now seen a positive t otal return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time that this has happened in the 90 years Deutsche Bank has data for. It's not just 2017, however, because as Reid notes, "if you go beyond the calendar year end, October now marks the 12th positive month in succession which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936." In other words, the S&P has not had a single month of negative total returns since Trump was elected almost exactly one year ago."
Kimble - crude oil weekly
Posted by sbaxman111 on 31st of Oct 2017 at 01:56 pm
Weekly RSI-14 over 70%
Posted by sbaxman111 on 31st of Oct 2017 at 11:28 am
The current overbought condition, where the WEEKLY RSI is over 70, has only occurred only a handful of times over the last 20-years. While the reading alone has not always been indicative of the onset of a full-fledged bear market, corrections in the market were often close by. With the market more overbought now than at any other time over the past 20-years, some caution is advised.
FANG SIPF
Posted by sbaxman111 on 30th of Oct 2017 at 12:24 pm
Through the middle of October, the average short interest as a percentage of float (SIPF) in the four FANG stocks was a minuscule 2.3%. While it is not uncommon to see some growth stocks have 10% or more of their float sold short, that isn’t the case with the FANG stocks. As recently as 2013, their average SIPF level was over 10%, and back in 2009 (before Facebook, when it was just “ANG”) the average SIPF level was above 20%!
NDX market cap
Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 02:20 pm
The Nasdaq 100 Index has added over $180 billion in market cap today - the biggest addition since the day after Aug 2015's Flash Crash...That is more market cap than 472 of the S&P 500 stocks. There are only 28 names with a larger total market value in the S&P 500 than Tech names has added so far today.
Sector drawdowns
Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 12:53 pm
Interestingly, the sectors below with the most drawdowns are perceived to be the most defensive ones. Energy is the only sector currently in a 5% drawdown (down 10.50%, but up from negative 23.26% at its worst on 8/17/17).
# of 5%+ Drawdowns over past 400 trading days…
