Crude Oil has rallied for the past few months, could it be peaking? Joe Friday suggests Crude finds itself at a key  inflection point for it and its Fear Index (OVX).

Below looks at Crude Oil futures over the past decade-

Crude Oil rally of late has it testing 6-year falling resistance as its  fear index (OVX)  is testing 2015 lows at the same time.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– If Crude breaks support and OVX breaks resistance at (4), Crude could be a good prospect to short, as selling pressure in Crude could pick up.

The stock market rally of late might get a little nervous if Crude would happen to break down and OVX breaks out. What Crude does here will be important for Crude Oil and the broad market in general, as traders now own a crowded trade, similar to what they did back at the highs in 2014.

This year's Spy Pro signals, using a 100% all in approach for each trade, and an end of day etf price for exits instead of MOO prices, has produced the following result:

The XIV-VXX combination is up 61.58% YTD as of the close on 10-2-17. The TNA-TZA combination is up +28.67% YTD as of last night's close. Both strategies have been "IN" the market for 61 market days so far this year, including today. Just "Slightly better" than buying and holding.

Both of these approaches, however, aren't really suited for a lot of investors due to their day to day volatility.

Things may about to get a little more exciting -  entering the final months of 2017, that last digit doesn’t bode well, if history is any indication .

As Bloomberg reports,  some of the biggest fourth-quarter declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have occurred in years ending in seven, the worst being in a Black-Monday plagued 1987.

...as 2017 earnings expectations hit  year-to-date lows...

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/4-warnings-for-the-bull-market/

At the moment(near 2:45) the 60 min RUT "Squeeze Pattern" that I posted about last week once again has its ADX 7 indicator above the 60% line. In addition the 60 min RUT chart has an RSI-14 value and RSI-21 value above 70%. The last time this 3 way combination happened was back on Sept 1st. The next day the RUT experienced a nice pullback from its short-term extremely overbought condition.

Profit taking before the close could certainly alter this possibility.

“ With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007, it also suggests investors are now functionally ‘all in.'”

“Here is the point, despite ongoing commentary about mountains of “ cash on the sidelines,” this is far from the case. This leaves the current advance in the markets almost solely in the realm of Central Bank activity.”

Doug Kass -  I'm Not Afraid of a Bear Market, I Just Don't Want to Be There for It

Joe Friday Just The Facts– Potential “Eiffel Tower Pattern” could be in play for Bitcoin. If investors experience the left side of the Eiffel Tower Pattern, it is possible to experience the right side as well.

Will be interesting months from now to see if the right side of the Eiffel tower is experienced.  An important test of  support is taking place this morning at the 3,000-3,100 zone! Important for Bitcoin bulls that this support holds!

On my 60 minute chart one of the indicators I watch for is a "squeeze pattern" derived from the combination of two indicators. The PPO with a 12,26,3 formula, and the ADX-7.

When the ADX 7 achieves a value above 60 on the 60 min RUT chart, the statistical odds increase that a short-term reversal is likely. So far in 2017, each time the ADX-7 has gone over the 60 level, a reversal has followed in the near future. In today's case, this is the 7th time that ADX-7 has gone over 70% - increasing further the short-term odds of a near term reversal.

The previous dates in 2017 where ADX-7 has gone over 70% are Jan25th, Feb 13th, Mar 31st, April 25th, Aug 18th, Sept 1st, Sept 13th

This is the 14th time in 2017 the ADX-7 has gone above 60 on the 60 min RUT chart, and the 8th time this year it has signaled a potential reversal to the downside. 

Of course, the ADX-7 indicator does NOT signal a long or short possibility - it is simply an indication of the current strength of the underlying short-term move in the index or stock. In this case the PPO indicator determines if the current short-term trend is overbought or oversold. Today the PPO for the RUT index is at a position above +0.40 and has experienced an internal line crossover to the downside. So, this squeeze pattern would indicate a potential move to the downside.

In addition to this current RUT "squeeze pattern", the 60 min RSI-14 and RSI-21 indicators are both above the 70% line. This pattern doesn't occur very often from a statistical basis. The 60 min ULT 7,14,28 indicator is also above the upper 70 line for a second straight day. 

The daily RSI-2 for RUT is currently at 96.54%. But at the beginning of September it took 2 days above 99.6% to finally trigger a short-term reversal. 

Other than collecting a nice dividend, it has been painful to own XOM over the past 6-years and the past decade, as its performance has been flat. Could this lagging performance be about to end? Exxon finds itself testing an important line in the sand below, that could tell us a ton about its future-

Line (1) has been support/resistance several times at each (2) over the past 30-years. The decline over the past couple of years has XOM testing support line (1) at (3). While testing this line, XOM could be forming a bullish at (3).

Six years ago this week, the Power of the Pattern shared that “Gold could be flat to down for years to come!” Below looks at the performance of Gold, Silver, GDX and GDXJ since the post on 9/1/11-

Could the struggles of the metals markets be about to end? Mother of all “Bullish Patterns” in play for Gold? Could be, check out the chart below-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Even though Gold has been down hard the past 6-years, it did NOT break below rising support off the 2001 lows, which was tested at last years lows. This is a long-term positive.

Another anti timing, buy and hold your asset allocation guy. I wonder then how Goldman Sachs made more than $100 million a day in trading for 130+ market days a few years back????

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-06/the-fickle-fortunes-of-market-timing