Posted by sbaxman111 on 9th of Jan 2018 at 04:31 pm
Since March 16, 2016, as of January 9, the S&P 500 has gone
for 387 trading sessions without a 5% draw down. If the trend
persists, in just 9 more days this will be the longest stretch
without such a draw down in history.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Jan 2018 at 02:51 pm
Lance Roberts' latest article today points out that starting on
1-1-09, some estimated $33 trillion of various financial infusion
programs resulted in a growth estimate for the economy of just
$2.64 trillion dollars. Foe every 12.5 dollars infused into the
economy, it grew by just $1.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 03:45 pm
On my 60 min NDX chart at 3:30: I look at a 60 min PPO
12-26-3 on top, combined with an ADX 7 below it to get a "squeeze
pattern". The ADX portion is currently above the 80 line, and the
PPO has rolled over slightly to the downside. The ADX above 80 is
only the second time it has hit that level in the last 2+ years.
The last one occurred right at the start of the move up in Nov of
2016. This combination fits historically as a pretty reliable
signal for a potential reversal. One pause, though, to consider,
comes from the "outside event" of the recent tax bill
passage, which certainly can skew the normal 2-5 consecutive
day RSI-2 patterns that usually occur in my data. Today is a day #5
pattern for the RUT, SPX, and NDX. The election (another outside
event) in 2016 helped trigger a 16 day low to high move in the RUT
that saw 9 days in a row above 99% for the RSI-2, and concluded
with a 100 reading on the 16th day. In 15+ years worth of data that
I keep, this length of pattern had never happened before.
The NDX 60 minute chart also has RSI-14 and RSI-21 levels above
the upper line for 3 consecutive days - a rare technical pattern on
a historic basis. On a daily chart, the CCI,20 is right at
the +200 level, another piece that has a good track record of
warning of a reversal. The daily 20,2 %B indicator is above the
upper 1.00 line, and adds to the extreme overbought
picture.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 10:14 am
John Lonski, on Fox Business this morning, "fearlessly"
predicted that the market wouldn't even have more than a 1-2%
pullback at any point for the entire upcoming year. What a relief
that we can now all go out and leverage everything we've got to the
hilt, and not worry at all about what the next 360 days will hold
for stocks.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 4th of Jan 2018 at 01:41 pm
"The Dogs of the Dow". Upon closer inspection, the strategy
appears all bark and no bite. Over the last twenty years, from 1998
– 2017, the annual Dogs of the Dow list returned +370%, trailing
the Dow’s +397% result over the same period.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 4th of Jan 2018 at 10:39 am
ZH - After closing at a record low last night below 9, VIX is
trading with an 8 handle this morning (amid somewhat chaotic
trading).
VIX has never traded below 9 two days in a row,
ever. As noted yesterday,
it's only traded below 9.0 on seven days since the index was
created 28 years ago - six of them in the last six months, the
other in Dec 1993.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Jan 2018 at 01:55 am
At 424 days the S&P has now experienced the longest rally
ever without experiencing at least a 3% correction. And we are in
the 2nd longest rally ever at 554 days for the S&P w/o at least
a 5% correction.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 29th of Dec 2017 at 03:38 pm
The daily RUT chart I use currently has the Wm%2 indicator
moving from above the upper -20 line to below the -80 line in just
one day. This pattern doesn't happen very often, and usually is
followed by a reversal the following day. I also have other
short-term 60 min signals currently providing a new Long signal to
go with it. My "divergence" chart is also providing a new reversion
long signal for RUT. And, it's certainly possible that new
money will flow into the market on Tuesday for the normal first day
of the year reason - especially within an overall bullish
condition. The caveat here though is that the RSI-2 for the RUT has
only pulled back to the 31% area...not exactly an extreme reading
to trade of off.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 26th of Dec 2017 at 05:39 pm
On a number of previous occasions I have posted about how I
count consecutive day patterns using end of day RSI-2 daily
values for the RUT, and other major indexes.I happen to
prefer the RUT. These RSI-2 patterns can be simply up, down,
up, down type moves that I count as a 2 day pattern in my
methodology. Unless there is a significant one day move in RSI-2
values from one extreme reading to another extreme reading, these 2
day up-down moves can be more difficult to enter and exit as a
"pattern". But, I find it statistically meaningful that a
significant majority of these patterns go from high to low values,
or low to high values in 3 and 4 day moves. So far in 2017 (thru
12-26) I count 32 three day patterns, 15 four day patterns, 5 five
day patterns, 2 six day patterns, 3 seven day patterns, and 3 eight
day patterns. This data tells us that there are a lot of
short-term, reversion patterns to trade off of - even when the
value in the VIX is quite low by historical standards. 78% of the
non "up, down, up, down" moves so far in 2017 have lasted
just 3 or 4 days and then reversed. If I add in the 5 day moves,
RUT patterns have reversed 86.6% of the time. But, of course,
we all "know" no one can accurately "time" the market by
successfully getting in and out while going 100% to cash.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Nov 2017 at 03:52 pm
An especially interesting observations goes to the leadership of
the 24% rally since Trump's election, which - while hardly a
surprise - was largely driven by a handfull of companies, or ten to
be precise.
As SocGen calculates,
just 10 contributors of the S&P 500’s bull run have accounted
for 33% of the S&P 500 performance. The bank also
points out that
all of the companies listed below have seen their P/Es expand over
the last 12 months, in some cases - like Nvidia, WalMart,
Boeing and Amazon - dramatically. In fact, only three
companies (Apple and the two banks) have 12-month P/Es that are
below the market average (18x). Lastly, keep in mind that except
Amazon, all of the companies already pay a corporate tax rate
below the current US federal tax rate (35%), and five companies
even pay a tax rate that is below the 20% rate targeted by Trump’s
tax reform.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 17th of Nov 2017 at 10:57 am
Following this month's drop in junk bond prices and the 40 bps
spread widening in high yield last week - the largest since
November 2016 - Bank of America has come up with an apt title for
its weekly fund flow report: "
Nightmare on Bond Street"...... and with good
reason:
last week, US junk bond funds and ETFs reported a $4.43bn outflow
this past week - the third largest outflow on record and the
largest since August 2014. This follows a smaller
$0.94Bn outflow the prior week. Non-US HY contributed an additional
$2.3bn worth of redemptions,
bringing the global junk outflow figure to -$6.7bn, also the 3rd
largest ever.
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Since March 16, 2016, as
Posted by sbaxman111 on 9th of Jan 2018 at 04:31 pm
Since March 16, 2016, as of January 9, the S&P 500 has gone for 387 trading sessions without a 5% draw down. If the trend persists, in just 9 more days this will be the longest stretch without such a draw down in history.
Lance Roberts' latest article today
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Jan 2018 at 02:51 pm
Lance Roberts' latest article today points out that starting on 1-1-09, some estimated $33 trillion of various financial infusion programs resulted in a growth estimate for the economy of just $2.64 trillion dollars. Foe every 12.5 dollars infused into the economy, it grew by just $1.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-chart-book-q4-2017-most-important-charts/
On my 60 min NDX
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 03:45 pm
On my 60 min NDX chart at 3:30: I look at a 60 min PPO 12-26-3 on top, combined with an ADX 7 below it to get a "squeeze pattern". The ADX portion is currently above the 80 line, and the PPO has rolled over slightly to the downside. The ADX above 80 is only the second time it has hit that level in the last 2+ years. The last one occurred right at the start of the move up in Nov of 2016. This combination fits historically as a pretty reliable signal for a potential reversal. One pause, though, to consider, comes from the "outside event" of the recent tax bill passage, which certainly can skew the normal 2-5 consecutive day RSI-2 patterns that usually occur in my data. Today is a day #5 pattern for the RUT, SPX, and NDX. The election (another outside event) in 2016 helped trigger a 16 day low to high move in the RUT that saw 9 days in a row above 99% for the RSI-2, and concluded with a 100 reading on the 16th day. In 15+ years worth of data that I keep, this length of pattern had never happened before.
The NDX 60 minute chart also has RSI-14 and RSI-21 levels above the upper line for 3 consecutive days - a rare technical pattern on a historic basis. On a daily chart, the CCI,20 is right at the +200 level, another piece that has a good track record of warning of a reversal. The daily 20,2 %B indicator is above the upper 1.00 line, and adds to the extreme overbought picture.
https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2018/01/gold-bulls-gotta-love-pattern-says-joe-friday/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Gold+Bulls-+Gotta+Love+this+pattern+says+Joe+Friday%21&utm_campaign=Daily+Kimble+Blog+Posts+RSS
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 01:23 pm
https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2018/01/gold-bulls-gotta-love-pattern-says-joe-friday/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Gold+Bulls-+Gotta+Love+this+pattern+says+Joe+Friday%21&utm_campaign=Daily+Kimble+Blog+Posts+RSS
John Lonski, on Fox Business
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Jan 2018 at 10:14 am
John Lonski, on Fox Business this morning, "fearlessly" predicted that the market wouldn't even have more than a 1-2% pullback at any point for the entire upcoming year. What a relief that we can now all go out and leverage everything we've got to the hilt, and not worry at all about what the next 360 days will hold for stocks.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/key-u-s-stock-market-levels-to-watch-in-2018/
Posted by sbaxman111 on 4th of Jan 2018 at 02:35 pm
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/key-u-s-stock-market-levels-to-watch-in-2018/
"The Dogs of the Dow".
Posted by sbaxman111 on 4th of Jan 2018 at 01:41 pm
"The Dogs of the Dow". Upon closer inspection, the strategy appears all bark and no bite. Over the last twenty years, from 1998 – 2017, the annual Dogs of the Dow list returned +370%, trailing the Dow’s +397% result over the same period.
ZH - After closing at
Posted by sbaxman111 on 4th of Jan 2018 at 10:39 am
ZH - After closing at a record low last night below 9, VIX is trading with an 8 handle this morning (amid somewhat chaotic trading). VIX has never traded below 9 two days in a row, ever. As noted yesterday, it's only traded below 9.0 on seven days since the index was created 28 years ago - six of them in the last six months, the other in Dec 1993.
At 424 days the S&P
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Jan 2018 at 01:55 am
At 424 days the S&P has now experienced the longest rally ever without experiencing at least a 3% correction. And we are in the 2nd longest rally ever at 554 days for the S&P w/o at least a 5% correction.
Without knowing for sure -
LINU Can someone explain how a stock can move ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Jan 2018 at 04:18 pm
Without knowing for sure - Sounds like classic "pump and dump" activity
Revisiting the 10 Rues of
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Jan 2018 at 02:20 pm
Revisiting the 10 Rues of Investing
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-revisiting-bob-farrells-10-rules/
Spx went to 2673.81 at
Anyone else see this quotes discrepancy?CME Equotes is my quotes ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 29th of Dec 2017 at 06:12 pm
Spx went to 2673.81 at the close on stock charts - down from 2685.86 just prior to 3:30
The daily RUT chart I
Posted by sbaxman111 on 29th of Dec 2017 at 03:38 pm
The daily RUT chart I use currently has the Wm%2 indicator moving from above the upper -20 line to below the -80 line in just one day. This pattern doesn't happen very often, and usually is followed by a reversal the following day. I also have other short-term 60 min signals currently providing a new Long signal to go with it. My "divergence" chart is also providing a new reversion long signal for RUT. And, it's certainly possible that new money will flow into the market on Tuesday for the normal first day of the year reason - especially within an overall bullish condition. The caveat here though is that the RSI-2 for the RUT has only pulled back to the 31% area...not exactly an extreme reading to trade of off.
On a number of previous
Posted by sbaxman111 on 26th of Dec 2017 at 05:39 pm
On a number of previous occasions I have posted about how I count consecutive day patterns using end of day RSI-2 daily values for the RUT, and other major indexes.I happen to prefer the RUT. These RSI-2 patterns can be simply up, down, up, down type moves that I count as a 2 day pattern in my methodology. Unless there is a significant one day move in RSI-2 values from one extreme reading to another extreme reading, these 2 day up-down moves can be more difficult to enter and exit as a "pattern". But, I find it statistically meaningful that a significant majority of these patterns go from high to low values, or low to high values in 3 and 4 day moves. So far in 2017 (thru 12-26) I count 32 three day patterns, 15 four day patterns, 5 five day patterns, 2 six day patterns, 3 seven day patterns, and 3 eight day patterns. This data tells us that there are a lot of short-term, reversion patterns to trade off of - even when the value in the VIX is quite low by historical standards. 78% of the non "up, down, up, down" moves so far in 2017 have lasted just 3 or 4 days and then reversed. If I add in the 5 day moves, RUT patterns have reversed 86.6% of the time. But, of course, we all "know" no one can accurately "time" the market by successfully getting in and out while going 100% to cash.
The RSI-2 value for the
Posted by sbaxman111 on 22nd of Dec 2017 at 03:32 pm
The RSI-2 value for the SPX has gone up on the first market day after Xmas since 2007 with the exception of 2012 and 2015
Ten Companies driving the S&P Election Rally
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Nov 2017 at 03:52 pm
An especially interesting observations goes to the leadership of the 24% rally since Trump's election, which - while hardly a surprise - was largely driven by a handfull of companies, or ten to be precise.
As SocGen calculates, just 10 contributors of the S&P 500’s bull run have accounted for 33% of the S&P 500 performance. The bank also points out that all of the companies listed below have seen their P/Es expand over the last 12 months, in some cases - like Nvidia, WalMart, Boeing and Amazon - dramatically. In fact, only three companies (Apple and the two banks) have 12-month P/Es that are below the market average (18x). Lastly, keep in mind that except Amazon, all of the companies already pay a corporate tax rate below the current US federal tax rate (35%), and five companies even pay a tax rate that is below the 20% rate targeted by Trump’s tax reform.
Current biggest hedge Funds Long positions
Posted by sbaxman111 on 22nd of Nov 2017 at 12:19 pm
Kimble - IYT Key Area
Posted by sbaxman111 on 21st of Nov 2017 at 02:44 pm
IYT is testing rising support, which could be a support test of a bearish rising wedge pattern. At this time the trend is up, despite the year-long divergence.
What IYT does at (1), could send an important ST message to the key sector. Sometimes in history, how this key sector does, can send an important message to the broad market.
S&P Streaks Update
Posted by sbaxman111 on 21st of Nov 2017 at 01:32 pm
Junk Bonds outflow
Posted by sbaxman111 on 17th of Nov 2017 at 10:57 am
Following this month's drop in junk bond prices and the 40 bps spread widening in high yield last week - the largest since November 2016 - Bank of America has come up with an apt title for its weekly fund flow report: " Nightmare on Bond Street"...... and with good reason: last week, US junk bond funds and ETFs reported a $4.43bn outflow this past week - the third largest outflow on record and the largest since August 2014. This follows a smaller $0.94Bn outflow the prior week. Non-US HY contributed an additional $2.3bn worth of redemptions, bringing the global junk outflow figure to -$6.7bn, also the 3rd largest ever.