Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Nov 2017 at 12:07 pm
The divergence from long-term trends can also be seen in the chart
below which is the deviation of the market from its 6-year
(72-month) moving average. Historically, when the deviation has
been greater than 20% from the mean, corrections and reversions
have occurred.
With the
current deviation 26% above the long-term mean and pushing
2-standard deviations, investors are being
“willfully blind” to
the risks of a short-term correction.
Posted by xxkumarxx on 8th of Nov 2017 at 10:30 am
What about 1994,1997, 1998, 2015 how far above ma where we
during those time. Looking at the chart we could also have a
run away bull like the one from 1994,95 lows to 2001. What do
you think?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Nov 2017 at 12:50 pm
It appears that this Roberts' chart is only pointing out
the previous extreme conditions that were followed by significant
Bear market pullbacks. If you were to follow his site on a daily
basis, he has been consistently warning that the market has a lot
of characteristics of these two previous extremes that led to
significant declines. Perhaps the difference in today's condition
is that Central banks continue to prop up markets any time that
there seems to be a sniff of a potential major
pullback.
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Roberts - SPX Deviation from the long term mean
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Nov 2017 at 12:07 pm
The divergence from long-term trends can also be seen in the chart below which is the deviation of the market from its 6-year (72-month) moving average. Historically, when the deviation has been greater than 20% from the mean, corrections and reversions have occurred. With the current deviation 26% above the long-term mean and pushing 2-standard deviations, investors are being “willfully blind” to the risks of a short-term correction.
What about 1994,1997, 1998, 2015
Posted by xxkumarxx on 8th of Nov 2017 at 10:30 am
What about 1994,1997, 1998, 2015 how far above ma where we during those time. Looking at the chart we could also have a run away bull like the one from 1994,95 lows to 2001. What do you think?
What about 1994,1997, 1998, 2015 how far above ma where ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 8th of Nov 2017 at 12:50 pm
It appears that this Roberts' chart is only pointing out the previous extreme conditions that were followed by significant Bear market pullbacks. If you were to follow his site on a daily basis, he has been consistently warning that the market has a lot of characteristics of these two previous extremes that led to significant declines. Perhaps the difference in today's condition is that Central banks continue to prop up markets any time that there seems to be a sniff of a potential major pullback.