This month, the CAPE ratio in the US is just above 30. That is a
high ratio. Indeed, between 1881 and today, the average CAPE ratio
has stood at just 16.8. Moreover, it has exceeded 30 only twice
during that period: in 1929 and in 1997-2002.
Referring to my compilation
of monthly S&P Composite and related data, I found that
there have been just 13 bear markets in the US since 1871. The peak
months before the bear markets occurred in 1892, 1895, 1902, 1906,
1916, 1929, 1934, 1937, 1946, 1961, 1987, 2000, and 2007. A couple
of notorious stock-market collapses – in 1968-70 and in 1973-74 –
are not on the list, because they were more protracted and
gradual.
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Shiller Cape ratio
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Nov 2017 at 04:03 pm
This month, the CAPE ratio in the US is just above 30. That is a high ratio. Indeed, between 1881 and today, the average CAPE ratio has stood at just 16.8. Moreover, it has exceeded 30 only twice during that period: in 1929 and in 1997-2002.
Referring to my compilation of monthly S&P Composite and related data, I found that there have been just 13 bear markets in the US since 1871. The peak months before the bear markets occurred in 1892, 1895, 1902, 1906, 1916, 1929, 1934, 1937, 1946, 1961, 1987, 2000, and 2007. A couple of notorious stock-market collapses – in 1968-70 and in 1973-74 – are not on the list, because they were more protracted and gradual.