Am I correct in assuming that if GLD just put in a Head and Shoulders top, that the target area measures down to 125.18?

128.72 (right shoulder bottom) - 139.54 (head)= 10.82 points

136 (upward sloping neckline break) - 10.82= 125.18

Just making sure I was reading that correctly.

Thanks

I hope some of you took a second look at this one...I have posted it a few times

I know...did you see the E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures tank on that announcement?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEOP&p=W&b=4&g=0&id=p21982980381&a=215977195&listNum=1

Not sure if anyone else is following this stock, but I am interested in your read here on today's breakout move.

Matt/Steve,

I noticed on the Long Term Tools section on the Renko chart set for weekly that you used a 30pt bar.  On the 1,10 and 30 min you use a 1 pt bar.

Do you have a recommendation on a daily chart?

Thank

Matt, Steve or Rank10,

Can you give us an update on the new SPY system?  Also any update on anticipated release date?

Thank you very much for all your hard work!

I agree.  But atleast Elliott Wave International and Matt/Steve are starting to get on the same page of a potential top in Silver/Gold.  That atleast increases the odds that Prechter MAY get one call right :)

The Elliott wave case for a bond rally (decline in yields) is clear and it is compelling. These charts present the evidence. In Friday's STU, Pete "upgraded" the bond forecast for a rally to "probable," and the forecast remains intact. The [iShares 20+year U.S. T-bond Fund: TLT]has completed a five-wave decline from 109.34 on August 25 to 90.47 on December 15. At last week's low, wave five was equal to wave one and prices tested the lower trendline of the Elliott wave channel formed by the selloff. An extreme 92% of bond traders (trade-futures.com) were bullish the day of the price high, expecting even higher prices, while the same percentage dropped to just 11% the day of the bond low. Sentiment extremes occur at or near market turns and when they occur in conjunction with a complete Elliott wave structure the odds of a trend reversal are very strong. The TLT should rally for weeks to correct the preceding impulsive selloff. As the chart shows, the minimum target range is 97.68 to 99.90, which means 30-year T-bond yields are likely to fall into the 4.04% to 4.18% range, at minimum. Both ranges include the extreme of the previous fourth wave, which should act as a magnet. It would take a new price low beneath 90.47 (yield high above 4.62%) to negate this forecast because it would mean that wave v (circle) was not yet complete.

"Why is it that "negative divergences" aren't triggering, which is rendering
various investing models powerless as the market runs over them?"

For years, analyst and market traders have been carefully watching for divergencesas a clue to when a trend reversal was going to occur.  Many professional investors base their buy/sell strategies on negative and positive divergences.  From a technical perspective,many investors used to anticipate break-downs in market support structures when negative divergences started to appear.

To the dismay of these investors, there have been a plethora of negative divergences during the past month ... but, they have just been sitting there dormant ... as the market continued up. 

We discussed this topic last week, and it is important enough to readdress it today. 

So, what is going on?

The answer is that there is another forcein the market that has been overpowering negative divergences.  In fact, negative divergences have no poweruntil after this force starts to contract.

What is it?

It is the "net amount of inflowing Liquidity" coming into the market every day.   "Net amount of Liquidity" is the amount of Liquidity coming in or leaving the market after all the selling has been absorbed ... or not absorbed.

Since September, the net inflowing Liquidity has been in Expansion territoryand in an up trend.   Inflowing Liquidity is the unseen force in the market that confounds many, and subverts the power of negative divergences as well as many commonly used technical indicators.

It isn't until Liquidity levels pull back in the face of lingering negative divergences, that a market pull back or correction finally occurs.   When inflowing Liquidity is in Expansion territory and at a high rate of expansion, the market continues to move up in spite of any negative divergences. 

Sold at 40.35....thank you very much for the trade Matt and Steve!!!

I have been going through the daily, 60 min, 30 min and 15 min chart for TBT.  I am seeing a little negative divergence but only on the 15 and 30 min on the RSI 14 and MACD.  Does anyone have thoughts on exit points from this trade? 

39.95 intraday...close enough for government work?

For years, analyst and market traders have been carefully watching for negative divergencesas a clue to when a trend reversal was going to occur.

In fact, many professional traders have sold positions and gone short in the past, based on negative divergences.  From a technical analysis viewpoint, they expected that "when negative divergences started appearing, that break-downs in the binding-structure of a rally were also going to start occurring".

But now, many of these same traders are getting hurt because the "negative divergences are not kicking in".   

So what is going on?   Are negative divergences now meaningless and powerless, or is there some other force that will negate the power of a negative divergence?

The answer is yes, there is another force that will override the power of a negative divergence.   As many know, there have been a plethora of negative divergences show up in the past few weeks.   In spite of that, they did not trigger a reversal in the market. 

So why is that ?    It is because the levels and trending of "inflowing Liquidity" overridethe power of any negative divergences.  It is because negative divergences will NOT"trigger" with expandinglevels of inflowing liquidity. 

It isn't until Liquidity levels pull back in the face of lingering negative divergences that a market pull back finally occurs.  When inflowing Liquidity is in Expansion territory and at a high rate of expansion, the market continues to move up in spite of any negative divergences.

Bond Auction Update: 10-Year Note Auction

December 8, 2010

by The TopStock Team

Headline Alert

Bond Auction Update: 10-Year Note Auction

The Treasury auctioned $21 billion in 10-year notes this afternoon.

The auction produced a yield of 3.34% with 8.71% allotted to the high.

The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.92 which was above the 3.12 ratio seen in the average of the last 10 auctions.

Indirect Participation (think foreign governments and big institutions) was 44.38%. The average of the last 10 auctions was 43.88%.

CNBC’s Rick Santelli gave the auction a grade of B-

After consolidation for the past few months, it appears NEOP is on its way to test new highs.  The stock found support around the 1.60 area in NOV and has moved back to the upper portion of the range.

Matt and Steve...keep up the good work.  I have really enjoyed my membership and will gladly pay for the SPY swing system.  The performance should pay for the service many times over.

Just looking at the short-term pattern on TBT...if this is a consolidation then maybe we are in a C wave where C=A at 37.19.

Thank you rank10.

Just curious if your new SPY Swing System is still long?  Also, any update on when that will be released?

Out of Channel..if it is the start of wave 3 then it has to pick up the pace

I believe you can access them through Bloomberg, but you might need a bloomberg terminal to do it