Speaking of...msft goes ex-div 2/15 I believe...extra bonus. The weekly chart shows it breaking above a serious trendline, maybe stalled at a weekly fib for now. 

You are right on, love the quote. And it's so true...position sizing and money management is more important than the indicators I think.  Most new traders don't get that! 

Thanks for the thoughts Matt, well said! 

I don't know the exact statistic but over the longer time frames, I know markets go up like 75% vs down maybe 25%. (just an observation) The downs happen fast and can be exciting and rewarding but much more difficult to time, from my experience.  There are more players on the upside when it comes to large trades like in 401Ks which don't usually give one an option to short. 

My guess is that we finish strong today with all the squeezin that may be going on. Tomorrow may be a different story and may sell the Aapl earnings news; "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of thing.

Take care Matt; maybe it's food poisoning or GI bug? Regardless, those are always the worst. Feel better soon! 

I think the need for update on the systems is a perfect reason to have a separate area of this website dedicated to the systems traders only.  I know I can search Matt or sometimes Steve on the blog and skim through for systems comments but sometimes I miss them as well. It would help very much to have somewhere to look on the website. 

I know there is talk of expansion of the systems to cover more etf's but I think just to have steady reliable commentary on SPY (or leveraged etf) or MES would be  helpful. All this is being said by someone who has been trading within the signals and done well so no complaints but for those who truly want to follow them by the book, it would help on a day like today to see a quick comment on a dedicated space about whether there is a stop or a third signal, etc. 

Are we seeing any SPY system signals to go along with that hanging man? 

I wish I could have your bill! I was recently shocked by my natural gas heating bill at a second home in Virginia. It is Columbia Gas and the bill was $490 for one month! The home has two furnaces but really? We weren't even living there and the heat was set at 70.  (now a lot lower while no one is there)

I think on the contrary, Gas companies are increasing the price of natural gas to make up for losses possibly? If you don't really shop around for a supplier, this type of thing's gonna happen!

Is this ES short trade version 1 or 2 of the Hi Mid Lo? 

If you have access to TOS the charts allow the NYSE Mclellan Oscillator (nymo) and the Nasdaq (namo) to be added to any chart. I use them on the etf indexes. It is very helpful and shows good divergences too. Both are at at very high levels at the moment. Looks a bit different than stockcharts though. 

The Generals are going down (MSFT, AAPL, etc), wonder if this is a sign we are close to a tradeable bottom? 

I am NOT saying we are there yet!!

I was wondering how the big gaps we have seen on opening prices in the last year would affect that aspect of the system.  Looking forward to the final product and I'm sure you will find a way! 

Wow, thanks for the perspective with the charts! 

Which makes me wonder about the smart money knowing data results before other traders! It happened recently on the CPI number. 

Smart move, congrats! I have to wonder if the numbers are predicting something for the next quarter, which is a little further out than a quick swing trade. 

Here are a couple articles I found on the phenomenon. This is  historic and apparently these readings haven't been this high or volatile for at least 5 years. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/12/05/the-putcall-ratio-of-market-sentiment-went-crazy-in-november-what-can-it-mean/?sh=330d8b3a3e2a

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563739-equity-putcall-ratio-in-uncharted-territory

I've yet to hear anyone really know and explain the reasoning for such  high put/call numbers. So far some have suggested: ODTE trading (which has been going on pretty much all year), Arbitrage (not sure, how that works), people trading options is increasing (this would have been much worse during the pandemic imo) and my guess is that maybe traders are spinning off long term options for tax losses and repositioning with puts?

All I know is that the indicator kept me from taking a short position on this last move and was wrong.  I'm not sure if I know how to use the data anymore or if it's helpful due to the wild gyrations. 

Thanks Matt, since we consolidated the gains today in the last couple hours maybe we'll get another push up tomorrow (and with hopeful continuation of Christmas rally). I'm gonna hold here and follow the system. 

Thanks for your advice. Is there a chart link for that or a setting/symbol in stockcharts? 

Any guidance on the systems, Matt? Are they still looking to exit?