I saw a possible rigger the other day via the RSI 14 trendline break on FXY, stop would be at the lows

GDX doesn't trend well enough on the daily to get good stats its been down 1/2 the years it's been trading, does not trend like the index or big cap trending stocks. If I tweak the daily with custom settings it's profitable but a PF just below 2, so blaaa

remember I showed that a 1/2 day or 78 min GDX KISS had really good stats - again per my comments above my guess is that you can capture long enough trending moves on intra day time frames to catch nice trends, whereas daily is just too high of a time frame 

I complied the stats, here's a custom version of the KISS system on a daily chart of AAPL compared to simple buy and hold. average of 4 trades per year. Avg drawdown is -5.5% vs -25.8% for buy and hold.

other stats: for the daily KISS: avg 4 trades per year, avg DD of -5.5%, 66 total trades, 64% winning trades (typical for trend following), avg time in trades is 64 days

per some recent comments about the GDX KISS system stopping out as well as a few of the mining stocks,  and my discussion before - the KISS system in its default settings struggles with GDX and a lot of the PM mining stocks - because that sector is just too choppy and does not trend well over the long term on a daily chart. The KISS was designed initially for the major indexes that go through trending periods.  For GDX, 1/2 of the years it's been in existence are down years, which is opposite of the general market where 80% or more of the years are up years.  I would generally avoid following KISS as an ONLY trigger for an entry and exit on GDX and various gold stocks

again I have some custom settings for GDX that work extremely well on a smaller time frame than the daily, such as a 1/2 day or 78 min 5 bar daily chart, that I shared last week - I may eventually be able to eventually add some of these custom KISS systems on a small basket of ETF's, but that's not ready yet 

also on the KISS systems for other things that work well - the systems are only about 60% profitable and sometimes less. They stop out a lot. They make their money on catching a big move and can then afford to go through a whipsaw small losers and still be profitable.  Also, and not always, many times after the system catches a really big winner, like QQQ daily did from Mar - Aug, or NVDA, META etc, more often than not the next trade ends up being a whipsaw. Again it's not always the case but it happens a lot. If you see that a stock or ETF has closed out of a big winning trade and now it enters again, realize that trade may not work out as well. 

new trades today, here's part of an email I'll be sending out - and see attached table showing the new entries. Looks like we'll be at 10 total entries from various systems, the most I've seen at one time I think is 15 or 13 and it was only for a couple days.  Otherwise the number of entries is getting up there but still below a lot of those really deep sell offs where more sub systems were triggering with higher number. Again as I discussed the other day, you either take them all, or you limit the number of entries by setting a limit such as 8 or 10, whatever fits you. Or if SPY and ES happen to have the same entry on the same sub system on the same day - only do one of the entries not both.  Again I just report what they are doing, they follow and do what fits you

This is an alert about BPT Mechanical Systems:

KISS trend following systems on the indexes have been out and in the safety of cash as you know. 

More mean reversion systems trades today. Kind of a pucker trade as the systems scale in, haven't seen that in a while, but this is typical of the mean reversion systems over the years, at times they scale in and take some heat before the inevitable mean reversion bounce. I simply report what the sub systems are doing, you choose to follow them or not. 

SPY mean reversion systems:
1. QE BTS 2nd will be taking a 2nd entry long. For website I'll show it as $10K of SSO ETF
2. A new sub system is taking a 1st entry: CCI Divergence, I will show as $10K of SPY ETF

ES mean reversion systems:ES does not close until 5 pm so trades are not officially confirmed until that time, that said here's what is likely to trigger
1. 2nd entry QE BTS - I'll show it as 4 MESZ23 contracts
2. 3rd entry Trend/Pullback - I'll show as 3 MESZ23 contracts

my writeup for the weekend

Market Comments: Last spring we made a predication that the market would likely hold up and rally throughout the summer into late July, then experience a correction in Aug/Sep (per seasonality) and that's exactly what has unfolded. 

Currently on the markets as you know we were focused on coil patterns on the indexes and those all broke to the downside last week (did any of you act on those?). The options we were discussing were: 1. either a shallower wave 4 consolidation (least favored), 2. a standard 4th wave zig zag deeper pullback to the low 4300's to mid 4200's (which I have been favoring), or 3. a major top was put into place in late July. Given the fundamental backdrop, the unfathomable amount of debt, Interest rates at 5.5% now, 8% mortgage rates, also the market is not cheap evaluations are very high, and this has been the narrowest rally we've seen in our lifetimes - it's passible that we could have put in a major top in July and not push back to new highs. 

For a 4th wave scenario 'Bulls' need to keep the SPX above the point of recognition gap from early June at 4220), below that price would seriously start the favor that the highs are in and the next major rally will ultimately form a lower high.

With all that said - make sure you have an exit strategy that fits your risk tolerance and trading style. If that's the daily KISS systems, the major indexes (SPY, QQQ etc have been flat as their STS smart trailing stops were all hit). Also the big cap tech names that dominate the market (AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, MSFT, META, TSLA) - the KISS systems are also flat. The weekly SPX KISS has a wide STS stop at 4250 if that's what you are following. The point is, make sure you have some sort of exit strategy and plan in place. 

The market is quite oversold here in the short-term and could bounce from here, but oversold is not a buy signal, so anything can happen. The market ultimately is going to need some sort of catalyst to put in a good bottom, such as the US Dollar and the 10-Year Yield coming in. 

Mean reversion systems: While the KISS Trend Following systems are flat, Two of the sub systems out of 22 systems have 1st and 2nd entries on SPY and ES (Trend/Pullback and QE BTS). That's the natural of these mean reversion systems, they scale into pullbacks and are early at times. Should the market go lower we may see 3rd entries for these and possibly other sub systems start to trigger. 

Key Events for This Week:

1.Tuesday: Various housing data (FHFA housing price index, Case-Shiller home price index, new home sales, consumer confidence
2. Wednesday: Durable Orders/Goods ( POWELL SPEAKS at 4 pm EST the market close!!! )
3. Thursday: GDP 3rd Estimate, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Natural Gas Inventories
4. Friday: Adv Goods, Inventories, Personal Spending, PCE prices, Chicago PMI 

I posted this below but I'm reposting it as I've added the max draw down for KISS and buy and hold. For buy and hold for the max drawdown I added two columns; one that is computed from the Jan open to the low that year (since you are just holding the ETF) and one is form the highs that year to the lows. For the KISS system I am simply using the max drawdown from the trade entry since the KISS doesn't hold all year like buy and hold.

Look over the statistics and you can tell me: would you ever just buy and hold GDX? Notice how about 50% of the years since 2006 are negative years and the average year gain was -5.8% and the total collective gain was 99%. GDX does not trend like the major indexes that are typically positive 8 out of 10 years over the long term

Look at KISS 1/2 day: Instead of almost 50% of the years being negative now you only have 2. Also the average annual gain is 19.1% vs -5.8% for buy and hold LOL. Total summation gain is 325% vs 99.3% so 3 times the gains.

The draw down is of course where it shines. Max draw down was 13% and 11.4%. contrast this with buy and hold where 50% and as high as 72% were not uncommon with an average max DD of -35.8% from the highs and -25.7% from the January open

As I've stated before, GDX does not trend well for long periods of time and is mostly chop not uptrending like the major indexes. The KISS systems are long only and are built for uptrending instruments.  For the daily standard settings KISS  it's the one ETF that is not profitable over the long term on the daily KISS with a profit factor less than 1. Because GDX does not trend well, I decided to try a 1/2 day chart as I thought the system might be able to get enough trend there to be profitable and I was right, just look over the stats.

As I've stated before, GDX does not trend well for long periods of time. For the major indexes the majority of years are up years 8/9 out of 10 years are up years vs down years, for GDX only 1/2 of the years have been up years. For the daily standard settings KISS  it's the one ETF that is not profitable over the long term on the daily KISS with a profit factor less than 1. Again the main reason for this since the KISS is long only, is because GDX does not trend well and is down 50% of the years its been in existence.

that said, I decided to try a smaller time frame a 1/2 day chart because my thoughts were I could enough enough trend on those time frames and now the stats are far far superior to buy and hold. Let's be honest, buy and hold GDX sucks with an average annual gain since 2006 of -6% with almost 1/2 of the years being down years - again contrast that to the market indexes where 8 or 9 out of 10 years are up years. 

anyway the 1/2 day is quite good at avg 18.5% annual gain vs -6% for buy and hold. The sum total for the KISS is 333% vs 109% buy and hold. Roughly 10 trades a year

I have not had time to add the drawdown data

update on the SPY and ES mean reversion systems

here's the table that shows what's open. The yellow areas are what may trigger today:  2nd entry Trend/Pullback for SPY and ES. 1st entry QE BTS for SPY and ES

again that's what these systems do, scale into sell offs and early at times

on SPY Trend/Pullback looking at a possible 2nd entry.  (this sub system can be early at times). 

Also QE BTS is looking to take a possible 1st entry

Like I said - that's how these mean reversion systems work - they scale in and buy when it looks like crap, feels like death, and they can be early. They are methodical about it though and generally make profits in the end because of that - but they are not feel good entries and trades. 

$VIX - Chart Link- after breaking the downtrend line backtested it yesterday found support rebound off

On Friday near the close I said that one of the systems might trigger but I had to leave for an appointment. When I got back at 6:30 pm, I confirmed the trade. The after market was still active however being 6:30 pm on a Friday I figured most of you were checked out and wouldn't see it or take action, so I figured I'd save the trade signal until next week - and maybe we'll see additional weakness anyway to get better prices. 

$SPX - Chart Linkunusually on the these OPEX days price does not trend all day in one direction - you tend to get strong movements down then up or vice versal - so point don't just expect an easy down trend all day

ACHR - Chart Link- long idea from Monday - tested the trendline of the coil on Tuesday then pulled back otherwise nothing wrong with the chart, still monitoring or look for an early long trigger inside the coil 

guys inverse ETF's make no sense for the KISS systems. The KISS systems are designed to be long only.  When the systems are in cash does not mean it's a good short.  uptrends and topping is a process and far different behavior than downtrends/corrections. Uptrends tend to last for months and months, drift higher etc.  Whereas corrections tend to be violent, and over a faster time frame, and the emotion of fear manifests itself differently on selloffs than greed (uptrends).  When developing the KISS systems, for shorts I would have to use completely different logic and rules than I use for the long only. I've commented on this dozens and dozens of times. Most likely the conditions would have to be MUCH tigher for shorts giving them less room (because of the fact that corrections to to be over much more quickly vs going on for long periods of time.

I've commented that the KISS systems is profitable for most indexes and stocks with profit factors of 3, 4, 5, etc. But what isn't the system profitable on?  inverse ETF's!  And this makes sense given that the systems are not designed to manage shorts. Yes the inverse ETF moves up like a long when the market goes down, but it does NOT behave like a long in an uptrend. The inverse ETF's on the KISS systems have profit factors below 1, such as 0.5, 0.3 etc, completely not profitable, and is why I removed them. They should have never been on the list anyway (they came by default with the ETF's

For something like QID - it's like the market, it really needs to hold Thursday's lows, so is an area to consider as a stop (your choice as I'm not an advisor and can't offer advice, just information for you to act on.  As far as the market make sure to listen to my newsletter when I put it out. Also side note the KISS system has it's stop where that higher is, which matches the important area anyway that I just discussed

$SPX - Chart Link- just perfect on that 5 min. formed a divergent high in the afternoon via the MACD, then a lower high bounce (also had a bearish MACD KISS/Stoch OB setup there)

$SPX - Chart Link- got that pullback in the afternoon from the MACD divergence I mentioned earlier

$SPX - Chart Link- this is the 30 min chart discussed yesterday that we favored because of the bullish break in symmetry 

working on that wave c - it's at the bottom of the target range, though I would like to see it work up to that 50% or 61.8% Fib to suck in panic buying before the next decline

$SPX - Chart Link typical trend day so far - also, the clue this morning was the breakaway gap/

Trend day if there is a pullback it's in the afternoon on some divergence

but otherwise that 30 min scenario that we favored is playin gout

yeah I hope not and maybe being the best flea on the dog will help, but  remember my comments from the weekend newsletter

Rant: Long-term  the trend remains up and we will follow and adapt to whatever the market does. That said, what bothers us in the back of our head is the sheer amount of debt being added and it has went parabolic since 2006. Back in 2006 the national debt was 4.8T, it's now over 32 trillion! Just let that sink in....Also, tax revenue is down about 8% and most economic indicators are deteriorating, and if we go into a recession do you think the debt is going to reduce?? Long-term all this is unsustainable and one day there will be a day of reckoning.