$VIX - Chart Link- daily VIX, as you know I've been harping on those pinching Bollinger Bands on the daily since the weekend, playing out finally with a large upside break

$VIX - Chart Link- daily wedge view -I added some symmetry targets to monitor

$VIX - Chart Link- 60 min, yesterday was bullish how it found support on that broken resistance trendline

UVXY - Chart Link- nice!!

UVXY - Chart Link- triggered yesterday breaking out of the channel

$VIX - Chart Link- again I commented yesterday how it gapped above the resistance trendline and then held it on the pullback, classic technical analysis of previous resistance becoming support

got out of Dodge in the nick of time

US futures were trading down overnight then had an acceleration down this morning, and a negative reaction to the economic news.  Currently ES futures are down -37,, they were 44 points at the low.

regardless of any news catalyst we know that the market was vulerable to this pullback with the evidence I've been presenting: the pinching Bollinger Bands, the NYAD divergence, the MACD divergence on the major indexes etc. 

we'll see where things settle after the gap down, if it finds support or ends up being a trend day down. One target would be filling the recent open gap on the cash SPX

ugh it's more complicated than that, first it's the 9 SMA, but also there's as secondary exit of the RVX tagging it's middle Bollinger Band

again these are beta and the current settings probably won't be what I'll be using for the final version - I'm running tests on all of them with some filters I added and trend hold conditions - so it's all going to change slightly anyway

that said - is it looking to exit today? nope not yet

exited on Monday - weird fact about Tradestation, or let's just call it a stupid bug they never patched. The exit didn't show up until 4 pm on Monday - because that's when the normal daily bar would close. Even though the bar closes at 12:30, TS doesn't count the bars as closed until 4 pm during the week - which is dumb as they don't treat those 1/2 days correctly.

anwway - if anyone is still in the Trend/Pullback trade, you could exit there, or place a stop at today's lows

the image shows both versions of the systsem, the one on the left shows the reversion to mean version that exits after price crosses a short term MA, we exited 1/2 our position according to that version and held the other 1/2 to the version on the right which holds for longer period of time.

anyway nice system trade

no it doesn't, you must be looking at STS 11, that means there were 11 STS stops in the trend when it was long/active, it doesn't mean the number of days it's been flat.  You can see from the chart it went flat on June 26th o r27th.

https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=GOOGL&g=mega 

that said - again guys this is where some subjective trading should come into play. On June 26th the the close was 118.34, the stop was shown as 118.4 - we are talking about 6 cents there - to me that's noise. As I've stated I use those STS stops as a guide - if the stop is getting close I'll go look at the chart on the daily and 60 min time frames and make a determination if I want to give it more room or not. For me otherwise $120 stock, to me maybe 50 cents or more would be wiggle room. Also we had the stock a a trade idea wedge, so it's one I may have just stayed long, which I did. Also - the systems can sometimes get stopped out on 4th wave pullbacks, so it's one thing to be cognizant of. 

anyway we'll see what the market does this week after the 4th. If there's going to be a pullback I think it occurs right after the 4th, if not, well the first couple weeks of July are generally one of the most bullish times historically of the year

reversion to mean? SPY trend/pullback is still long but why would any reversion to mean be going long here? nothing would go short, all the reversion to mean systems short bounces after a downtrend, not picking tops in an uptrend - the only short that can trigger in an uptrend is the exhaustion short and let me tell you, the market is no where close to meeting those conditions - only occurs after parabolic moves

KISS long trend systems doing great, I'm sure there's many that are raising stops today and others going long

SIL - Chart Link- price is right near the 9 EMA, we'll see how it closes. Otherwise for now we have a trendline break on the 14 RSI, not yet on the ratio. So far that divergence has produced a bounce the last couple of days, could wave 5 be in? possibly, not confirmed of course

RGLD - Chart Link- also continues to act well

GDX - Chart Link- 

yep - stocks that are uptrending and long on the KISS system - one can look to enter pullbacks where price gets close to the STS, and again zoom down to intra day 60 min charts, 30 min etc, look for 3 wave abc like pullbacks

best to ask on weekend when posts like this won't get buried by intra day market posts

otherwise it really depends on what you are looking to use it for. For things like the indexes, they've been long for a while (except for IWM and DIA), and of course many of the Mega 8 stocks like AAPL, NVDA, META have been long for months, some since Nov - unless you got a good pullback into support, not idea to chase those now

Entry conditions vary as I stated before. There's a rare washout long, there's the ABC pullbacks, and the confirmations over the ATR where price may be a bit extended and best to wait for a pullback. The tables show what goes long new each day and what exits - for new longs it's best to go look at a  chart on your side and see if the entry looks good or if you think it might be best to enter on a pullback

also - in uptrends - 3 wave abc pullbacks are your friend - so if something is already long and uptrending and I want to get in, I look for 3 wave pullbacks, and you might not see it on a daily, so make sure to zoom into an intra day time frame such as a 60 min or 2hr time frame.

and by the way, the % gain on those system trades are calculated as an entry from the next day, NOT the day the system went long, why? because since the tables are updated after the close, you wont' see brand new entries until after the close and most would enter the next day, so that's why we chose that - more of a real world scenario

nice trade on that RMTI for sure!

also I bought yesterday and it pulled back off the highs and closed back below the trendline - but I held the position as the chart and pattern were fine

you gotta give stuff enough wiggle room to work, what I'm saying is that just because it pulled back below the breakpoint yesterday was not  a reason to exit the position

first off remember I kept it open manually - so what would cause it to close is me LOL

that said the original version of the SPY Trend/Pullback that doesn't use the short term MA exit - it would exit once the BPT DS Stochastic gets back over 0.8, currently it's at 0.7, which could be hit on Monday theoretically 

I am considering just closing it out as most are gone on Monday

GDXJ - Chart Link- the ratio turned up today, price regained the 200 day MA. There's RSI 5 divergence and MACD div. Watch the trendlines on the ratio and 14 RSI

GDX - Chart Link-

RGLD - Chart Link-

the SP trend/pullback went long on Monday and is already looking to exit today because price got its simple mean reversion. However the original exit condition for this system was the BPT DS indicator getting over 0.8, and it's only at 0.11. I had added the aggressive mean reversion exit back in early 2020 to help prevent systems like this from getting stuck. 

That said to me the market looks fine. Therefore even though the aggressive version of this system is fully exiting today, I'm going to split the difference and only close 1/2 of it, and then set a a stop at yesterday's close. 

RGLD - Chart Link- an aggressive trade would be to be long some with a stop at yesterday's doji low.

monitor the RGLD/GLD ratio trendline 

you can find some tday trade setups generally on the 1st page, zoom down to 3 and 5 min charts, look for things l like flags, trendlines, coils etc, focus on price action and level 2 as a guide 

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=sh_curvol_o750,sh_price_o1,sh_relvol_o1.5&o=-change 

$SPX - Chart Link- typical OPEX chop and of course after a huge move yesterday consolidation.

generally on OPEX my observation is that the market doesn't trend one direction all day, so the fact that we've pulled back this morning 1/2 the day, maybe the 2nd 1/2 will be up if price breaks through that channel and VWAP

I always say keep it simple, in uptrends when you see 3 wave abc pullbacks, those focusing on buying those, that's all we had all day and lately yesterday, except for the very last part of day

anyway hell of a day all around

arun - trend days, can employ a 10/15 min gap rule to check, also depends on volume and breadth. 

also trend days better when the gap is taking out a resistance area like a downtrend line or other trendline -but we are at new highs so that is not the case, anything goes here