yeah I hope not and maybe being the best flea on the dog will
help, but remember my comments from the weekend
newsletter
Rant: Long-term the trend remains up and we will
follow and adapt to whatever the market does. That said, what
bothers us in the back of our head is the sheer amount of debt
being added and it has went parabolic since 2006. Back in 2006 the
national debt was 4.8T, it's now over 32 trillion! Just let that
sink in....Also, tax revenue is down about 8% and most economic
indicators are deteriorating, and if we go into a recession do you
think the debt is going to reduce?? Long-term all this is
unsustainable and one day there will be a day of reckoning.
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:47 pm
I think the best flea on the dog idea wins in the end. All
Central Banks openly colluding at this point (as they probably
should be) and all Govs are incurring record debt. What's funny is
when people say something like "but why is the dollar strong?"
after looking at a chart. I usually say something like, "is
it really? Can you buy the same amount of stuff with 100 dollars
that you could 2 years ago? Not even close. Charts like UUP
are meaningless for charting actual purchasing power....unless
you're living in a foreign country with a USD bank account (then
the changes are something you tend to track and notice a
lot).
Also, no country with a functioning central bank is going to
allow a competing currency e.g. crypto...unless it's a CBDC.
I find it kind of amusing that so many people think the Gov
will end up conceding to another (internal) currency instead of
taxing every crypto transaction as if it's a capital asset, like
they do now (which makes it completely unusable for transactions,
IMO).
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:02 pm
YC steepening again today. 2's 10's down to about .75 inversion.
I kind of expected the long end to rise and meet the short end and
eventually un invert that way (about the time the recession hits,
historically). Anyway, that's not exactly how it's playing
out....today it is, but the charts both look like they want to go
higher (yields higher, not bond prices)
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:10 pm
10 yr yield spiked to 4.27 this morning before reversing a bit.
Lots of people have been saying a close about 4.25 would get
the markets attention (not in a good way). Getting close
today!
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:14 pm
2 year yield has a bear flag look (15 min). That makes the
2 year an interesting buy. I would say the opposite for the 10
year. Looks like maybe they're heading to meet each other in the
middle. IF that happens, you could actually get some capital
appreciation plus a decent yield buying the 2 year.
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Dang, UUP ain't playin
Posted by timebandit on 15th of Aug 2023 at 02:55 pm
Dang, UUP ain't playin
When this ends I think
Posted by fredsaid on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:25 pm
When this ends I think it's the green back's last hurrah for years, if not decades.
yeah I hope not and
Posted by matt on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:27 pm
yeah I hope not and maybe being the best flea on the dog will help, but remember my comments from the weekend newsletter
Rant: Long-term the trend remains up and we will follow and adapt to whatever the market does. That said, what bothers us in the back of our head is the sheer amount of debt being added and it has went parabolic since 2006. Back in 2006 the national debt was 4.8T, it's now over 32 trillion! Just let that sink in....Also, tax revenue is down about 8% and most economic indicators are deteriorating, and if we go into a recession do you think the debt is going to reduce?? Long-term all this is unsustainable and one day there will be a day of reckoning.
I think the best flea
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:47 pm
I think the best flea on the dog idea wins in the end. All Central Banks openly colluding at this point (as they probably should be) and all Govs are incurring record debt. What's funny is when people say something like "but why is the dollar strong?" after looking at a chart. I usually say something like, "is it really? Can you buy the same amount of stuff with 100 dollars that you could 2 years ago? Not even close. Charts like UUP are meaningless for charting actual purchasing power....unless you're living in a foreign country with a USD bank account (then the changes are something you tend to track and notice a lot).
Also, no country with a functioning central bank is going to allow a competing currency e.g. crypto...unless it's a CBDC. I find it kind of amusing that so many people think the Gov will end up conceding to another (internal) currency instead of taxing every crypto transaction as if it's a capital asset, like they do now (which makes it completely unusable for transactions, IMO).
YC steepening again today. 2's
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:02 pm
YC steepening again today. 2's 10's down to about .75 inversion. I kind of expected the long end to rise and meet the short end and eventually un invert that way (about the time the recession hits, historically). Anyway, that's not exactly how it's playing out....today it is, but the charts both look like they want to go higher (yields higher, not bond prices)
10 yr yield spiked to
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:10 pm
10 yr yield spiked to 4.27 this morning before reversing a bit. Lots of people have been saying a close about 4.25 would get the markets attention (not in a good way). Getting close today!
2 year yield has a
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Aug 2023 at 03:14 pm
2 year yield has a bear flag look (15 min). That makes the 2 year an interesting buy. I would say the opposite for the 10 year. Looks like maybe they're heading to meet each other in the middle. IF that happens, you could actually get some capital appreciation plus a decent yield buying the 2 year.