I posted this below but I'm reposting it as I've added the max
draw down for KISS and buy and hold. For buy and hold for the max
drawdown I added two columns; one that is computed from the Jan
open to the low that year (since you are just holding the ETF) and
one is form the highs that year to the lows. For the KISS system I
am simply using the max drawdown from the trade entry since the
KISS doesn't hold all year like buy and hold.
Look over the statistics and you can tell me: would you ever
just buy and hold GDX? Notice how about 50% of the years since 2006
are negative years and the average year gain was -5.8% and the
total collective gain was 99%. GDX does not trend like the major
indexes that are typically positive 8 out of 10 years over the long
term
Look at KISS 1/2 day: Instead of almost 50% of the years being
negative now you only have 2. Also the average annual gain is 19.1%
vs -5.8% for buy and hold LOL. Total summation gain is 325% vs
99.3% so 3 times the gains.
The draw down is of course where it shines. Max draw down was
13% and 11.4%. contrast this with buy and hold where 50% and as
high as 72% were not uncommon with an average max DD of -35.8% from
the highs and -25.7% from the January open
As I've stated before, GDX does not trend well for long periods
of time and is mostly chop not uptrending like the major indexes.
The KISS systems are long only and are built for uptrending
instruments. For the daily standard settings KISS it's
the one ETF that is not profitable over the long term on the daily
KISS with a profit factor less than 1. Because GDX does not trend
well, I decided to try a 1/2 day chart as I thought the system
might be able to get enough trend there to be profitable and I was
right, just look over the stats.
Posted by skwan1940 on 25th of Sep 2023 at 09:43 am
Thanks very much for this excellent research as always Matt.
To your point about GDX not uptrending well using the Daily
STS- as someone who has traded precious metals for a long time, it
appears there are years when precious metals don't do anything and
then there are years when it roars. Who knows, maybe one day
we can say the same about the SPY when it gets into a long term
sideways range like the stock market did from 1966 to 1982.
I notice that there is a weekly tab for the KISS STS tables-
wonder if the Daily stats would be better when longs are initiated
only when the Weekly STS is long thus confirming a longer term
bull. But you have found sweet spots in the shorter term time
frames like 195min and 78min that work regardless of the bull/bear
trend and I guess that is the point of all this. Would be
fascinating to see if such timeframes work in things like the
cannabis stocks (MSOS or MJ etf) for the past few years which have
had a horrendous bear. Thank you for reading.
And just how long are you going to continue to tease us?!!
Please, the wait is killing me! Seriously, this is totally (yes,
I'm from that generation) amazing!
ha ha - again you guys know my style, I like to show you toys
I'm working on well before I am able to roll them out. Maybe I
should only wait until I have things ready but I get excited and
like to show you guys cool things I'm finding and developing along
the way.
I can't give any time frames yet and there's logistical issues
about how to get trade signals out in a timely manner that needs to
be resolved as well. My thoughts at the moment as I alluded to last
week is to create a small basket of these custom back tested KISS
charts, not overwhelming maybe 6 and less than 10, have them in one
tab of the KISS tables - and they would need to also have the
ability to update intra day and email out the signals, instead of
how it is now only after the close. But I think this all can be
done, but I can't give a time frame at this time - I'm in
development phase
yes and no. Yes if the instrument already happens to be in a
position you simply used the last one communicated. BUT since on a
78 min chart, there's 5 bars in a day, if the KISS system is flat,
there could also theoretically be a new long entry on any of those
5 bars (4 of them intra day could trigger, and of course the
close
I completed the 78 min GDX KISS, look at these numbers! awesome
annual numbers now, about 28 trades per year. Avg annual gain is
25.5% vs -5.8% buy and hold. Total % gain 431.8% vs 99% buy and
hold since 2007. Except for the odd ball max DD in 2020, others are
very small and 7 fold less than buy and hold
GDX 1/2 day KISS vs buy and hold statistics and discussion
Posted by matt on 23rd of Sep 2023 at 12:05 pm
I posted this below but I'm reposting it as I've added the max draw down for KISS and buy and hold. For buy and hold for the max drawdown I added two columns; one that is computed from the Jan open to the low that year (since you are just holding the ETF) and one is form the highs that year to the lows. For the KISS system I am simply using the max drawdown from the trade entry since the KISS doesn't hold all year like buy and hold.
Look over the statistics and you can tell me: would you ever just buy and hold GDX? Notice how about 50% of the years since 2006 are negative years and the average year gain was -5.8% and the total collective gain was 99%. GDX does not trend like the major indexes that are typically positive 8 out of 10 years over the long term
Look at KISS 1/2 day: Instead of almost 50% of the years being negative now you only have 2. Also the average annual gain is 19.1% vs -5.8% for buy and hold LOL. Total summation gain is 325% vs 99.3% so 3 times the gains.
The draw down is of course where it shines. Max draw down was 13% and 11.4%. contrast this with buy and hold where 50% and as high as 72% were not uncommon with an average max DD of -35.8% from the highs and -25.7% from the January open
As I've stated before, GDX does not trend well for long periods of time and is mostly chop not uptrending like the major indexes. The KISS systems are long only and are built for uptrending instruments. For the daily standard settings KISS it's the one ETF that is not profitable over the long term on the daily KISS with a profit factor less than 1. Because GDX does not trend well, I decided to try a 1/2 day chart as I thought the system might be able to get enough trend there to be profitable and I was right, just look over the stats.
Thanks very much for this
Posted by skwan1940 on 25th of Sep 2023 at 09:43 am
Thanks very much for this excellent research as always Matt. To your point about GDX not uptrending well using the Daily STS- as someone who has traded precious metals for a long time, it appears there are years when precious metals don't do anything and then there are years when it roars. Who knows, maybe one day we can say the same about the SPY when it gets into a long term sideways range like the stock market did from 1966 to 1982. I notice that there is a weekly tab for the KISS STS tables- wonder if the Daily stats would be better when longs are initiated only when the Weekly STS is long thus confirming a longer term bull. But you have found sweet spots in the shorter term time frames like 195min and 78min that work regardless of the bull/bear trend and I guess that is the point of all this. Would be fascinating to see if such timeframes work in things like the cannabis stocks (MSOS or MJ etf) for the past few years which have had a horrendous bear. Thank you for reading.
And just how long are
Posted by kab34 on 24th of Sep 2023 at 11:39 am
And just how long are you going to continue to tease us?!! Please, the wait is killing me! Seriously, this is totally (yes, I'm from that generation) amazing!
ha ha - again you
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2023 at 01:06 pm
ha ha - again you guys know my style, I like to show you toys I'm working on well before I am able to roll them out. Maybe I should only wait until I have things ready but I get excited and like to show you guys cool things I'm finding and developing along the way.
I can't give any time frames yet and there's logistical issues about how to get trade signals out in a timely manner that needs to be resolved as well. My thoughts at the moment as I alluded to last week is to create a small basket of these custom back tested KISS charts, not overwhelming maybe 6 and less than 10, have them in one tab of the KISS tables - and they would need to also have the ability to update intra day and email out the signals, instead of how it is now only after the close. But I think this all can be done, but I can't give a time frame at this time - I'm in development phase
no need to email mid
Posted by jlevinthal on 24th of Sep 2023 at 02:22 pm
no need to email mid day since we will know the stops and have put in our stop loss each time the STS changes
yes and no. Yes if
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2023 at 02:58 pm
yes and no. Yes if the instrument already happens to be in a position you simply used the last one communicated. BUT since on a 78 min chart, there's 5 bars in a day, if the KISS system is flat, there could also theoretically be a new long entry on any of those 5 bars (4 of them intra day could trigger, and of course the close
I‘ll try to be patient.
Posted by kab34 on 24th of Sep 2023 at 01:09 pm
I‘ll try to be patient. It will definitely be worth the wait. Now, back to the Packers game.
Go Pack Go...
Posted by steve on 24th of Sep 2023 at 05:29 pm
Go Pack Go...
I completed the 78 min
Posted by matt on 23rd of Sep 2023 at 05:54 pm
I completed the 78 min GDX KISS, look at these numbers! awesome annual numbers now, about 28 trades per year. Avg annual gain is 25.5% vs -5.8% buy and hold. Total % gain 431.8% vs 99% buy and hold since 2007. Except for the odd ball max DD in 2020, others are very small and 7 fold less than buy and hold
check out these 78 min
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2023 at 10:16 am
check out these 78 min KISS stats on UPRO vs SPY buy and hold
Wow, I love that you're
Posted by timebandit on 24th of Sep 2023 at 02:50 pm
Wow, I love that you're making a great system even better by expanding and extending it. Phenomenal work, man.
WHEN WILL YOU ROLL THIS
Posted by johnpaw1 on 24th of Sep 2023 at 12:30 pm
WHEN WILL YOU ROLL THIS OUT