Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Jun 2009 at 03:54 am
Matt, You made good comments in your tonight's market update.
You rightly stated that many traded without a firm plan and were
lost when the market moved against them. There are many possible
ways to trade this choppy market as a short-term swing trade
(920-30 entry to whatever higher low we may get). I reckon it would
be prudent for many on this site -- including myself -- to have a
sample clearly defined strategy-plan of how to do it. I suggest you
could describe what you did and would do in enough detail to make
it instructive. You and Steve a providing us with tid-bits of
knowledge on indicators and strategies . I reckon, you could also
describe how it all fits together in one trade or a number of
sub-trades for the current move down to a higher low. Thanks in
advance!
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 08:22 am
Matt (and Steve) to add to this earlier post...can you please
let us know near the end of each trading
BEFOREit ends what
your thoughts are on the overall market and what moves you may be
taking? Examples...Matt you mentioned you bought GDX the night
before it broke out in anticipation of that break out. When you
covered GDX you did not say to buy in advance of the move and said
wait to see if it can break out, etc. I waited to see the break out
and thus got in a little late, although the trade worked out. Also
you mentioned in your posts yesterday, that the "market was
rallying as you expected." I for one was short yesterday heading
into the day, as were many others, because I thought the SPX
would re-test the 875 - 885 area before a weak pop up to 900 - 905
area and not break above the channel, needless to say I was dead
wrong and got somewhat burned. Although I did exit a lot of shorts
when the SPX held above the channel. I know you and Steve do not
have a crystal ball and I am NOT requesting to be baby sat or to
have every move spoon fed to members. I understand we all have our
own objectives and risk tolerances as well. I am a good trader and
ususally do well with my own decisions. With that said, you and
Steve certainly are ahead of my skills and almost all the members
on the website and I think it would be very helpful if you could
update the blog at around 3:30pm with a quick sentence or two about
where you guys are positioning yourselves for the next trading day.
That would help the membership a lot in my opinion because often
times the most important moves happen overnight with the gaps. Your
advice and services on this website are terrific and I never
miss an evening update, but often find myself not knowing what to
expect the next trading day with all of the possible, and yes valid
scenarios supplied on the evening updates. The update on
Wednesday night stated the market could have a weak bounce in the
short term, but overall sellers were in control and the clear trend
was down until buyers regained control. I positioned myself short
EOD Wednesday (the wrong move) and would not have done so if I knew
you guys were thinking we would get a strong pop. Not being
critical at all here, it's just that I value your opinions a
lot and think getting some timely quick thoughts before the close,
so membership can position themselves for the next day before it is
too late. Just some thoughts that might help people get better
results...thanks Bill.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Jun 2009 at 10:39 am
There may be legal obstacles for Matt and Steve to disclose
their positions, I think. And doing what they are doing defeats the
purpose. However, taking a couple of trades and studying them
completely would be very instructive.
To answer your question about positioning for the next day, I
believe that keeping Matt's charts from the preceding update -- to
get the geometry of patterns -- and 10, 15, 30 and 60 minute charts
-- to get the indicators -- would be enough for an educated guess.
Learning how to translate the (custom) indicators into trading
decisions is the missing link.
Matt, what do consider of this? Thanks in advance!
yes that's true, we have to be really careful not to give actual
advice on what to do with your positions since we are not
registered investment advisers, we could get sued. We are
allowed to give market information, trade ideas, etc but we can't
legally advise you on what do you; you have to make your own
decision
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 11:03 am
you could just say what you yourself is planning on doing and
not say this is what you suggest we all do, that way you
are not giving advice you are just stating what you are deciding to
do...that would help many.
Bill/Matt/Steve, I can't remember exactly when exactly this
occured, "Matt you mentioned you bought GDX the night before it
broke out in anticipation of that break out. When you covered GDX
you did not say to buy in advance of the move and said wait to see
if it can break out, etc." but there is a very simple way to solve
this: Matt/Steve should not announce after the fact - perhaps a day
later - that they made a trade and how great it worked. Either they
tell us EVERY TIME, IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY ENTER OR EXIT A POSITION
what they did (also stops set up, if any), or NOT AT ALL. I think
telling people after you make a trade is legit and will not be
considered giving investment advice but that's not my call - if
they (Matt/Steve) are worried about this, they should not tell us
anything, but also refrain from telling us about a great trade
later - this may be considered "boasing" and just pisses people off
and invites criticism, and serves no purpose. They could, however,
present some instructional material saying "this is what we saw and
this is what we did and this is why we did it" so people can learn
from that - but this material should show both good and bad calls -
we should see that they make mistakes too.
I talked about the GDX chart for days before it broke out.
I had taken a shot (which was a gamble) and I bought a little after
hrs on Tuesday, it was a gamble. Next time I just wont say
anything, hows that.
However...regarding AEM, I bought it on Wednesday more ON THE
GAP UP because the ratio was broken, even though gold stocks gapped
up.
we present analysis and trade ideas, you guys just have to
define yourself and take a shot or not
Posted by asantana on 26th of Jun 2009 at 12:00 pm
Folks, quite seriously....Matt and Steve can't be held
responsible of telling you when to buy and not buy. As a
trader, you need to look at the set-up and if it fits your trading
plan, find the best way to enter/exit it.
IMHO, when someone posts a trade idea, thats what it is.
Take a look at what they are analyzing and take a moment to analyze
yourself. This is how we learn as traders. If you point
out when someone does not tell you when they took a position or
exited it, you are likely not going to get trade ideas.
Posted by dodgerdog on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:02 am
Bill - In all fairness the market opened up weak on Thursday and
you had ample opportunity to close your short positions before the
reversal occurred. Yesterday's action may have also been
influenced by T +3 (trade plus 3 day settlement) to spruce up
quarterly prices.
We will do our best to post our outlook but we really don't want
to get in the business of attempting to predict "day to day" stock
prices.
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:20 am
I hear ya Steve, and I am not suggesting you guys try and pick
every move, but I would rather position myself long, short or in
cash for the next trading day, based on what you and Matt are
thinking, rather than what I am thinking, just because you are both
better traders than me...I think that is the single hardest thing
to do as a trader is decide what to do at the end of each day.
Posted by dallassteve on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:54 am
Matt and Steve,
I think we are all interested in your thinking towards the end
of the day. Maybe you are reluctant to post what you are
trading as we might interpret that as trading advice. I have
noticed that you post whenever you see clear divergence, etc., and
that is greatly appreciated.
One of my accounts is under 25K, so I cannot day trade.
Same thing for my IRAs. Sometimes I like to take a position
at the end of the day and then I am free to sell it at the
beginning of the next day, or hold on to it. I wonder if
others do the same. Comments, anyone?
Also at the end of the day you must be making many decisions of
your own and may not be able to post. I assume that what I am
paying for is your nightly commentary and I should not expect you
to hold my hand during trading hours. Any help during the day
is just icing on the cake.
That being said, if you had posted that you were buying AEM two
days ago at the close, I would have done the same because I was
following the movement in gold. But my timing is not as good
as yours. After the gap up, I decided not to chase it.
Just one personal example.
Posted by ptbouras on 26th of Jun 2009 at 10:04 am
dallasteve..I am of the same mind...same amt in account. could
use more help. would like too to know when matt or rp or steve are
entering a trade...then the decision is mine on whether to follow
or not. maybe they're not allowed to...don't know.
Sample trading strategy in choppy markets
Thursday June 25th Market Recap FYI - Tonight's discuss is 30 ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Jun 2009 at 03:54 am
Matt, You made good comments in your tonight's market update. You rightly stated that many traded without a firm plan and were lost when the market moved against them. There are many possible ways to trade this choppy market as a short-term swing trade (920-30 entry to whatever higher low we may get). I reckon it would be prudent for many on this site -- including myself -- to have a sample clearly defined strategy-plan of how to do it. I suggest you could describe what you did and would do in enough detail to make it instructive. You and Steve a providing us with tid-bits of knowledge on indicators and strategies . I reckon, you could also describe how it all fits together in one trade or a number of sub-trades for the current move down to a higher low. Thanks in advance!
Matt (and Steve) to add
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 08:22 am
Matt (and Steve) to add to this earlier post...can you please let us know near the end of each trading BEFOREit ends what your thoughts are on the overall market and what moves you may be taking? Examples...Matt you mentioned you bought GDX the night before it broke out in anticipation of that break out. When you covered GDX you did not say to buy in advance of the move and said wait to see if it can break out, etc. I waited to see the break out and thus got in a little late, although the trade worked out. Also you mentioned in your posts yesterday, that the "market was rallying as you expected." I for one was short yesterday heading into the day, as were many others, because I thought the SPX would re-test the 875 - 885 area before a weak pop up to 900 - 905 area and not break above the channel, needless to say I was dead wrong and got somewhat burned. Although I did exit a lot of shorts when the SPX held above the channel. I know you and Steve do not have a crystal ball and I am NOT requesting to be baby sat or to have every move spoon fed to members. I understand we all have our own objectives and risk tolerances as well. I am a good trader and ususally do well with my own decisions. With that said, you and Steve certainly are ahead of my skills and almost all the members on the website and I think it would be very helpful if you could update the blog at around 3:30pm with a quick sentence or two about where you guys are positioning yourselves for the next trading day. That would help the membership a lot in my opinion because often times the most important moves happen overnight with the gaps. Your advice and services on this website are terrific and I never miss an evening update, but often find myself not knowing what to expect the next trading day with all of the possible, and yes valid scenarios supplied on the evening updates. The update on Wednesday night stated the market could have a weak bounce in the short term, but overall sellers were in control and the clear trend was down until buyers regained control. I positioned myself short EOD Wednesday (the wrong move) and would not have done so if I knew you guys were thinking we would get a strong pop. Not being critical at all here, it's just that I value your opinions a lot and think getting some timely quick thoughts before the close, so membership can position themselves for the next day before it is too late. Just some thoughts that might help people get better results...thanks Bill.
There may be legal obstacles
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Jun 2009 at 10:39 am
There may be legal obstacles for Matt and Steve to disclose their positions, I think. And doing what they are doing defeats the purpose. However, taking a couple of trades and studying them completely would be very instructive.
To answer your question about positioning for the next day, I believe that keeping Matt's charts from the preceding update -- to get the geometry of patterns -- and 10, 15, 30 and 60 minute charts -- to get the indicators -- would be enough for an educated guess. Learning how to translate the (custom) indicators into trading decisions is the missing link.
Matt, what do consider of this? Thanks in advance!
yes that's true, we have
Posted by matt on 26th of Jun 2009 at 11:01 am
yes that's true, we have to be really careful not to give actual advice on what to do with your positions since we are not registered investment advisers, we could get sued. We are allowed to give market information, trade ideas, etc but we can't legally advise you on what do you; you have to make your own decision
you could just say what
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 11:03 am
you could just say what you yourself is planning on doing and not say this is what you suggest we all do, that way you are not giving advice you are just stating what you are deciding to do...that would help many.
Bill/Matt/Steve, I can't remember exactly
Posted by pdani on 26th of Jun 2009 at 11:26 am
Bill/Matt/Steve, I can't remember exactly when exactly this occured, "Matt you mentioned you bought GDX the night before it broke out in anticipation of that break out. When you covered GDX you did not say to buy in advance of the move and said wait to see if it can break out, etc." but there is a very simple way to solve this: Matt/Steve should not announce after the fact - perhaps a day later - that they made a trade and how great it worked. Either they tell us EVERY TIME, IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY ENTER OR EXIT A POSITION what they did (also stops set up, if any), or NOT AT ALL. I think telling people after you make a trade is legit and will not be considered giving investment advice but that's not my call - if they (Matt/Steve) are worried about this, they should not tell us anything, but also refrain from telling us about a great trade later - this may be considered "boasing" and just pisses people off and invites criticism, and serves no purpose. They could, however, present some instructional material saying "this is what we saw and this is what we did and this is why we did it" so people can learn from that - but this material should show both good and bad calls - we should see that they make mistakes too.
I talked about the GDX
Posted by matt on 26th of Jun 2009 at 11:36 am
I talked about the GDX chart for days before it broke out. I had taken a shot (which was a gamble) and I bought a little after hrs on Tuesday, it was a gamble. Next time I just wont say anything, hows that.
However...regarding AEM, I bought it on Wednesday more ON THE GAP UP because the ratio was broken, even though gold stocks gapped up.
we present analysis and trade ideas, you guys just have to define yourself and take a shot or not
Folks, quite seriously....Matt and Steve
Posted by asantana on 26th of Jun 2009 at 12:00 pm
Folks, quite seriously....Matt and Steve can't be held responsible of telling you when to buy and not buy. As a trader, you need to look at the set-up and if it fits your trading plan, find the best way to enter/exit it.
IMHO, when someone posts a trade idea, thats what it is. Take a look at what they are analyzing and take a moment to analyze yourself. This is how we learn as traders. If you point out when someone does not tell you when they took a position or exited it, you are likely not going to get trade ideas.
Just my two cents!
i concur.
Posted by huylam on 26th of Jun 2009 at 12:12 pm
i concur.
The statement about the market
Posted by dodgerdog on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:06 am
The statement about the market was rallying as expected referred to the intraday comments after the reversal based upon the fact that we saw no signs the market was going to rollover after reversing to the upside.
The comments on Wednesday night also stated the a "break" of the trendlines shown on the DOW, SPX, and QQQQ would be an initial sign that the market wanted to rally in the very near term. If you are going to be a day trader, then you MUST adjust rapidly to the market versus swing trading where you will allow for more wiggle room.
Yesterday, we saw a 3 box reversal (point and figure charts) which in normal price activity (a normal corrective move). The question now is will there be a strong follow through to the upside or a reversal from this general area. Should the SPX not be able to clear and HOLD above the 935 area, odds favor a move lower.
A move below 8259 on the DOW would once again put that index on a short term SELL signal.
Bill - In all fairness
Posted by dodgerdog on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:02 am
Bill - In all fairness the market opened up weak on Thursday and you had ample opportunity to close your short positions before the reversal occurred. Yesterday's action may have also been influenced by T +3 (trade plus 3 day settlement) to spruce up quarterly prices.
We will do our best to post our outlook but we really don't want to get in the business of attempting to predict "day to day" stock prices.
I hear ya Steve, and
Posted by billrosen on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:20 am
I hear ya Steve, and I am not suggesting you guys try and pick every move, but I would rather position myself long, short or in cash for the next trading day, based on what you and Matt are thinking, rather than what I am thinking, just because you are both better traders than me...I think that is the single hardest thing to do as a trader is decide what to do at the end of each day.
end of day
Posted by dallassteve on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:54 am
Matt and Steve,
I think we are all interested in your thinking towards the end of the day. Maybe you are reluctant to post what you are trading as we might interpret that as trading advice. I have noticed that you post whenever you see clear divergence, etc., and that is greatly appreciated.
One of my accounts is under 25K, so I cannot day trade. Same thing for my IRAs. Sometimes I like to take a position at the end of the day and then I am free to sell it at the beginning of the next day, or hold on to it. I wonder if others do the same. Comments, anyone?
Also at the end of the day you must be making many decisions of your own and may not be able to post. I assume that what I am paying for is your nightly commentary and I should not expect you to hold my hand during trading hours. Any help during the day is just icing on the cake.
That being said, if you had posted that you were buying AEM two days ago at the close, I would have done the same because I was following the movement in gold. But my timing is not as good as yours. After the gap up, I decided not to chase it. Just one personal example.
Thanks!
end of day
Posted by ptbouras on 26th of Jun 2009 at 10:04 am
dallasteve..I am of the same mind...same amt in account. could use more help. would like too to know when matt or rp or steve are entering a trade...then the decision is mine on whether to follow or not. maybe they're not allowed to...don't know.
No problem Bill - keep
Posted by dodgerdog on 26th of Jun 2009 at 09:31 am
No problem Bill - keep up the good work.