here's something you may not know about;  Back in the Great Depression, the US Took the hardest hit across the world. Yes it was a world wide depression but the US was hit the hardest, it was much more mild for the UK, why?

    It's because of Deflation: The US was the number one exporter of goods back then, while the UK was more of an importer like we are now.  Because we were the largest exporter we had all these factories with huge capacity.  Deflation comes in when you now have all these empty factories that cannot ship, and all that excess capacity is hugely inflationary.  

    Basically importers were hurt less than exporters.

    Contrast that with what you have today: Today it's China that has all the factors and all that excess capacity - they will be hit the hardest in a world wide slow down because of all that excess factor capacity, whereas the US is mostly an importer kind of like the UK was back in the 1930's that was not hit as hard as the US during the depression. Basically China should get hit much harder than the US in such an event. and of course I'm even discussing the Chinese housing investment market with all those millions of empty condos

    Agree. But what do you

    Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:19 pm

    Agree. But what do you do if you're already in max stimulus, buy the election at all costs mode and the market doesn't respond? I mean, Gov spending has kept the market levitated despite leading econ indicators being down for a record number of months in a row.  It seems we've backed ourselves into a corner. The big mistake was bailing out everyone when SVB failed - we needed to take the medicine. 

    When SVB failed and everyone

    Posted by mla127 on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:38 pm

    When SVB failed and everyone there got made whole, it basically sent the message to everyone that FDIC insurance  is now unlimited  ... lol ... at least for the politically connected institutions that is ...  

    yes that's the problem, we're

    Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:21 pm

    yes that's the problem, we're all F'd LOL. I'm simply saying if things get really really really bad, it will probably be even worse in China, but still bad here too, it's not like it will be good here LOL

    These macro econ types from

    Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:29 pm

    These macro econ types from a pod I watched this weekend have some good insight about where we're at and where we might be heading (not just about Gold..that's just a clickbait headline).  One insight I thought was particularly interesting is how our current predicament is very familiar to EM market participants...just not so much to us DM types.  Also, they contradicted my thoughts that the Gov can't spend even more. Said that they will very likely start sending out checks again....and the explanation seemed plausible.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcNLaVmfxzE&t=15s

    My chart says US is

    Posted by laouuu on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:26 pm

    My chart says US is going to underperform China for a period of time...

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