this is a good real time example of the cycle indicator - when
price is ping ponging almost perfectly between the support and
resistance cycle indicator, once price finally closes through one
of the cycles instead of reversing off it, in this case closes
strongly through the resistance cycle, that's your signal to go
long
again that behavior is universal with any instrument and time
frame
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these
days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over
the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that
it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of
breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it
was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO).
However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave
5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as
common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to
explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing.
There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear,
the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid
the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current
wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to
count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon
indicator)
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this is a good real
MSTR
Posted by matt on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:47 am
this is a good real time example of the cycle indicator - when price is ping ponging almost perfectly between the support and resistance cycle indicator, once price finally closes through one of the cycles instead of reversing off it, in this case closes strongly through the resistance cycle, that's your signal to go long
again that behavior is universal with any instrument and time frame
I look at cycles and
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO). However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave 5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
Cycles - just spotted a
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing. There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear, the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon indicator)