Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these
days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over
the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that
it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of
breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it
was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO).
However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave
5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as
common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to
explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing.
There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear,
the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid
the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current
wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to
count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon
indicator)
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I look at cycles and
MSTR
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 11:54 am
I look at cycles and the MA ribbon almost exclusively these days. You've taught me most of what I know about them over the years. The only thing I would say about this analysis is that it helps to look for a wave count to determine the probability of breakout when closing above the cycles like this. In this case, it was an obvious wave 3 move and was safe to go long (IMO). However, price often breaks above the cycle indicator in wave 5 moves also and those usually fail (the break above isn't as common in wave 5 as 3, but it does happen often).
Cycles - just spotted a
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Mar 2024 at 12:41 pm
Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing. There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear, the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not). If you want to avoid the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon indicator)