Cycles - just spotted a decent example of what I was trying to explain about wave 5 breakouts above the cycles typically failing. There are two of them in the middle of this chart (1 very clear, the other maybe a wave 5, maybe not).  If you want to avoid the look above and fail, make your best guess about the current wave count and avoid 5 (I avoid looking at price these days to count waves and focus on the color changes in the MA ribbon indicator)