Posted by jonesy85 on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:15 pm
Same, and half of retail..$6 trillion cash on sidelines waiting
to buy. Does it make it a shallower correction until we get
everyone on board before the big sell off? George Roberton a
macro/bond guy I follow thinks SPX goes to 6,000 and 10 year to 6%
this year...thinks the fed has lost control. he has made some
good calls and was one of the few bulls I know early last
year..
Posted by icecoldjones on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:20 pm
That is pretty interesting and not that far-fetched. I'm also
reading that so many people and companies these days are trading
using algos and auto-trading systems that you can't try to fight
them as they'll just out-perform and eat up all your mistakes to
keep the train going in the right direction.
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:26 pm
Most of us haven't traded through a major inflationary cycle
before. We expect weakness because we're accustomed to the
deflation boogeyman. We're facing a different beast this time
around. We're literally crashing up if you look at it from a
standard deviation perspective, but we're used to crashing
down.
I've heard the "sidelines" theory debunked by quite a few
people. Check out George Gammon or EuroDollar university on that
topic. Apparently, most of that is institutional and it's not going
anywhere near equities.
Most investors are all in, according to the stats.
yes and again, the inflationary cycle you support may be what's
happening, but it may also not play out like you expect, or some
other weird variation you never expected. I see a LOT of
similarities to 1999, so does Steve. Under your scenario it will
just go up and up and up, and if ours plays out it will go up but
eventually have one hell of a top and bear market.
who knows who's right, no one can say with utter confidence
their theory is what's going to play out. So at the end of the day
you still have to implement some sort of strategy and rules based.
The strategy can't only be we are in an inflationary cycle, so I'm
staying long no matter what because it will inflate higher - it may
and it may not.
project, monitor, and adjust when necessary, not locked into a
theory
Posted by icecoldjones on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:34 pm
Yeah I think $6T on the sidelines is a little misleading but we
definitely are crashing up and the the govt will continue to print
money to pay all these debt payments. No idea when it ends or if we
go into a catabolic hyperinflation period like Japan did back in
the day.
and again, something like 6T on the sidelines, how does that
provide a trigger for a trade, a position, it's meaningless to your
trading. It's something to be aware of but to me it's just
extraneous information that doesn't affect my trading plan
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 04:00 pm
A lot of it is cash in money market funds that wouldn't be
appropriate in equities. Think about the cash hordes on the balance
sheets of just the Mag 7. That money sits in money market
funds and generates significant cash flow (these days).
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:55 pm
If you're trading plan is to trade the daily and weekly
timeframes, having an idea about the macro overview and potential
catalysts can help you decide when a swing trade has a high
probability of working out. If you're taking a medium term swing
now with a 7% stop loss in place, your risk reward probably isn't
that great. But, if you firmly believed or had inside
information about 6 trillion potentially being deployed, maybe you
loosen your stops and average down. Shorter term traders have
less or no need for a macro overview.
Just follow the trend and turn out the noise - when there is a
shift in structure you will be made aware Take some time to
closely study the daily/weekly charts and how the MA's are aligned
currently.
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Same, and half of retail..$6
There is not a damn thing in hell that will ...
Posted by jonesy85 on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:15 pm
Same, and half of retail..$6 trillion cash on sidelines waiting to buy. Does it make it a shallower correction until we get everyone on board before the big sell off? George Roberton a macro/bond guy I follow thinks SPX goes to 6,000 and 10 year to 6% this year...thinks the fed has lost control. he has made some good calls and was one of the few bulls I know early last year..
That is pretty interesting and
Posted by icecoldjones on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:20 pm
That is pretty interesting and not that far-fetched. I'm also reading that so many people and companies these days are trading using algos and auto-trading systems that you can't try to fight them as they'll just out-perform and eat up all your mistakes to keep the train going in the right direction.
So ride with the big
Posted by mastermind on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:55 pm
So ride with the big boys. Don't try to fight a losing battle.
Most of us haven't traded
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:26 pm
Most of us haven't traded through a major inflationary cycle before. We expect weakness because we're accustomed to the deflation boogeyman. We're facing a different beast this time around. We're literally crashing up if you look at it from a standard deviation perspective, but we're used to crashing down.
I've heard the "sidelines" theory debunked by quite a few people. Check out George Gammon or EuroDollar university on that topic. Apparently, most of that is institutional and it's not going anywhere near equities.
Most investors are all in, according to the stats.
yes and again, the inflationary
Posted by matt on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:57 pm
yes and again, the inflationary cycle you support may be what's happening, but it may also not play out like you expect, or some other weird variation you never expected. I see a LOT of similarities to 1999, so does Steve. Under your scenario it will just go up and up and up, and if ours plays out it will go up but eventually have one hell of a top and bear market.
who knows who's right, no one can say with utter confidence their theory is what's going to play out. So at the end of the day you still have to implement some sort of strategy and rules based. The strategy can't only be we are in an inflationary cycle, so I'm staying long no matter what because it will inflate higher - it may and it may not.
project, monitor, and adjust when necessary, not locked into a theory
Yeah I think $6T on
Posted by icecoldjones on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:34 pm
Yeah I think $6T on the sidelines is a little misleading but we definitely are crashing up and the the govt will continue to print money to pay all these debt payments. No idea when it ends or if we go into a catabolic hyperinflation period like Japan did back in the day.
and again, something like 6T
Posted by matt on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:41 pm
and again, something like 6T on the sidelines, how does that provide a trigger for a trade, a position, it's meaningless to your trading. It's something to be aware of but to me it's just extraneous information that doesn't affect my trading plan
How much of that 6T
Posted by scooter on 16th of Feb 2024 at 03:49 pm
How much of that 6T is sidelined and can never make it to the market. Some in annuities, bonds etc. How is this calculated?
A lot of it is
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 04:00 pm
A lot of it is cash in money market funds that wouldn't be appropriate in equities. Think about the cash hordes on the balance sheets of just the Mag 7. That money sits in money market funds and generates significant cash flow (these days).
If you're trading plan is
Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:55 pm
If you're trading plan is to trade the daily and weekly timeframes, having an idea about the macro overview and potential catalysts can help you decide when a swing trade has a high probability of working out. If you're taking a medium term swing now with a 7% stop loss in place, your risk reward probably isn't that great. But, if you firmly believed or had inside information about 6 trillion potentially being deployed, maybe you loosen your stops and average down. Shorter term traders have less or no need for a macro overview.
Just follow the trend and
Posted by steve on 16th of Feb 2024 at 02:25 pm
Just follow the trend and turn out the noise - when there is a shift in structure you will be made aware Take some time to closely study the daily/weekly charts and how the MA's are aligned currently.