UNG - Inventory bearish ... again ... -49B draw , Forecast
-67B , Previous week -75B ... this thing can`t catch a cold
snap ... but it did caught a KOLD ...
The way the inventory trends, whatever bounce
it gets, will be shorted... but this thing is wild and has
humiliated many traders before and will continue to do so ...
... and bankrupt some ... (Just google my local
hometown boy Brian Hunter and Amaranth fund for
entertainment)
Given this background, we circle back to the question of whether or
not robust gas production is sustainable. It partly depends on oil
and NGL prices. If those fall significantly (NGL prices have fallen
in recent months), gas production will decline. But perhaps more
importantly, wet and associated plays may not offer sufficient
production to satisfy the expanding gas demand in North America. If
that is the case, most dry gas wells will need prices between $2.70
and $3.20 to be profitable. Thus, producers of dry gas likely can't
keep financing new drilling, which means gas prices must rise above
the $3.00 barrier to attain enough production to meet demand.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Feb 2024 at 05:10 pm
I'm living at 5000 ft this winter and the ground is still clear
in Feb (snowboarding is still decent, but that's up a couple
thousand feet). I'll sell puts on UNG again the day we get snow
that actually sticks around.
UNG ... Still watching ...
UNG - Now that the widow maker did it's usual ...
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Feb 2024 at 10:09 am
UNG ... Still watching ... lol...
UNG - This is a
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Feb 2024 at 12:36 pm
UNG - This is a more appropriate "trendline" .... The "Waterfall" pattern ...
UNG ... imploding ....
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Feb 2024 at 03:25 pm
UNG ... imploding ....
UNG ...
Posted by mla127 on 13th of Feb 2024 at 10:09 am
UNG ...
UNG ... The widow maker
Posted by mla127 on 13th of Feb 2024 at 05:07 pm
UNG ... The widow maker is collecting bottom fisher skulls on the mantel ....
UNG ... another day ...
Posted by mla127 on 14th of Feb 2024 at 10:14 am
UNG ... another day ... another down day ... lol ....
UNG - Inventory bearish ...
Posted by mla127 on 15th of Feb 2024 at 11:08 am
UNG - Inventory bearish ... again ... -49B draw , Forecast -67B , Previous week -75B ... this thing can`t catch a cold snap ... but it did caught a KOLD ... The way the inventory trends, whatever bounce it gets, will be shorted... but this thing is wild and has humiliated many traders before and will continue to do so ... ... and bankrupt some ... (Just google my local hometown boy Brian Hunter and Amaranth fund for entertainment)
Surprised supplies are not cutting
Posted by EdZ on 15th of Feb 2024 at 11:26 am
Surprised supplies are not cutting back. I doubt if they are making money at these levels.
Source: EIA Source: EIA
Given this background, we circle back to the question of whether or not robust gas production is sustainable. It partly depends on oil and NGL prices. If those fall significantly (NGL prices have fallen in recent months), gas production will decline. But perhaps more importantly, wet and associated plays may not offer sufficient production to satisfy the expanding gas demand in North America. If that is the case, most dry gas wells will need prices between $2.70 and $3.20 to be profitable. Thus, producers of dry gas likely can't keep financing new drilling, which means gas prices must rise above the $3.00 barrier to attain enough production to meet demand.
eia.gov
U.S. natural gas production reaches a new record despite low prices - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
speaking of natural gas, here's
Posted by matt on 15th of Feb 2024 at 11:44 am
speaking of natural gas, here's the NG futures, on 8 time frames with the MA ribbons and cycles to monitor if you are watching for a washout low
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/epRziFih/
tradingview.com
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I'm living at 5000 ft
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Feb 2024 at 05:10 pm
I'm living at 5000 ft this winter and the ground is still clear in Feb (snowboarding is still decent, but that's up a couple thousand feet). I'll sell puts on UNG again the day we get snow that actually sticks around.
yes, that's why I warned
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2024 at 03:27 pm
yes, that's why I warned this morning to zoom to a 2hr, 60 min chart, it looked like a bear flag on the 60 min chart this morning
here's that big history chart - maybe it goes to test those lows again or that demand zone that goes back 28 years
Im up 41% on KOLD
Posted by morton7 on 12th of Feb 2024 at 03:29 pm
Im up 41% on KOLD so far :-)
Nice play Morton!
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Feb 2024 at 03:30 pm
Nice play Morton!
UNG
Posted by steve on 12th of Feb 2024 at 12:55 pm
best to monitor smaller time
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2024 at 10:10 am
best to monitor smaller time frames for things like wedges, divergences, on a 60 min time frame no divergence yet