Posted by rmoore100 on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:17 pm
Matt mentioned the symmetry break yesterday. Steve, does
your break of structure comment therefore negate the symmetry break
from yesterday, or do we probably still get a retrace down ?
Thanks for your thoughts.
You may still see a lower high but yesterday price moved down
into demand zone and then broke above a previous high creating a
bullish shift in structure which favored the pullback today being
bought.
Yesterday's move down could be a wave C of an expanded flat
or first leg of a triangle (both regarding larger wave 4's)
as long as holding above yesterday's low.
Really appreciate you responding to this ( though it wasn’t my
question). I actually raised a significant amount of cash this
morning ( lot more than what I usually do - and it’s totally my own
business). I know one or two days don’t make a market.
The second paragraph seems too technical to understand. Can
you dumb it down a little bit please.
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:07 pm
Wasn't core PCE hotter than expected last time and the market
jumped up like a scalded dog? There have been lots of hotter prints
(maybe it wasn't core PCE, but wage data, etc) and the media
literally runs stories about the prints being proof that inflation
is going down no matter what (I posted proof of this phenomenon
last week). Would be funny if we actually got a consensus or below
consensus print tomorrow and the market sold off. Whatever hurts
the most people on a given day is the direction the market will
take. However, for now, net delta suggests that it is still the
bears that have to be scared away. *I'm pretty sure it was
core that was above consensus last time though...
I'm not saying it's political, but if CNBC and Bloomberg
editors had a political bone in their bodies and it happened to be
bent even slightly to the left (doubtful, I'm sure they are all
very non partisan) there would be a HUGE political benefit to
spinning every data print towards the narrative that inflation has
been conquered.
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Dec 2023 at 02:51 pm
I think the more important readings these days are the
percentage of calls vs puts (yesterday was the 1st day puts
exceeded calls in many weeks) and the net delta exposure for SPX
(or whatever index you are trading). FX Evolution goes over
these charts/figures in most daily videos and, as of yesterday's
video, upside calls are still being sold against the SPX to the
tune of greater than 60% (I think it was 68% on the last read).
The DAX is already back above 80%! As long as so many people
are still trying to be logical and capitalize on fundamental
weakness that they see in the current and future markets, the
market is probably not going to reward them for their
homework...more likely that they will be punished.
PCE tomorrow - personally expect
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 01:12 pm
PCE tomorrow - personally expect a tame reading
Frontrunning - SPX had a
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 03:56 pm
Frontrunning - SPX had a break of structure early today (so was looking for a higher low)
Matt mentioned the symmetry break
Posted by rmoore100 on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:17 pm
Matt mentioned the symmetry break yesterday. Steve, does your break of structure comment therefore negate the symmetry break from yesterday, or do we probably still get a retrace down ? Thanks for your thoughts.
You may still see a
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:22 pm
You may still see a lower high but yesterday price moved down into demand zone and then broke above a previous high creating a bullish shift in structure which favored the pullback today being bought.
Yesterday's move down could be a wave C of an expanded flat or first leg of a triangle (both regarding larger wave 4's) as long as holding above yesterday's low.
Steve Really appreciate you responding to
Posted by arun on 21st of Dec 2023 at 07:13 pm
Steve
Really appreciate you responding to this ( though it wasn’t my question). I actually raised a significant amount of cash this morning ( lot more than what I usually do - and it’s totally my own business). I know one or two days don’t make a market.
The second paragraph seems too technical to understand. Can you dumb it down a little bit please.
Think of it like any
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 09:59 pm
Think of it like any other sentiment gauge...simple as that
Ok, Thanks !!
Posted by rmoore100 on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:24 pm
Ok, Thanks !!
Wasn't core PCE hotter than
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Dec 2023 at 04:07 pm
Wasn't core PCE hotter than expected last time and the market jumped up like a scalded dog? There have been lots of hotter prints (maybe it wasn't core PCE, but wage data, etc) and the media literally runs stories about the prints being proof that inflation is going down no matter what (I posted proof of this phenomenon last week). Would be funny if we actually got a consensus or below consensus print tomorrow and the market sold off. Whatever hurts the most people on a given day is the direction the market will take. However, for now, net delta suggests that it is still the bears that have to be scared away. *I'm pretty sure it was core that was above consensus last time though...
I'm not saying it's political, but if CNBC and Bloomberg editors had a political bone in their bodies and it happened to be bent even slightly to the left (doubtful, I'm sure they are all very non partisan) there would be a HUGE political benefit to spinning every data print towards the narrative that inflation has been conquered.
Steve were you surprised
Posted by rbreese on 21st of Dec 2023 at 02:38 pm
Steve were you surprised by the NAIIM exposure today.? It sure shows tremendous buying.
Not at all with the
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 02:39 pm
Not at all with the current price action
I think the more important
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Dec 2023 at 02:51 pm
I think the more important readings these days are the percentage of calls vs puts (yesterday was the 1st day puts exceeded calls in many weeks) and the net delta exposure for SPX (or whatever index you are trading). FX Evolution goes over these charts/figures in most daily videos and, as of yesterday's video, upside calls are still being sold against the SPX to the tune of greater than 60% (I think it was 68% on the last read). The DAX is already back above 80%! As long as so many people are still trying to be logical and capitalize on fundamental weakness that they see in the current and future markets, the market is probably not going to reward them for their homework...more likely that they will be punished.
Absolutely
Posted by steve on 21st of Dec 2023 at 03:10 pm
Absolutely
Skew crush ended up being
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Dec 2023 at 03:15 pm
Skew crush ended up being the canary in the coal mine the day before yesterday. That's a chart I need to add to my bag o tricks!
*Not a great screenshot, but the skew collapsed on Tuesday. Remember the days when skew was assumed to be on the put side? Not anymore!
I was actually referring to
Posted by rbreese on 21st of Dec 2023 at 02:42 pm
I was actually referring to the absolute number being as high as it was this August .