Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 01:05 pm
SPX - Gentleman's bet on new high? My guess is we at tag
it tomorrow and then maybe squeeze higher. It will make
national news and really get the FOMO juices flowing.
Technically, Santa Clause period starts tomorrow (at least
that's what how I'm told it's defined in the Almanac...I didn't
personally verify).
Digi you have been spot on but FOMO has probably flowed a
lot already. I believe the NAIIM exposure index will give us
a good measure this week. If it is well above 100 my guess. This
summer it hit about 102 percent
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:57 pm
You think? That's hard to imagine even being possible. Maybe if
these people are watching FOX Business News, I suppose. Although my
guess is they are also on Market High Watch like everyone else.
I listened to financial news all day and I think I only
remember one sort of negative take today. It was from Mohamed El
Erian (formerly of PIMCO). He eviscerated the FED communication
last week, but his negativity wasn't directed towards the equity
market, he had a more downer approach about what their missteps
(his words, not mine) will do in terms of inflation.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 02:52 pm
Various measures show that we've transitioned from Greed to
Extreme Greed territory now. It has always ended badly in my
lifetime, but I'm hearing lot of smart people say it's different
this time....so maybe it is. The BofA analyst on Fast Money
yesterday must have said maybe it's different this time at least 5
times...but she's not alone. Price targets and round numbers
are basically magnets. I have a hard time even considering we don't
hit 4800 in this move and then the all time high would be about
1/10th of a percent higher, so it seems we would hit that also.
Markets typically overshoot in both directions (obviously) so maybe
we push all the way up to the high targets at 5200 before getting a
little correction.
Posted by icecoldjones on 19th of Dec 2023 at 04:08 pm
5200 from 4100 in less than 12 weeks sounds asinine! 27% on the
hope that rates "might drop" next year doesn't make sense, none of
the economic stats even say they need to cut rates once. What makes
it different this time, seriously though? Everyone says it but is
there proof or evidence of this or just gut feelings from
everyone?
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 04:14 pm
Mohammed El Erian said this morning that the Fed is letting the
market bully it into submission. Watch the opening
interview of last night's episode of "Last Call" on
CNBC - the guest takes a much more direct approach that I
won't repeat here for fear of retribution (better to stay away from
politics, even if only repeating what someone on CNBC said).
SPX - Gentleman's bet on
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 01:05 pm
SPX - Gentleman's bet on new high? My guess is we at tag it tomorrow and then maybe squeeze higher. It will make national news and really get the FOMO juices flowing. Technically, Santa Clause period starts tomorrow (at least that's what how I'm told it's defined in the Almanac...I didn't personally verify).
Digi you have been spot
Posted by rbreese on 19th of Dec 2023 at 01:57 pm
Digi you have been spot on but FOMO has probably flowed a lot already. I believe the NAIIM exposure index will give us a good measure this week. If it is well above 100 my guess. This summer it hit about 102 percent
There are some people that
Posted by mastermind on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:42 pm
There are some people that only listen to doomsday prophets that probably have no idea the market is almost at new highs.
You think? That's hard to
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:57 pm
You think? That's hard to imagine even being possible. Maybe if these people are watching FOX Business News, I suppose. Although my guess is they are also on Market High Watch like everyone else.
I listened to financial news all day and I think I only remember one sort of negative take today. It was from Mohamed El Erian (formerly of PIMCO). He eviscerated the FED communication last week, but his negativity wasn't directed towards the equity market, he had a more downer approach about what their missteps (his words, not mine) will do in terms of inflation.
Various measures show that we've
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 02:52 pm
Various measures show that we've transitioned from Greed to Extreme Greed territory now. It has always ended badly in my lifetime, but I'm hearing lot of smart people say it's different this time....so maybe it is. The BofA analyst on Fast Money yesterday must have said maybe it's different this time at least 5 times...but she's not alone. Price targets and round numbers are basically magnets. I have a hard time even considering we don't hit 4800 in this move and then the all time high would be about 1/10th of a percent higher, so it seems we would hit that also. Markets typically overshoot in both directions (obviously) so maybe we push all the way up to the high targets at 5200 before getting a little correction.
5200 from 4100 in less
Posted by icecoldjones on 19th of Dec 2023 at 04:08 pm
5200 from 4100 in less than 12 weeks sounds asinine! 27% on the hope that rates "might drop" next year doesn't make sense, none of the economic stats even say they need to cut rates once. What makes it different this time, seriously though? Everyone says it but is there proof or evidence of this or just gut feelings from everyone?
Mohammed El Erian said this
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Dec 2023 at 04:14 pm
Mohammed El Erian said this morning that the Fed is letting the market bully it into submission. Watch the opening interview of last night's episode of "Last Call" on CNBC - the guest takes a much more direct approach that I won't repeat here for fear of retribution (better to stay away from politics, even if only repeating what someone on CNBC said).
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/18/the-feds-pivot-on-rates-is-not-surprising-says-hayman-capitals-kyle-bass.html
It's Different This Time... Feels like
Posted by elementsix on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:34 pm
It's Different This Time...
Feels like we need to push a bit further into "it's different this time" before the big rug-pull. Probably don't have everyone's money quite yet.
Trail up those stops!
yes, agree. With STS in
Posted by kingpin15 on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:38 pm
yes, agree. With STS in place i dont worry anymore.
Thanks for sharing.
Posted by escob149 on 19th of Dec 2023 at 03:31 pm
Thanks for sharing.