Posted by skwan1940 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:34 am
IMO, I would love to see the stats on a basket of assets that
are not highly correlated so the performance of the portfolio would
be good in any market environment. Decades ago Harry Browne
wrote a book on the Permanent Portfolio in which he talked about an
all weather portfolio: stocks, gold, bonds, etc. There is a
mutual fund that mirrors this:
The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
(permanentportfoliofunds.com). People like Ray Dalio have
their own version of it as well. If I were to construct an
all weather portfolio it would be something like this: DBC, USO,
EEM, GLD/GLD, IWM, QQQ, SPY, TLT/AGG, BITO
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:37 am
Sounds great in theory, but excessive diversification leads to
subpar returns over time and sort of flies in the face of using
technical analysis for active management. My experience is
that really well constructed "all weather portfolios" may return 5%
per year. That's great if the 10 year is near 0%, but not so great
if it's at 5% or higher. On the plus side, if you want 5%
through thick and thin, you can get it today, for the next 5 years,
without touching equities or riskier than advertised corporate
bonds.
Posted by skwan1940 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 12:35 pm
Noted. The key to improving on an all weather portfolio is
knowing when to rebalance back to the orig allocations and that is
when technical analysis comes in. So if Matt has a
supercharged system for these uncorrelated assets, the return
should be much improved. I have a version of the permanent
portfolio and have improved the returns over just a simple
thoughtless yearly or quarterly rebalancing. I rebalance when
prices are stretched to the upside or downside based on std
deviation over bollinger bands.
I overall disagree with his comments, kind of negative nancy
there
the performance is 2 to 5X over buy/hold. while the draw down is
6 - 10 fold less. Again there's no guarantee that future
performance will match past results, but if they get close or even
1/2 the performance, they will do extremely well. 5%? come
on, I wouldn't waste my time if I was expecting that
I was going to suggest
High Performance KISS systems
Posted by jonesy85 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:22 am
I was going to suggest the magnificent 7, SPY, QQQ, IWM, GDX, SSO, QLD
IMO, I would love to
Posted by skwan1940 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:34 am
IMO, I would love to see the stats on a basket of assets that are not highly correlated so the performance of the portfolio would be good in any market environment. Decades ago Harry Browne wrote a book on the Permanent Portfolio in which he talked about an all weather portfolio: stocks, gold, bonds, etc. There is a mutual fund that mirrors this: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds (permanentportfoliofunds.com). People like Ray Dalio have their own version of it as well. If I were to construct an all weather portfolio it would be something like this: DBC, USO, EEM, GLD/GLD, IWM, QQQ, SPY, TLT/AGG, BITO
permanentportfoliofunds.com
The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
Sounds great in theory, but
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:37 am
Sounds great in theory, but excessive diversification leads to subpar returns over time and sort of flies in the face of using technical analysis for active management. My experience is that really well constructed "all weather portfolios" may return 5% per year. That's great if the 10 year is near 0%, but not so great if it's at 5% or higher. On the plus side, if you want 5% through thick and thin, you can get it today, for the next 5 years, without touching equities or riskier than advertised corporate bonds.
Noted. The key to improving
Posted by skwan1940 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 12:35 pm
Noted. The key to improving on an all weather portfolio is knowing when to rebalance back to the orig allocations and that is when technical analysis comes in. So if Matt has a supercharged system for these uncorrelated assets, the return should be much improved. I have a version of the permanent portfolio and have improved the returns over just a simple thoughtless yearly or quarterly rebalancing. I rebalance when prices are stretched to the upside or downside based on std deviation over bollinger bands.
I overall disagree with his
Posted by matt on 30th of Oct 2023 at 01:22 pm
I overall disagree with his comments, kind of negative nancy there
the performance is 2 to 5X over buy/hold. while the draw down is 6 - 10 fold less. Again there's no guarantee that future performance will match past results, but if they get close or even 1/2 the performance, they will do extremely well. 5%? come on, I wouldn't waste my time if I was expecting that
Curious Would TLT long term
Posted by jonesy85 on 30th of Oct 2023 at 01:29 pm
Curious Would TLT long term treasury ETF trade well on the super kiss 78 min or better on a weekly?