Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:12 pm
I'm personally not a fan of seasonality when there are very
obvious and somewhat unique levers operating on the economy. There
is no equivalent to the amount of money injected into the economy
since 2021...nothing in American history is even close with the
possible exception of WWII. Then we launched massive spending plans
into the lowest unemployment ever recorded along with high GDP.
So much for counter cyclical spending! Seasonals have
been working surprisingly well this year, but I would argue that
they shouldn't be because it's not a time period that is comparable
to a previous one.
The US dollar was on a tear up until Oct 2 or so....I have been
waiting on this for weeks....topping of something important like
USD canbe a process, not an immediate plummet....do we end DXY with
this steep rising wedge?
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:22 pm
Yeah, screw the multinationals. I'll find true American
companies to invest in and enjoy my increased purchasing power.
And, I think we all know, they'll be just fine no matter
what.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:29 pm
The relationship is typically the other way around. Global funds
seek yield. You have to buy dollars first before buying US debt.
Funds also seek safety, which likely explains the DXY move
today.
Funny about his numbers and
Just in case a significant top is in place - ...
Posted by raymuy on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:05 pm
Funny about his numbers and compared to these
I'm personally not a fan
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:12 pm
I'm personally not a fan of seasonality when there are very obvious and somewhat unique levers operating on the economy. There is no equivalent to the amount of money injected into the economy since 2021...nothing in American history is even close with the possible exception of WWII. Then we launched massive spending plans into the lowest unemployment ever recorded along with high GDP. So much for counter cyclical spending! Seasonals have been working surprisingly well this year, but I would argue that they shouldn't be because it's not a time period that is comparable to a previous one.
The US dollar was on
Posted by steveo on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:18 pm
The US dollar was on a tear up until Oct 2 or so....I have been waiting on this for weeks....topping of something important like USD canbe a process, not an immediate plummet....do we end DXY with this steep rising wedge?
Hopefully the dollar remains strong.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:19 pm
Hopefully the dollar remains strong. It's good for normal Americans.
But hurts as you know
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:20 pm
But hurts as you know multinationals a lot.
Yeah, screw the multinationals. I'll
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:22 pm
Yeah, screw the multinationals. I'll find true American companies to invest in and enjoy my increased purchasing power. And, I think we all know, they'll be just fine no matter what.
One plus with strong USD
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:25 pm
One plus with strong USD it may encourage more interest in US treasuries.
The relationship is typically the
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:29 pm
The relationship is typically the other way around. Global funds seek yield. You have to buy dollars first before buying US debt. Funds also seek safety, which likely explains the DXY move today.
Bowley is bullish after this
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:07 pm
Bowley is bullish after this very weak period thru end of Oct too as is Ryan Detrick.
Detrick is pretty much a
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:12 pm
Detrick is pretty much a perma bull... sometimes he gives you statistics with sample size of 3 lol. Just ridicious for a person with CMT title.
The real experts are here
Posted by steveo on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:16 pm
The real experts are here
was he talking about shorting?
Posted by srusso1 on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:07 pm
was he talking about shorting?
Are you talking about Tom
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:08 pm
Are you talking about Tom Bowley to me?
yes
Posted by srusso1 on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:09 pm
yes
I posted his stats for
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Oct 2023 at 12:11 pm
I posted his stats for the period in question yesterday but will find it again.