I'm personally not a fan of seasonality when there are very obvious and somewhat unique levers operating on the economy. There is no equivalent to the amount of money injected into the economy since 2021...nothing in American history is even close with the possible exception of WWII. Then we launched massive spending plans into the lowest unemployment ever recorded along with high GDP.  So much for counter cyclical spending!  Seasonals have been working surprisingly well this year, but I would argue that they shouldn't be because it's not a time period that is comparable to a previous one.