META and TSLA were good recent examples, I've stated that at
times the STS stops can be slightly hit on 4th wave pullbacks. The
system still had monster trades even if one stopped out at those
STS prices from entry.
As I've stated - be open to some interpretation and use them as
guides - do not be scared to give more wiggle room an STS if your
chart suggest a pullback is only a 4th wave.
On META the STS was only hit by about 60 cents at the closing
candle - to me 60 cents on a 300 stock is basically noise - so
giving a 1 -2 wiggle room to that STS could have been justified,
especially if you thought the pullback was just a 4th wave - again
be open to some things like that if you are a chartist and your
charts suggest something. One could also have used the previous STS
as well to give more room
here's two charts of META - the first one shows the default
settings were the STS was hit by 60 cents. The second one shows
where I simply added more padding to the STS stops, which would
have caused it not to be hit. Again - this is not an exact science
is my point - so be open to some interpretation at times is what
I'm saying. Again, could you just follow the STS stops
exactlly and be fine, sure, but also don't be scared to give more
wiggle room if you see chart justification on your side
they are long only. Otherwise could perhaps be used for some of
the -1X inverse ETF's like SH, maybe SDS, QID. Not the -3X ETF's
that degrade badly and are only meant for short-term
holds.
again the system was designed as long only. Shorting is a
different beast than being long - selloffs tend to fast and sharp
and emotional, whereas topping is a process. Profits on shorts
generally need to be taken much faster as you are generally not
able to ride shorts for months at a time, like you can with longs.
Would really have to be its own different logic set
fyi, as a final line in the sand i also use the rsi 50 - close
below gone. if rsi 50 holds i hold. isrg is trading
below its sts. the rsi 50 also gave way. meta held the
50 rsi so still holding.
Posted by fredsaid on 27th of Jul 2023 at 11:19 am
Then it's not a system. It's you have to be a skilled
trader and first be able to recognize a wave 4 and then have to
have the balls to ignore the system by some arbitrary amount that
you call noise. As far as I'm concerned, the system (in it's
current state) failed. Same is currently true for ISRG which
closed several dollars below it's STS and is now back above
it.
I think it's good if you can improve the systems to account for
more noise (without giving up too much more loss) but perhaps the
other factor here is when it comes to earnings - all bets are off,
even for the STS systems.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:05 pm
Fred - there is no perfect system. And, even if there were
(there isn't), if Matt created it, he wouldn't be running this
website and helping us out. He would be a multi billionaire and
accelerating quickly towards becoming a trillionaire. Try this
thought experiment - take 25K and increase it by 1% per trading day
(why not if there is a perfect system and you can lever up?).
Extend the gains out for a years worth of trading days, then
do 2 years worth (compounding the gains along the way) . The
numbers will shock you. To me, that was proof that my original
goals in trading were too aggressive (my goals at 1st were never
taking a loss and making a measly 1% per day).
I have a 38% gain since April, using primarily BPT trade ideas.
Some of my worst trades have been trading against the SPY on
my own, or taking a BPT trade signal and then not exiting per the
system, because I "knew better". So the is 38% using
BPT trade ideas, less my stupid trades usually short the SPY.
Compiling the trading journal last week made these
truths self evident....enough so that I almost doubled the amount I
was willing to put at risk on any given day.
EDUCATIONAL POST: STS stops - again they are a guide, be open to some subjectivity
Posted by matt on 27th of Jul 2023 at 10:56 am
META and TSLA were good recent examples, I've stated that at times the STS stops can be slightly hit on 4th wave pullbacks. The system still had monster trades even if one stopped out at those STS prices from entry.
As I've stated - be open to some interpretation and use them as guides - do not be scared to give more wiggle room an STS if your chart suggest a pullback is only a 4th wave.
On META the STS was only hit by about 60 cents at the closing candle - to me 60 cents on a 300 stock is basically noise - so giving a 1 -2 wiggle room to that STS could have been justified, especially if you thought the pullback was just a 4th wave - again be open to some things like that if you are a chartist and your charts suggest something. One could also have used the previous STS as well to give more room
here's two charts of META - the first one shows the default settings were the STS was hit by 60 cents. The second one shows where I simply added more padding to the STS stops, which would have caused it not to be hit. Again - this is not an exact science is my point - so be open to some interpretation at times is what I'm saying. Again, could you just follow the STS stops exactlly and be fine, sure, but also don't be scared to give more wiggle room if you see chart justification on your side
Will the STS systems be
Posted by bp17 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 06:36 pm
Will the STS systems be utilized for shorts as well? e.g. market pullbacks
they are long only. Otherwise
Posted by matt on 27th of Jul 2023 at 06:49 pm
they are long only. Otherwise could perhaps be used for some of the -1X inverse ETF's like SH, maybe SDS, QID. Not the -3X ETF's that degrade badly and are only meant for short-term holds.
again the system was designed as long only. Shorting is a different beast than being long - selloffs tend to fast and sharp and emotional, whereas topping is a process. Profits on shorts generally need to be taken much faster as you are generally not able to ride shorts for months at a time, like you can with longs. Would really have to be its own different logic set
Hoping we see some Spy
Posted by focus175 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 09:40 pm
Hoping we see some Spy system trades if this pulls back more!
fyi, as a final line
Posted by morton7 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:05 pm
fyi, as a final line in the sand i also use the rsi 50 - close below gone. if rsi 50 holds i hold. isrg is trading below its sts. the rsi 50 also gave way. meta held the 50 rsi so still holding.
Interesting.
Posted by fredsaid on 27th of Jul 2023 at 01:07 pm
Interesting.
Then it's not a system.
Posted by fredsaid on 27th of Jul 2023 at 11:19 am
Then it's not a system. It's you have to be a skilled trader and first be able to recognize a wave 4 and then have to have the balls to ignore the system by some arbitrary amount that you call noise. As far as I'm concerned, the system (in it's current state) failed. Same is currently true for ISRG which closed several dollars below it's STS and is now back above it.
I think it's good if you can improve the systems to account for more noise (without giving up too much more loss) but perhaps the other factor here is when it comes to earnings - all bets are off, even for the STS systems.
Fred - there is no
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:05 pm
Fred - there is no perfect system. And, even if there were (there isn't), if Matt created it, he wouldn't be running this website and helping us out. He would be a multi billionaire and accelerating quickly towards becoming a trillionaire. Try this thought experiment - take 25K and increase it by 1% per trading day (why not if there is a perfect system and you can lever up?). Extend the gains out for a years worth of trading days, then do 2 years worth (compounding the gains along the way) . The numbers will shock you. To me, that was proof that my original goals in trading were too aggressive (my goals at 1st were never taking a loss and making a measly 1% per day).
I have a 38% gain
Posted by steveo on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:13 pm
I have a 38% gain since April, using primarily BPT trade ideas. Some of my worst trades have been trading against the SPY on my own, or taking a BPT trade signal and then not exiting per the system, because I "knew better". So the is 38% using BPT trade ideas, less my stupid trades usually short the SPY. Compiling the trading journal last week made these truths self evident....enough so that I almost doubled the amount I was willing to put at risk on any given day.
have you looked at the
Posted by jonesy85 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:00 pm
have you looked at the 2 day kiss for these stocks would META and TSLA been knocked out?
I’ve paid for my BPT
Posted by jonesy85 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:22 pm
I’ve paid for my BPT membership the next 25 years since the kiss tables became a thing. Thanks!
Is it possible to replicate
Posted by jonesy85 on 27th of Jul 2023 at 12:24 pm
Is it possible to replicate the same kiss daily tables with a weekly table?