I’m not thinking of anyone triggered in particular but you
mentioned an Amazon short and others which triggered last night I
know these are in a beta stage my question is going forward the
ability to receive notifications on these in time enough to take
action. - yes I guess that’s correct on the volatility
systems
I saw the triggered yesterday for those at the close but didn't
post here as I was busy and I'm not trying to communicate those for
you guys to take them, then have to worry about who took them or
not and keep track of them when I'm not set up to do that
I have a future question regarding the systems -there are
already over 20 in place now and you’re working on an additional 12
or more -as we saw was last night there was a signal and it was
missed during enough time to act upon how do you think you’ll be
able to handle all of these going forward?- I used to think less is
more perhaps in this case more is more
which signal was missed? You mean on these volatility
systems? No because I am not actively trying to see them in real
time and do not have my alert system in place to aleart me on those
volatility systems - once I have that and I have also decided that
I plan to use them for the website (which I have not yet decided)
there will be no issue with alerts- I also have the option of
next bar open for these. Again good or bad I enjoy showing
you guys things I'm working on just because I find it cool and I
like to show things - even if they are not ready - but that creates
problems at times because you see something I'm working on in beta
and you see a trade it just did that would have been good and you
feel like you've missed out. I'm simply showing you guys -
hey here's something cool I'm working on - maybe I should not even
show these things
also - AI brought up - guys that's a tool to have help do work
for you - just like using a calculator to crunch large numbers vs
doing it by old school hand/pencil, it saves you time. But it's not
to be used to come up with the creativity and idea for a system.
You need to have the system parameters and rules and then ask it to
help with that.
you should not use AI to come up with the system on it's own.
It's not a replacement for your experiences and what you see on the
charts. If you see a situation like let's use the MACD KISS/Stoch
example where the stochastic gets overbought but the MACD lines
have not crossed - you see a valid short trigger off that - you can
ask AI to code that for you in X or Y language for you. Then
of course it likely will have bugs and you will need to edit it.
What you should not do is expect AI to come with the system ideas
and rules - that's for you to do
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:50 pm
Matt, are you familiar with Auto GPT? If not, you might
want to check it out. I agree with your AI comments, but only
as they apply to ChatGPT freeware edition. Creating full
blown trading systems and testing them is almost a perfect task for
AI.
again DO NOT let AI do the creativity part for you! It's a tool
guys. I don't care what some guy on Youtube may show as an
idealized example.
I've tried it - asked it to come up with some things - the stats
were okay on the surface but when I dived into the past trades
looking at them individually, it was not something you would have
wanted to follow.
and if you feel that strongly that you can just some AI to do
all this - why they hell do you guys need us? we might as well
close up shop and you can just trust the bots
to me it's a great tool it's not a replacement for creativity
and having 25 years looking at charts and all the knowledge and
experience that gives you
it's like some of these hedge funds that go and hire PhD math
and physics student's out of college to create systems - the
problem they run into do that is first off those young adults are
clearly very smart - but they don't have experience trading the
markets, seeing market behavior - that takes years of experience
that you can only gain the hard way. You need to gain that
experience then use your intelligence to create something -just
being smart doesn't mean you can create a trading system on the
market if have not spent 1000's of hrs watching price action to get
the 'feel' - kind of like a wisdom that only comes after years of
life that a 50 year old has over a 20 year old
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:24 pm
One of the biggest current limitations is that large language
model AI is not general intelligence, it's just aware of a lot of
the discourse.
As such
all of its answers are essentially group think, from playing around
with it you mostly get RSI, MACD and moving average cross
strategies. These can be OK but we have a lot more complexity in
our systems, particularly the swing systems for managing
risk.
James, are systems created by AI profitable at all then? Based
on your comments, AI created systems will side with the majority,
and hence will lose in trading: majority loses trading markets.
Correct?
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:37 pm
I've seen profitable ones, but they often have undesirable
features like holding for years at a time.
The tech
is rapidly improving but you have to tell them what you want
specifically, just asking for a generally profitable strategy isn't
going to get you something compelling.
Essentially everything I've built with them has also had errors
so you have to be able to do your own code review.
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:45 pm
I've spent a lot of time playing with this stuff as it's clear
that it's going to change essentially every industry in the next
few years, but if you want to get a good grasp of its limitations
try asking ChatGPT to design a novel experiment to advance a
unified field theory.
What you get back is essentially just experiments that have
already been proposed by scientists in literature. It doesn't know
more than current humans, it's just better at aggregating data.
Posted by fredsaid on 12th of May 2023 at 01:56 pm
Agreed. This is the difference between today's AI and AGI
(Articicial General Intelligence). Once AI learns how to
'think' with new potential data models, given it's power already
demonstrated in aggregating vast amounts of data - look out and I
don't think we are too far away. The other thing worthy of
note is even without AGI, there are sooooo many jobs that AI makes
vastly easier/more powerful/efficient it will have a profound
impact in it's current form. There is a lot of money to be
made providing ChapGPT like, customized and updateable data models
for every industry on earth. A wealth of companies are being
launched to fill this gap.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:48 pm
Yep, ChatGPT is very limited without the ability to link to and
prompt other systems and then iterate based on the data it
receives. Almost gimmicky in the public facing version.
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:51 pm
Even the integrated stuff is bad at the moment, i run a couple
thousand or so queries a day through autogpt using the gpt4 model
and the results are underwhelming at best. I find i have to give it
very short, very specific goals and do a lot of hand holding to
advance projects.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:33 pm
Not if they backtest and optimize the system they create....it
is possible. Have to be willing to iterate after that...just like
in real life. The trick is having an AI that is able to
access live data sets....which is NOT ChatGPT.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:46 am
Glad - if you use the search tool for "system on systems" or
"system for systems" you will probably find 10 posts from me on
this topic . It's a tough problem to create a system that handles
allocation for multiple systems effectively, efficiently and with
strict risk parameters in place...which is why I'm not surprised to
have very few replies on the subject.
Matt, please don't take this as criticism or a cue that I
want less systems. That is definitely not the case. I realize
it's on me to come up with a system for the systems that works for
me and my trading style.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:53 am
Seriously though! I'm considering doing the work, and
paying the fees, to get
Auto GPT (not to be confused with
ChatGPT) up and running so that I can basically have it complete
layered tasks for me (e.g. create a system and then backtest that
system using ____ tool).
Allocation systems probably aren't for everyone, but I might
be a control freak.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:04 pm
Personal. In the not so distant future (actually already being
done....see YouTube), you can link language models out to other
tools and have it complete multi layered tasks....sometimes without
even telling it exactly what tasks need to be completed for a
project (it knows better than we do). For example, right now when
you ask Chat GPT to create a system, it will do that but then give
you caveats about how it needs to be tested, etc, etc.
Better versions, like Auto GPT, can not only create a task list
from a desired end result (e.g. a trading system), but work through
the task list it created because it it able to utilize API's in
order to link to and prompt other systems / websites to complete
reach the desired end state.
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Volatility daily systems
Posted by matt on 12th of May 2023 at 10:59 am
update on these: yesterday the AMZN system went short, use the VXAZN for the volatility signal.
GS still long, AAPL, still short, QQQ still short
again I'm not providing signals to these yet, someone asked what they were doing so there you go
I’m not thinking of anyone
Posted by Glad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:43 pm
I’m not thinking of anyone triggered in particular but you mentioned an Amazon short and others which triggered last night I know these are in a beta stage my question is going forward the ability to receive notifications on these in time enough to take action. - yes I guess that’s correct on the volatility systems
I saw the triggered yesterday
Posted by matt on 12th of May 2023 at 12:50 pm
I saw the triggered yesterday for those at the close but didn't post here as I was busy and I'm not trying to communicate those for you guys to take them, then have to worry about who took them or not and keep track of them when I'm not set up to do that
I completely understand just questioning
Posted by Glad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:53 pm
I completely understand just questioning what your plan is for the future with what is now an increase in signals - all good at my end
I have a future question
Posted by Glad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:41 am
I have a future question regarding the systems -there are already over 20 in place now and you’re working on an additional 12 or more -as we saw was last night there was a signal and it was missed during enough time to act upon how do you think you’ll be able to handle all of these going forward?- I used to think less is more perhaps in this case more is more
Of course this is a good headache
which signal was missed? You
Posted by matt on 12th of May 2023 at 12:39 pm
which signal was missed? You mean on these volatility systems? No because I am not actively trying to see them in real time and do not have my alert system in place to aleart me on those volatility systems - once I have that and I have also decided that I plan to use them for the website (which I have not yet decided) there will be no issue with alerts- I also have the option of next bar open for these. Again good or bad I enjoy showing you guys things I'm working on just because I find it cool and I like to show things - even if they are not ready - but that creates problems at times because you see something I'm working on in beta and you see a trade it just did that would have been good and you feel like you've missed out. I'm simply showing you guys - hey here's something cool I'm working on - maybe I should not even show these things
also - AI brought up - guys that's a tool to have help do work for you - just like using a calculator to crunch large numbers vs doing it by old school hand/pencil, it saves you time. But it's not to be used to come up with the creativity and idea for a system. You need to have the system parameters and rules and then ask it to help with that.
you should not use AI to come up with the system on it's own. It's not a replacement for your experiences and what you see on the charts. If you see a situation like let's use the MACD KISS/Stoch example where the stochastic gets overbought but the MACD lines have not crossed - you see a valid short trigger off that - you can ask AI to code that for you in X or Y language for you. Then of course it likely will have bugs and you will need to edit it. What you should not do is expect AI to come with the system ideas and rules - that's for you to do
Matt, are you familiar with
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:50 pm
Matt, are you familiar with Auto GPT? If not, you might want to check it out. I agree with your AI comments, but only as they apply to ChatGPT freeware edition. Creating full blown trading systems and testing them is almost a perfect task for AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=465RFn6KmiQ
Auto GPT is very very
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:29 pm
Auto GPT is very very buggy.
It's potentially interesting tech, but it is not useful tech at the moment.
again DO NOT let AI
Posted by matt on 12th of May 2023 at 12:57 pm
again DO NOT let AI do the creativity part for you! It's a tool guys. I don't care what some guy on Youtube may show as an idealized example.
I've tried it - asked it to come up with some things - the stats were okay on the surface but when I dived into the past trades looking at them individually, it was not something you would have wanted to follow.
and if you feel that strongly that you can just some AI to do all this - why they hell do you guys need us? we might as well close up shop and you can just trust the bots
to me it's a great tool it's not a replacement for creativity and having 25 years looking at charts and all the knowledge and experience that gives you
it's like some of these hedge funds that go and hire PhD math and physics student's out of college to create systems - the problem they run into do that is first off those young adults are clearly very smart - but they don't have experience trading the markets, seeing market behavior - that takes years of experience that you can only gain the hard way. You need to gain that experience then use your intelligence to create something -just being smart doesn't mean you can create a trading system on the market if have not spent 1000's of hrs watching price action to get the 'feel' - kind of like a wisdom that only comes after years of life that a 50 year old has over a 20 year old
maybe you could name these
Posted by morton7 on 12th of May 2023 at 01:24 pm
maybe you could name these systems MattChat
Yes, morton, or even MattChatBPT
Posted by timebandit on 12th of May 2023 at 01:32 pm
Yes, morton, or even MattChatBPT
Matt, what is a chief
Posted by junkie on 12th of May 2023 at 01:10 pm
Matt, what is a chief weakness of trading algos or systems created by AI?
One of the biggest current
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:24 pm
One of the biggest current limitations is that large language model AI is not general intelligence, it's just aware of a lot of the discourse.
As such all of its answers are essentially group think, from playing around with it you mostly get RSI, MACD and moving average cross strategies. These can be OK but we have a lot more complexity in our systems, particularly the swing systems for managing risk.
James, are systems created by
Posted by junkie on 12th of May 2023 at 01:32 pm
James, are systems created by AI profitable at all then? Based on your comments, AI created systems will side with the majority, and hence will lose in trading: majority loses trading markets. Correct?
I've seen profitable ones, but
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:37 pm
I've seen profitable ones, but they often have undesirable features like holding for years at a time.
The tech is rapidly improving but you have to tell them what you want specifically, just asking for a generally profitable strategy isn't going to get you something compelling.
Essentially everything I've built with them has also had errors so you have to be able to do your own code review.
I've spent a lot of
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:45 pm
I've spent a lot of time playing with this stuff as it's clear that it's going to change essentially every industry in the next few years, but if you want to get a good grasp of its limitations try asking ChatGPT to design a novel experiment to advance a unified field theory.
What you get back is essentially just experiments that have already been proposed by scientists in literature. It doesn't know more than current humans, it's just better at aggregating data.
Agreed. This is the difference
Posted by fredsaid on 12th of May 2023 at 01:56 pm
Agreed. This is the difference between today's AI and AGI (Articicial General Intelligence). Once AI learns how to 'think' with new potential data models, given it's power already demonstrated in aggregating vast amounts of data - look out and I don't think we are too far away. The other thing worthy of note is even without AGI, there are sooooo many jobs that AI makes vastly easier/more powerful/efficient it will have a profound impact in it's current form. There is a lot of money to be made providing ChapGPT like, customized and updateable data models for every industry on earth. A wealth of companies are being launched to fill this gap.
Yep, ChatGPT is very limited
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:48 pm
Yep, ChatGPT is very limited without the ability to link to and prompt other systems and then iterate based on the data it receives. Almost gimmicky in the public facing version.
Even the integrated stuff is
Posted by James_Roe on 12th of May 2023 at 01:51 pm
Even the integrated stuff is bad at the moment, i run a couple thousand or so queries a day through autogpt using the gpt4 model and the results are underwhelming at best. I find i have to give it very short, very specific goals and do a lot of hand holding to advance projects.
James - that's awesome that
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:57 pm
James - that's awesome that you are playing with it at all! I'm jealous. Need to devote some time to coding again before this revolution passes me up.
Not if they backtest and
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:33 pm
Not if they backtest and optimize the system they create....it is possible. Have to be willing to iterate after that...just like in real life. The trick is having an AI that is able to access live data sets....which is NOT ChatGPT.
I'm here mostly for the
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 01:07 pm
I'm here mostly for the camaraderie - AI can't replace that
Ubetcha Digi
Posted by steve on 12th of May 2023 at 01:08 pm
Ubetcha Digi
Glad - if you use
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:46 am
Glad - if you use the search tool for "system on systems" or "system for systems" you will probably find 10 posts from me on this topic . It's a tough problem to create a system that handles allocation for multiple systems effectively, efficiently and with strict risk parameters in place...which is why I'm not surprised to have very few replies on the subject.
Matt, please don't take this as criticism or a cue that I want less systems. That is definitely not the case. I realize it's on me to come up with a system for the systems that works for me and my trading style.
I know the answer Digi-
Posted by Glad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:50 am
I know the answer Digi- let’s ask chat GPT kidding
Seriously though! I'm considering doing
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:53 am
Seriously though! I'm considering doing the work, and paying the fees, to get Auto GPT (not to be confused with ChatGPT) up and running so that I can basically have it complete layered tasks for me (e.g. create a system and then backtest that system using ____ tool).
Allocation systems probably aren't for everyone, but I might be a control freak.
So it’s your own personal
Posted by Glad on 12th of May 2023 at 11:56 am
So it’s your own personal systems that you’re looking to check or validate not the ones from the BPT ?
Personal. In the not so
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of May 2023 at 12:04 pm
Personal. In the not so distant future (actually already being done....see YouTube), you can link language models out to other tools and have it complete multi layered tasks....sometimes without even telling it exactly what tasks need to be completed for a project (it knows better than we do). For example, right now when you ask Chat GPT to create a system, it will do that but then give you caveats about how it needs to be tested, etc, etc. Better versions, like Auto GPT, can not only create a task list from a desired end result (e.g. a trading system), but work through the task list it created because it it able to utilize API's in order to link to and prompt other systems / websites to complete reach the desired end state.