Will be listening to newsletter

    Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:18 pm

    Will be listening to newsletter shortly, thanks i understand its been nutty,  All star charts seems to think bottom was put in in october 2022 just another pundits opinion

    Again - what matters is

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:22 pm

    Again - what matters is YOUR belief and most importantly YOUR PLAN - who cares about opinions.  It's about execution of a plan.  Spend more time on devising a plan that suits your approach and risk tolerance than prognostications.   I have posted levels here yesterday and  in the newsletter as guideposts.  Please take time to review all. 

    The market moves based upon one thing LIQUIDITY - the entire move up since 2009 was fueled by massive expansion of liquidity (especially during Covid which resulted in a such moves in the market AND inflation that is likely to be engrained for an extended period contra to what was supposed to be transitory).   

    Even with FED injecting liquidity

    Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:50 pm

    Even with FED injecting liquidity into the system (this time in a different way), there is another dynamic counteracting that. And that is bond yields/higher interest, which provides a viable alternative to equities. This has to be taken into account.

    exactly regarding those higher yields.

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:07 pm

    exactly regarding those higher yields. A good example I saw was that 1 year ago if one had $10 million, he/she would make about $70K/Year in interest income form Treasuries. Now that same $10M will make $500K a year - that's a massive difference and for many well to do folks or families, or someone who sold a company recently, or inherited money - that kind of return now might be enough for them to live on just the interest and NOT both to put it into the stock market.  Basically it takes supply away from the market that was forced into the market when rates were 0.5% etc. 

    Yes and let's not forget

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:23 pm

    Yes and let's not forget the cost of financing (and living expenses) with higher rates (and inflation) and how that impacts the savings of ORDINARY people - they are having trouble meeting expenses let alone having money to invest.  Do the math on the cost of a mortgage or car loan today (just the increase in interest) not to mention the 10 plus percent inflation (6 percent is a joke if you really check into the true number not as calculated by CPI - hell they don't even include the cost of a home).   I'm not worried about those with $25 million accounts but those in the middle class and lower. 

    Great point Matt. Some of

    Posted by arun on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:09 pm

    Great point Matt. Some of my colleagues have 25M plus accounts and this is exactly what they have been doing. 

    Absolutely and I'm not in

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 08:39 pm

    Absolutely and I'm not in the QE5 camp as the FED typically proclaims when QE is in effect (that may change but not as yet).   They have been transparent in that regard.   There will come a time when they cannot be the answer either. 

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