Will be listening to newsletter shortly, thanks i understand its
been nutty, All star charts seems to think bottom was put in
in october 2022 just another pundits opinion
Again - what matters is YOUR belief and most importantly YOUR
PLAN - who cares about opinions. It's about execution of a
plan. Spend more time on devising a plan that suits your
approach and risk tolerance than prognostications. I have
posted levels here yesterday and in the newsletter as
guideposts. Please take time to review all.
The market moves based upon one thing LIQUIDITY - the entire
move up since 2009 was fueled by massive expansion of liquidity
(especially during Covid which resulted in a such moves in the
market AND inflation that is likely to be engrained for an extended
period contra to what was supposed to be transitory).
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:50 pm
Even with FED injecting liquidity into the system (this time in
a different way), there is another dynamic counteracting that. And
that is bond yields/higher interest, which provides a viable
alternative to equities. This has to be taken into account.
exactly regarding those higher yields. A good example I saw was
that 1 year ago if one had $10 million, he/she would make about
$70K/Year in interest income form Treasuries. Now that same $10M
will make $500K a year - that's a massive difference and for many
well to do folks or families, or someone who sold a company
recently, or inherited money - that kind of return now might be
enough for them to live on just the interest and NOT both to put it
into the stock market. Basically it takes supply away from
the market that was forced into the market when rates were 0.5%
etc.
Yes and let's not forget the cost of financing (and living
expenses) with higher rates (and inflation) and how that impacts
the savings of ORDINARY people - they are having trouble meeting
expenses let alone having money to invest. Do the math on the
cost of a mortgage or car loan today (just the increase in
interest) not to mention the 10 plus percent inflation (6 percent
is a joke if you really check into the true number not as
calculated by CPI - hell they don't even include the cost of a
home). I'm not worried about those with $25 million accounts
but those in the middle class and lower.
Absolutely and I'm not in the QE5 camp as the FED typically
proclaims when QE is in effect (that may change but not as yet).
They have been transparent in that regard. There will
come a time when they cannot be the answer either.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Will be listening to newsletter
SPX Views
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:18 pm
Will be listening to newsletter shortly, thanks i understand its been nutty, All star charts seems to think bottom was put in in october 2022 just another pundits opinion
Again - what matters is
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:22 pm
Again - what matters is YOUR belief and most importantly YOUR PLAN - who cares about opinions. It's about execution of a plan. Spend more time on devising a plan that suits your approach and risk tolerance than prognostications. I have posted levels here yesterday and in the newsletter as guideposts. Please take time to review all.
The market moves based upon one thing LIQUIDITY - the entire move up since 2009 was fueled by massive expansion of liquidity (especially during Covid which resulted in a such moves in the market AND inflation that is likely to be engrained for an extended period contra to what was supposed to be transitory).
Even with FED injecting liquidity
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 07:50 pm
Even with FED injecting liquidity into the system (this time in a different way), there is another dynamic counteracting that. And that is bond yields/higher interest, which provides a viable alternative to equities. This has to be taken into account.
exactly regarding those higher yields.
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:07 pm
exactly regarding those higher yields. A good example I saw was that 1 year ago if one had $10 million, he/she would make about $70K/Year in interest income form Treasuries. Now that same $10M will make $500K a year - that's a massive difference and for many well to do folks or families, or someone who sold a company recently, or inherited money - that kind of return now might be enough for them to live on just the interest and NOT both to put it into the stock market. Basically it takes supply away from the market that was forced into the market when rates were 0.5% etc.
Yes and let's not forget
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:23 pm
Yes and let's not forget the cost of financing (and living expenses) with higher rates (and inflation) and how that impacts the savings of ORDINARY people - they are having trouble meeting expenses let alone having money to invest. Do the math on the cost of a mortgage or car loan today (just the increase in interest) not to mention the 10 plus percent inflation (6 percent is a joke if you really check into the true number not as calculated by CPI - hell they don't even include the cost of a home). I'm not worried about those with $25 million accounts but those in the middle class and lower.
Great point Matt. Some of
Posted by arun on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 09:09 pm
Great point Matt. Some of my colleagues have 25M plus accounts and this is exactly what they have been doing.
Absolutely and I'm not in
Posted by steve on 2nd of Apr 2023 at 08:39 pm
Absolutely and I'm not in the QE5 camp as the FED typically proclaims when QE is in effect (that may change but not as yet). They have been transparent in that regard. There will come a time when they cannot be the answer either.