GDX - Chart Link- remember guys, this area is
an an uptrend - if you are swinging these be careful in reacting to
day to day noise. I played dust as a hedge to my positions so that
I did not lose those positions. What I didn't want to do is sell
positions I worked hard to establish over the last couple months
and sell them because I thought they might pull back for a couple
days - trade your plan
USD usually bottoms in January. This year the seasonality is not
going to work, IMO. That is, no retrace for gold, just a
consolidation, a squeeze, and a move up again.
I'm just trying to share things I've learned and experienced
over the years.
One thing I'm pretty good at is identifying some penitential
intermediate trend reversals - such as XLE back in early late Dec
2021, mining stocks in Nov etc where I think a trend could go on
for a few months or longer
the BIGGEST mistakes I've made over the years is correctly
identifying these major inflection points, establishing positions,
and then selling them or getting scared out of them early on in
that trend, only to lose my positions and miss that whole trend
that I correctly identified.
the problem is when you mix time perspective analysis - if I
think a trending move could last a few months but I then see a 60
min overbought chart and sell those positions a few days into the
trend losing them, that's an example of over reacting to short term
analysis even though you entered the trade based on an intermediate
trend positioning basis.
one thing can help is if there are inverse ETF's that you can
buy to hedge those positions when you think a short term pullback
is starting and you don't want to risk selling/losing those long
term positions
Thanks for this post. You may be aware that I concentrate on
listening to your longer trend identifications whenever you do the
(especially the week-end) newsletter. I profited greatly in 2020
with your gold monthly chart and got on board at 1300 with the move
to 2000. Then your Uranium longer term charts have made CCJ
and URA tickers that keep on giving. The dollar move last year also
with UUP. Early 2022 we had both you and Steve going bearish
on SPY , QQQ etc. So another 6-8 months out meant lovely trades. I
only trade Debit spreads but often look for big winners on weekly
to monthly charts. Often I only have three or four option trades
open for quite some time but that suits my trading profile as my
nerves aren't what they used to be. But I do still prefer the
futures contracts on SPY/ES trades. With New Zealand time I do find
that the SPY/QQQ options do not do as well as the futures which are
much more flexible time wise.
Just a thought, it may be a good idea if you do a short
newsletter from time to time on longer term trends.
thanks Mundy, and one of my ideas is to add a new section to the
website where I can place some of these long term ideas into sort
of like a blog, I wouldn't post there that often but would be a
repository for stocks and sectors that I think have intermediate
trend potential
Trends and Channels: Great Post Matt! You hit an
important topic that has "plagued" me for years: 10 min Trend
is Up, 30 min Trend is Down, 2 Hour Trend is UP, and 1 Day Trend is
Down. Is it an uptrend or downtrend? You imply that you
need to establish your trading plan and style and stick to it.
That would imply that you need to select your "preferred"
timeframe, put the horse blinders on, commit to the plan for that
timeframe. . . but, hedge a bit and keep an eye on the the other
timeframes.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:43 am
Brophy - curious if you would agree that some indicators work
better on some time frames than others for a given instrument
(ticker)? ...and my experience is that it changes over
time. Sometimes the 15 minute system (group of indicators) is
crushing it and then a couple of days later it will be the 3
minute, etc. I think that's why a lot of people stick to
trading 1 - 3 stocks or indexes.
DigiNomad, there are momentum indicators and oscillation based
indicators. For trending moves, momentum based indicators are most
suitable. An example of a momentum based indicator is MACD and MACD
histogram. A good momentum indicator will stay put for the duration
of the trend. Some indicators are faster than others. Momentum
indicators work well on 30-minute charts and longer. For day
trading, momentum indicators are very specialized and based
on volume rather than price or on alignment of multiple time
frames. A bear flag will not work on 5-minute chart if the
30-minute chart is bullish, etc. FWIW.
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Jan 2023 at 12:06 pm
Mining Stocks - Not exactly my line of reasoning but you make
good points. I'm going to look into the last one as I hadn't
thought of that previously.
Maybe easier to think of what I'm trying to say in terms of the
BPT KISS charts. Notice how the 195 minute has been killing
it in the very near past? But it's not always the 195 that
respects the supports, resistances, buy/sell cycles, etc. Sometimes
other time frames make the KISS systems look like a soothsayer
(borrowing Steves' terminology). But if you picked the 195 today
and decided to always trade on it because it nailed it for a
couple of weeks, you would eventually find that another
timeframe is performing better.
DigiNomadSee how complicated it gets? haha Junkie is right of
course. But what anybody needs to do is paper trade their favorite
indicators until they feel good about them and know exactly how
they work. I think the most un-talked-about indicator is the Hull
Moving Average. It does not lag and accurately helps you follow the
trend. I use it in 9 and 20 Ma.
That has not been my experience. If you think that way it
probably will make things even more confusing. I think most things
are fractal. If an indicator works in one timeframe I believe it
will work on any. Unless it is specifically coded differently. (I
have some TOS indicators that are like that) But usually I like the
daily timeframe for the trend, using a 30-minute timeframe with pos
and neg divergence for entry.
Good points, Matt. And T.A. overload can become confusing when
so many timeframes are involved. That's why I prefer a number of
different indicators (many from you at BPT and others) all in
the same timeframe confirming each other. I will watch the 30 min
for pos neg D and then switch to daily for confirmation and to
monitor the trend. These are the only timeframes I use. Of course,
this fits my style of trade and does not speak for anyone else.
Thanks for all your hard work
mining stocks
Posted by matt on 19th of Jan 2023 at 10:46 am
GDX - Chart Link- remember guys, this area is an an uptrend - if you are swinging these be careful in reacting to day to day noise. I played dust as a hedge to my positions so that I did not lose those positions. What I didn't want to do is sell positions I worked hard to establish over the last couple months and sell them because I thought they might pull back for a couple days - trade your plan
EQX - Chart Link-coming out of that base
BTG - Chart Link-
NEM - Chart Link-
AGI - Chart Link- this one has a cup and handle potential on the weekly
USD usually bottoms in January.
Posted by junkie on 19th of Jan 2023 at 10:55 am
USD usually bottoms in January. This year the seasonality is not going to work, IMO. That is, no retrace for gold, just a consolidation, a squeeze, and a move up again.
Great perspective. Thanks Matt.
Posted by Orangeman on 19th of Jan 2023 at 10:49 am
Great perspective. Thanks Matt.
I'm just trying to share
Posted by matt on 19th of Jan 2023 at 10:53 am
I'm just trying to share things I've learned and experienced over the years.
One thing I'm pretty good at is identifying some penitential intermediate trend reversals - such as XLE back in early late Dec 2021, mining stocks in Nov etc where I think a trend could go on for a few months or longer
the BIGGEST mistakes I've made over the years is correctly identifying these major inflection points, establishing positions, and then selling them or getting scared out of them early on in that trend, only to lose my positions and miss that whole trend that I correctly identified.
the problem is when you mix time perspective analysis - if I think a trending move could last a few months but I then see a 60 min overbought chart and sell those positions a few days into the trend losing them, that's an example of over reacting to short term analysis even though you entered the trade based on an intermediate trend positioning basis.
one thing can help is if there are inverse ETF's that you can buy to hedge those positions when you think a short term pullback is starting and you don't want to risk selling/losing those long term positions
Hi Matt, Thanks for this post.
Posted by mundy on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:24 pm
Hi Matt,
Thanks for this post. You may be aware that I concentrate on listening to your longer trend identifications whenever you do the (especially the week-end) newsletter. I profited greatly in 2020 with your gold monthly chart and got on board at 1300 with the move to 2000. Then your Uranium longer term charts have made CCJ and URA tickers that keep on giving. The dollar move last year also with UUP. Early 2022 we had both you and Steve going bearish on SPY , QQQ etc. So another 6-8 months out meant lovely trades. I only trade Debit spreads but often look for big winners on weekly to monthly charts. Often I only have three or four option trades open for quite some time but that suits my trading profile as my nerves aren't what they used to be. But I do still prefer the futures contracts on SPY/ES trades. With New Zealand time I do find that the SPY/QQQ options do not do as well as the futures which are much more flexible time wise.
Just a thought, it may be a good idea if you do a short newsletter from time to time on longer term trends.
thanks Mundy, and one of
Posted by matt on 20th of Jan 2023 at 02:34 pm
thanks Mundy, and one of my ideas is to add a new section to the website where I can place some of these long term ideas into sort of like a blog, I wouldn't post there that often but would be a repository for stocks and sectors that I think have intermediate trend potential
That would be great!
Posted by mundy on 20th of Jan 2023 at 03:40 pm
That would be great!
Trends and Channels: Great Post
Posted by Walt on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:34 am
Trends and Channels: Great Post Matt! You hit an important topic that has "plagued" me for years: 10 min Trend is Up, 30 min Trend is Down, 2 Hour Trend is UP, and 1 Day Trend is Down. Is it an uptrend or downtrend? You imply that you need to establish your trading plan and style and stick to it. That would imply that you need to select your "preferred" timeframe, put the horse blinders on, commit to the plan for that timeframe. . . but, hedge a bit and keep an eye on the the other timeframes.
Choose the main timeframe your
Posted by brophy on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:38 am
Choose the main timeframe your trading, monitor for continuation of the trend and use a shorter one to get in and out...that's it!
Brophy - curious if you
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:43 am
Brophy - curious if you would agree that some indicators work better on some time frames than others for a given instrument (ticker)? ...and my experience is that it changes over time. Sometimes the 15 minute system (group of indicators) is crushing it and then a couple of days later it will be the 3 minute, etc. I think that's why a lot of people stick to trading 1 - 3 stocks or indexes.
DigiNomad, there are momentum indicators
Posted by junkie on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:53 am
DigiNomad, there are momentum indicators and oscillation based indicators. For trending moves, momentum based indicators are most suitable. An example of a momentum based indicator is MACD and MACD histogram. A good momentum indicator will stay put for the duration of the trend. Some indicators are faster than others. Momentum indicators work well on 30-minute charts and longer. For day trading, momentum indicators are very specialized and based on volume rather than price or on alignment of multiple time frames. A bear flag will not work on 5-minute chart if the 30-minute chart is bullish, etc. FWIW.
Mining Stocks - Not exactly
Posted by DigiNomad on 19th of Jan 2023 at 12:06 pm
Mining Stocks - Not exactly my line of reasoning but you make good points. I'm going to look into the last one as I hadn't thought of that previously.
Maybe easier to think of what I'm trying to say in terms of the BPT KISS charts. Notice how the 195 minute has been killing it in the very near past? But it's not always the 195 that respects the supports, resistances, buy/sell cycles, etc. Sometimes other time frames make the KISS systems look like a soothsayer (borrowing Steves' terminology). But if you picked the 195 today and decided to always trade on it because it nailed it for a couple of weeks, you would eventually find that another timeframe is performing better.
DigiNomadSee how complicated it gets?
Posted by brophy on 19th of Jan 2023 at 12:01 pm
DigiNomadSee how complicated it gets? haha Junkie is right of course. But what anybody needs to do is paper trade their favorite indicators until they feel good about them and know exactly how they work. I think the most un-talked-about indicator is the Hull Moving Average. It does not lag and accurately helps you follow the trend. I use it in 9 and 20 Ma.
The trade-off for a momentum
Posted by junkie on 19th of Jan 2023 at 12:08 pm
The trade-off for a momentum indicator is accuracy versus speed. Since accuracy is preferred, a momentum indicator is necessarily slow.
That has not been my
Posted by brophy on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:51 am
That has not been my experience. If you think that way it probably will make things even more confusing. I think most things are fractal. If an indicator works in one timeframe I believe it will work on any. Unless it is specifically coded differently. (I have some TOS indicators that are like that) But usually I like the daily timeframe for the trend, using a 30-minute timeframe with pos and neg divergence for entry.
Good points, Matt. And T.A.
Posted by brophy on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:25 am
Good points, Matt. And T.A. overload can become confusing when so many timeframes are involved. That's why I prefer a number of different indicators (many from you at BPT and others) all in the same timeframe confirming each other. I will watch the 30 min for pos neg D and then switch to daily for confirmation and to monitor the trend. These are the only timeframes I use. Of course, this fits my style of trade and does not speak for anyone else. Thanks for all your hard work
Thank you over reacting
Posted by srusso1 on 19th of Jan 2023 at 11:09 am
Thank you over reacting to short term analysis on not only mining but just stocks in general.