SPY and ES reversion to mean systems update / comments

    Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2022 at 11:15 am

    Update on the open systems: 

    the ES still has the open Short, we took 1/2 off for nice gains, no change here, it will continue to hold
    the bear long has 1st entry on SPY
    Strap has 1st entry on SPY and ES

    regarding the Strap trade: looking into it more, the risk/reward isn't great because those systems entered after a bounce, and are only looking for a close back above the 6 SMA. By the way, the exit condition was being met this morning when ES was up 22 points. So it's not going to catch a big winning trade as it will exit on a normal up day from here.  We already have a long from the bear long, and an open short from the Stoch 60 systems. 

    I'm playing it by ear here, what I don't really want to do is have these take draw down if the market sells down from here. from a chart perspective it's still possible that this bounce is a 4th wave and we'll see another move lower in next week -then probably start a Christmas rally after
    a few options:
    1. just follow the systems and stick with them - if this is a small 4th bounce, then the systems would probably have to take a 2nd entry next week on the 5th wave lower
    2. hold them with a stop - such as low of yesterday or this morning
    3. one could reduce the positions or close them out here for 5 point loss on ES, pennies on SPY. 

    When did the bear long

    Posted by fredsaid on 9th of Dec 2022 at 02:04 pm

    When did the bear long take 1st entry as I don't see it on the SPY Systems chart ?

    on SPY it was 12/7/2022

    Posted by srusso1 on 9th of Dec 2022 at 02:11 pm

    on SPY it was 12/7/2022 $393.16 long


    Thanks.  I don't see it

    Posted by fredsaid on 9th of Dec 2022 at 02:21 pm

    Thanks.  I don't see it on the Systems SPY chart.  The other 2 trades are there.

    I haven't uploaded it yet-

    Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2022 at 03:29 pm

    I haven't uploaded it yet-  you guys are like my wife - 'you haven't taken out the trash yet you said you were going to, I am doing it later today' LOL

    sounds familiar, lol...........   

    Posted by morton7 on 9th of Dec 2022 at 03:30 pm

    sounds familiar, lol...........   

    ha yeah - again emails

    Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2022 at 03:36 pm

    ha yeah - again emails are the official trades - the section on the website is always updated later. Don't wait for trades to show up there - emails and SMS are the timely alerts

    those are updated, nice exit

    Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2022 at 03:51 pm

    those are updated, nice exit earlier. now would love to see a move lower on Monday as well - if those Strap systems take a 2nd entry, or one of my even higher stat versions take an entry I'll send that out 

    Sorry Matt i'm still confused.

    Posted by fredsaid on 9th of Dec 2022 at 04:00 pm

    Sorry Matt i'm still confused.  Is there a bear long entry still open ?

    I just see them Systems

    Posted by srusso1 on 9th of Dec 2022 at 02:25 pm

    I just see them Systems SPY Trades and ES Trades under Systems tab.

    Great heads up Matt.  

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 9th of Dec 2022 at 01:28 pm

    Great heads up Matt.   Appreciate your insights and putting this back in our hands.   Thank you.  

    Thanks for the detailed update.

    Posted by patellee on 9th of Dec 2022 at 12:55 pm

    Thanks for the detailed update.  STS for me means = Stick to System.  :) 

    Thanks Matt. I took off

    Posted by kevindeng0727 on 9th of Dec 2022 at 11:42 am

    Thanks Matt. I took off SPY longs with small profit... Never trusted these conslidations going on for too long. Maybe another leg down will create a $vix signal for santa rally.

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