Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Jun 2022 at 12:34 pm
"Can't time the market" - I hate to say this as a financial
professional myself, but this has to be one of the biggest
fallacies ever perpetrated on the retail market. The idea
that there is some principle that requires MUCH less work for
portfolio managers, FA's, RIA's and it also happens to be the
truth is pretty far fetched. The thing is that market timing
requires A LOT MORE WORK if you want to be successful. It's nearly
impossible to be successful implementing a timing strategy if you
carry 100+ clients with various types of accounts (taxable, pre and
post tax retirement, trusts, etc) that all require different
approaches. The 1st FA I worked under at Merrill had about 500
clients - guess how much he cared about charts...
This is exactly why I left the business after 20+ years. We
timed the markets very well, buying extreme selloffs and selling
the parties. The big issue became over time that I simply couldn't
keep up. I wasn't going to maintain a staff, manage to all the game
playing every year, and now the catastrophes every five minutes in
the world. The 14 hour days are over. I was just thinking of the
covid selloff, oh how about the Christmas Eve off 20% from the
highs in 2018 because of some China scare. Of course the financial
crisis. Tech bubbles anyone. Summer low volume bs volatility
anyone, oh make sure it happens when I'm trying to take some time
off for a week to be with my family. All of course became
opportunities, though now I have to enagage in all the
conversations, dispelling the terrible media stories, and trying to
search for the truth while people are eating social media feeds and
news amidst platforms that were created to addict people to their
propaganda. Prices are the only truth we could ever play by,
improve the risk/reward dramatically, and know that the world had
to move on, or money wouldn't matter anyway.
I wasn't an advisor that could just tell someone to buy and hold
at any price. I did my best and thankfully did very well with my
clients. The truth is though with all the regs and other things I
mentioned, it isn't worth it. The only way I could really do it is
to just manage for a small group of high worth clients. Honestly
though, there is more that comes with that than just being in the
business and making money. Some of those types were not the
greatest people to be around. I value relationships and believe we
eventually do take on the characteristics of who we spend the most
time with. Peace of mind is worth a lot. Having my time back is
worth a lot, priceless really. I sleep well these days.
Well-written and well-stated. Thank you. Buzzy Schwartz tells a
similar story in his classic book "Pitt Bull." The stress and
yes, the insanity of managing other people's money seems to me to
be quite overwhelming.
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Jun 2022 at 12:44 pm
I take that into account and it's why I don't day trade (much)
and primarily use short put spreads in bull markets and short call
spreads in bull markets (actually both at the same time, but in
different ratios depending on conditions). Credit spreads put on
with the short strike at a 16 delta should yield an 80+% win
rate. The trick for achieving that win rate over time, in my
opinion, is not to use it on single stocks and to not lose your
nerve when you experience losses...because it happens to everyone.
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"Can't time the market" -
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Jun 2022 at 12:34 pm
"Can't time the market" - I hate to say this as a financial professional myself, but this has to be one of the biggest fallacies ever perpetrated on the retail market. The idea that there is some principle that requires MUCH less work for portfolio managers, FA's, RIA's and it also happens to be the truth is pretty far fetched. The thing is that market timing requires A LOT MORE WORK if you want to be successful. It's nearly impossible to be successful implementing a timing strategy if you carry 100+ clients with various types of accounts (taxable, pre and post tax retirement, trusts, etc) that all require different approaches. The 1st FA I worked under at Merrill had about 500 clients - guess how much he cared about charts...
This is exactly why I
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 1st of Jul 2022 at 08:14 am
This is exactly why I left the business after 20+ years. We timed the markets very well, buying extreme selloffs and selling the parties. The big issue became over time that I simply couldn't keep up. I wasn't going to maintain a staff, manage to all the game playing every year, and now the catastrophes every five minutes in the world. The 14 hour days are over. I was just thinking of the covid selloff, oh how about the Christmas Eve off 20% from the highs in 2018 because of some China scare. Of course the financial crisis. Tech bubbles anyone. Summer low volume bs volatility anyone, oh make sure it happens when I'm trying to take some time off for a week to be with my family. All of course became opportunities, though now I have to enagage in all the conversations, dispelling the terrible media stories, and trying to search for the truth while people are eating social media feeds and news amidst platforms that were created to addict people to their propaganda. Prices are the only truth we could ever play by, improve the risk/reward dramatically, and know that the world had to move on, or money wouldn't matter anyway.
I wasn't an advisor that could just tell someone to buy and hold at any price. I did my best and thankfully did very well with my clients. The truth is though with all the regs and other things I mentioned, it isn't worth it. The only way I could really do it is to just manage for a small group of high worth clients. Honestly though, there is more that comes with that than just being in the business and making money. Some of those types were not the greatest people to be around. I value relationships and believe we eventually do take on the characteristics of who we spend the most time with. Peace of mind is worth a lot. Having my time back is worth a lot, priceless really. I sleep well these days.
Was thinking yesterday does Matt
Posted by retirefire on 1st of Jul 2022 at 08:54 am
Was thinking yesterday does Matt and Steve take some weeks off? Hope so. R and R not tasks
Well-written and well-stated. Thank you.
Posted by brophy on 1st of Jul 2022 at 08:48 am
Well-written and well-stated. Thank you. Buzzy Schwartz tells a similar story in his classic book "Pitt Bull." The stress and yes, the insanity of managing other people's money seems to me to be quite overwhelming.
Well stated and enjoy the
Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 08:28 am
Well stated and enjoy the time with your family
They are somewhat correct -
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 30th of Jun 2022 at 12:38 pm
They are somewhat correct - noboday can time the market with 100% accuracy, but a 40% win ration + good risk management makes a US investing champion
I take that into account
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Jun 2022 at 12:44 pm
I take that into account and it's why I don't day trade (much) and primarily use short put spreads in bull markets and short call spreads in bull markets (actually both at the same time, but in different ratios depending on conditions). Credit spreads put on with the short strike at a 16 delta should yield an 80+% win rate. The trick for achieving that win rate over time, in my opinion, is not to use it on single stocks and to not lose your nerve when you experience losses...because it happens to everyone.