Posted by timebandit on 10th of Mar 2021 at 03:35 pm
Looks like VOMMA will close above 110, unless something crazy
happens in the last half hour. It's 115.48 right now. Don't know
what to make of this. The market has been building energy while
coiling most of the day. While I typed this it has sold off some,
but nothing extreme. We'll have to see what happens overnight, I
guess. I'm mainly confused, my normal state of affairs.
Posted by fredsaid on 10th of Mar 2021 at 03:46 pm
Ok. Let's see. VOMMA went under and came back up again
(Last 2 times in the last few weeks, this has been a ringer for a
massive sell off mostly in the QQQs and S&P). Tons of
money still flowing into cyclicals (Financials, Materials, Oil and
Energy - witness DOW new highs every day incl now), something has
to pay for all that... Plus looking at Steve's last SnP
chart, wedge could still fail. I'm betting we get another big
dump of the QQQs.
Posted by timebandit on 10th of Mar 2021 at 04:38 pm
Today's candle is pretty ugly for the QQQs. Gapped up and tagged
the 20/50 MAs, which are crossing in the bad way. QQQs ended
the day below the 9, 20, and 50. The SPY candle ain't so hot
either, with a long legged doji marking indecision. Although SPY is
above the 9 and 20 MAs, which are crossing in the good way. Perhaps
SPY is a little extended from the 9 ema and needs to pull back a
bit? We shall see. I went short the QQQs in the early afternoon and
then watched them meander back and forth across my buy in price for
the rest of the day. I'm showing a profit now, but the night
monkeys can make short work of that.
Posted by fredsaid on 11th of Mar 2021 at 09:24 am
Agreed. Still a valid possibility that the QQQs on the
monthly want to test their 200 DMA down around 290-288.
Looks like ECB announced it wants to hold down rates via bond
buying and the fed may follow suit trying to hold the 10 yr down
but so far they have not committed to that and ultimately with oil
continuing up it will be difficult to stop. I hope we get a
massive rally in the QQQs today to add to my SQQQ 4/1 puts.
i've been following the market and rotating into Oil names,
WFC (See my comments where I saw 42 by next week), also
holding GLD, RIOT, BA,URA and DBC. As Matt stated last
night, I agree that Oil could easily see $100 this year which means
that all the oil names will make new 52 weeks highs - looks to be
the best play over the next few months.
yes regarding the VVIX, also lately it hasn't been recycling
back below 110 in short amounts of time, so I'm not sure how it
behaves when it does that.
the indexes assuming their in a 5th wave, would have higher to
go first. The really bullish case would be a wave 3 here
instead.
the VVIX is something to be aware of and monitor but get your
triggers from price action
Also if one of you wants a little project - take a VVIX chart
and go back 5 and 10 years and compile all the signals in Google
Sheet doc, so that we can start to look at past statistics, that's
really the one way to fully investigate how well something works
and have confidence in it
Posted by rmoore100 on 11th of Mar 2021 at 11:09 am
Maybe this time the VOMMA over 110 indicator is similar to last
August 27th 2020 where there was a price increase, then a spike up,
then a sizeable reversal in the market. Took about 4
days. Just a thought.
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Looks like VOMMA will close
Posted by timebandit on 10th of Mar 2021 at 03:35 pm
Looks like VOMMA will close above 110, unless something crazy happens in the last half hour. It's 115.48 right now. Don't know what to make of this. The market has been building energy while coiling most of the day. While I typed this it has sold off some, but nothing extreme. We'll have to see what happens overnight, I guess. I'm mainly confused, my normal state of affairs.
Ok. Let's see. VOMMA went
Posted by fredsaid on 10th of Mar 2021 at 03:46 pm
Ok. Let's see. VOMMA went under and came back up again (Last 2 times in the last few weeks, this has been a ringer for a massive sell off mostly in the QQQs and S&P). Tons of money still flowing into cyclicals (Financials, Materials, Oil and Energy - witness DOW new highs every day incl now), something has to pay for all that... Plus looking at Steve's last SnP chart, wedge could still fail. I'm betting we get another big dump of the QQQs.
Today's candle is pretty ugly
Posted by timebandit on 10th of Mar 2021 at 04:38 pm
Today's candle is pretty ugly for the QQQs. Gapped up and tagged the 20/50 MAs, which are crossing in the bad way. QQQs ended the day below the 9, 20, and 50. The SPY candle ain't so hot either, with a long legged doji marking indecision. Although SPY is above the 9 and 20 MAs, which are crossing in the good way. Perhaps SPY is a little extended from the 9 ema and needs to pull back a bit? We shall see. I went short the QQQs in the early afternoon and then watched them meander back and forth across my buy in price for the rest of the day. I'm showing a profit now, but the night monkeys can make short work of that.
Yeah, that didn't work. Should
Posted by timebandit on 11th of Mar 2021 at 08:15 am
Yeah, that didn't work. Should have followed Matt's advice a few days ago. The way markets gap up these days, long at the close is the trade.
VVIX signal can be early,
Posted by retirefire on 11th of Mar 2021 at 08:58 am
VVIX signal can be early, not defined by time. I think SPX just hit top of wedge matt showed (15 min SPX) . based on ES
Agreed. Still a valid possibility
Posted by fredsaid on 11th of Mar 2021 at 09:24 am
Agreed. Still a valid possibility that the QQQs on the monthly want to test their 200 DMA down around 290-288. Looks like ECB announced it wants to hold down rates via bond buying and the fed may follow suit trying to hold the 10 yr down but so far they have not committed to that and ultimately with oil continuing up it will be difficult to stop. I hope we get a massive rally in the QQQs today to add to my SQQQ 4/1 puts. i've been following the market and rotating into Oil names, WFC (See my comments where I saw 42 by next week), also holding GLD, RIOT, BA,URA and DBC. As Matt stated last night, I agree that Oil could easily see $100 this year which means that all the oil names will make new 52 weeks highs - looks to be the best play over the next few months.
yes regarding the VVIX, also
Posted by matt on 11th of Mar 2021 at 09:24 am
yes regarding the VVIX, also lately it hasn't been recycling back below 110 in short amounts of time, so I'm not sure how it behaves when it does that.
the indexes assuming their in a 5th wave, would have higher to go first. The really bullish case would be a wave 3 here instead.
the VVIX is something to be aware of and monitor but get your triggers from price action
Also if one of you wants a little project - take a VVIX chart and go back 5 and 10 years and compile all the signals in Google Sheet doc, so that we can start to look at past statistics, that's really the one way to fully investigate how well something works and have confidence in it
Maybe this time the VOMMA
Posted by rmoore100 on 11th of Mar 2021 at 11:09 am
Maybe this time the VOMMA over 110 indicator is similar to last August 27th 2020 where there was a price increase, then a spike up, then a sizeable reversal in the market. Took about 4 days. Just a thought.