For the 9th month in a row, US Industrial Production declined YoY -
down by 1.4% - with 0.4% monthly drop twice as bad as expected.
Every subcomponent of the data also declined markedly. Most
worryingly, and despite near record highs in stocks,
this is the longest streak of IP weakness without a broad economic
recession in US history
... it's different this time?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:10 pm
I completely understand that there are people who use BPT
who know all about and read the posts on Zerohedge every day like I
do. But I also think that there are probably members who really
don't know anything about ZH, or some of the other informative
sites that I post about here - or simply don't have the time to
spend looking for new information during the day or at night like I
do most days. I'm just trying to help my fellow members be aware of
what's going on so that we all can make money together. I'll look
forward to reading anything you might post that can help our little
"community" here make money.
Posted by mphailey on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:20 pm
Sbaxman, I
meant no disrespect -- I want that to be perfectly clear.
I
love our community and I agree that we should all strive to help
each other make money. I also believe Zero Hedge might be the
smartest financial blog around. Why?Because anyone who
writes in finance knows that bearish articles are the most popular.
By far. People like to read about The End of Days. No one wants to
hear that things are right in the world, even if that's more
likely.
Which makes Zero Hedge a brilliant business concept. Write only
bearish articles that collect the highest number of hits. Sell
advertising. Collect revenues.
Owning ZH (w/ 80m page views) is one thing. Spreading ZH charts or
linking to the site, and the joke is on you.
I
don’t think reading zerohedge helps people make money – in fact I
think it keeps people out of the market and prevents them from
taking risk.
That being said, I was merely making a suggestion and you are, of
course, free to post whatever you want. And you final point is well
taken – I will strive to post helpful charts and links in the
future.
Tonight, I must confess, I'm still wondering how today's
charts that I posted somehow became about Zerohedge being an overly
"negative" site, and the fact that it seemingly preys on people's
fear just so that it can make money. And if I were to use
information from its site here by sharing it on BPT, that somehow
"the joke is on you". Seriously! It's just some copied charts about
some current market data.
If I really wanted to post negative info I would just copy
stuff from Tim Knight's Slope of Hope site. Tim is often ticked off
at any good market news that goes against his predominantly bearish
positions. And, be assured that I personally find intrusive
advertisements on such websites to be so irritating, that I would
never consider a product that might be promoted there.
Zerohedge just isn't a trading site - it's an opinion
site......just like CNBC, Fox Business, or Bloomberg. Not many
people are making real money from those opinion sources
either.
With all due to respect to those who do, I personally
don't care a whit about ZH's online "strategy to make money" for
itself, or if it supposedly feeds at the "trough of negativity". I
don't look at or identify with ZH information because of its
perceived overall negative "ideology" any more than I listen to the
buy and hold, asset allocation, "ideology" expressed by those from
Wall St and CNBC, who always seem to think every day is a good day
to buy more stocks. I think for myself, and I want to hear
conflicting or contrarian ideas that might be outside of my own
comfort zone.
I'm just interested in finding current and informative
ideas and data points, sometimes expressed in nice colorful charts
like I found today, that I can use to analyze the current market
conditions. Then I can try and make an informed decision on what to
own, and when to own it. Today I put up two such charts that I found very
interesting - they just happened to be from
ZH.
I'm an old (literally) HS basketball coach. To those of you
who are somewhat uniformed about coaching HS kids, this meant that
all team victories were due to the skill of the players, and all
losses were a result of my inability to coach properly.
But even back then I used to carefully track certain team
and individual statistical data points that had a strong historical
tendency to identify/predict what it took, statistically speaking,
to win basketball games. (see the effect that "Moneyball" programs
have had on professional sports regarding statistical
probabilities) In those old coaching days (pre 3 point shot in HS) simply
possessing the ball was statistically worth about 0.9 points a
possession. If you averaged more than 1 point per possession, you
could win a lot of HS basketball games. This concept was actually
known as "OER - offensive efficiency rating". I might even be able
to call it "coaching technical analysis". Taking a "high percentage
good shot" during your possessions (a high % trade today), and
playing good defense to limit the opponent's chances to score
(reduce market losses), feels a lot like BPT trading stocks and
index funds/etf's to me.
When the industrial production data chart I posted today
indicated that its current low level has never previously occurred
outside of a recession, that got my attention...especially when
that divergence took place just a few days ago we seemed on the
threshold of a new high in the SPX.
It's not a big reach to think that there is a lot of data
out there that supports a concerning view of current domestic and
worldwide economic conditions. But, short-term, the statistical and
technical factors that we use here, specifically tell us that we
should have some money IN the market, and not be shorting against
it. That current trading position stands in direct conflict with
today's longer term ZH Industrial Production chart.....
I watch the VIX, RVX, and a few other volatility indicators
every day. Today's VIX chart that I posted came from a Dana Lyons
Tumblr article, that just happened to also be found on ZH. I left
out the article's verbage and decided to just post the chart. But
the article did have some very interesting data points (and least
to me) to go along with the chart. Here are the 5 headlines within
the overall article that I didn't post:
1) June 13, 2016 marked the 86th time in which the VIX rose >20%
in a day; of those days, it was just the 3rd time in which the
S&P 500 fell <1%.
2) This marked the 42nd time in which the VIX rose >50% in a
week; it was the 1st such time in which the S&P 500 fell
<1.5%.
3) The past 2 days marked the 20th time the VIX rose >40% in 2 days; this is the 1st
such time in which the S&P 500 fell <2%.
4) This was the 9th time that the VIX rose >15% on consecutive days;
during the prior 8 occasions, the S&P 500 dropped >1% on
both days while, this time, neither of the past 2 days were down
>1%.
5) After yesterday, 689 Days since 1986 have seen the VIX close
more than 60% above its 3-month low; this is just the 11th such day
with the S&P 500 <2% from its 3-month high.
Hmmmm....So, it seems that the most recent weak SPX/market decline
response to a significant jump in the VIX is well outside the
historical norms. I think this is important information to have. My
immediate guess is that the Fed and/or ECB perceived market
interference regarding rates is a likely reason for this muted
reaction to the VIX spike.
As such, I happen to find the above data points, procured for FREE
from ZH, quite valuable and worthy of consideration. I'm grateful
that there are some really smart people out there who research this
stuff, and then report and chart on their results for
free.
If we all weren't market contrarian types here to some degree, we
certainly wouldn't be on this BPT site paying for Matt and Steve's
help, and sharing our own thoughts on things at the same time. I'm
all for members posting ideas, articles, and charts that he/she
thinks are of value. I'm impressed by a lot of what I read from my
fellow traders. I simply won't care what the "agenda" is of the
place/website where you find your information/data (so long as its
legal) that you might be sharing. And if it leads to a productive
debate within our group, so much the better.
Lastly, if anyone else here in the group wants to
communicate/debate/disagree with me by starting off with a "title"
greeting at the top of your email, I would actually appreciate it
(as a Senior Citizen) if you start off with a"Hey Dude", instead of
a "Hey Man"..... as the "DUDE"moniker seems to be something my
teenage Grandchildren use to indicate someone, who to them, is
"cool", "with it", and kind of "hip". Of course, buying them things
they like
(with my BPT profits)
, does a lot to increase the chance of being considered the "cool"
Grandparent Dude. LOL
as well as your sentiments. Much like Matt or Steve's big
picture analysis of the S&P, DOW and NASDAQ, they provide a
macro perspective that either supports or conflicts with our
individual trades. That can only be helpful.
Posted by hamvestor on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:36 pm
You summed up the ZH phenomenon very artfully. The seemingly
relentless negativity by some members (and on other sites I follow,
especially PM sites) gets really wearisome sometimes. It's
important to have both sides on the issues that affect us, but I'm
always intrigued at the need of many to feed at the trough of
negativity and pessimism. I guess it fills a human need, but it's
nice to have some balance on occasion.
Thanks Sbaxman for all of your input. I am one of those
who does not have time to do the research and your posts are always
informative and welcome. Yes, our goal here at BPT is to make
money, plain and simple. Keep up the great work!
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Industrial production
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Jun 2016 at 12:59 pm
For the 9th month in a row, US Industrial Production declined YoY - down by 1.4% - with 0.4% monthly drop twice as bad as expected. Every subcomponent of the data also declined markedly. Most worryingly, and despite near record highs in stocks, this is the longest streak of IP weakness without a broad economic recession in US history ... it's different this time?
Hey man, no offense, if
Posted by mphailey on 15th of Jun 2016 at 01:55 pm
Hey man, no offense, if we want to read Zerohedge, maybe we can just go to the site ourselves?
I completely understand that there
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:10 pm
I completely understand that there are people who use BPT who know all about and read the posts on Zerohedge every day like I do. But I also think that there are probably members who really don't know anything about ZH, or some of the other informative sites that I post about here - or simply don't have the time to spend looking for new information during the day or at night like I do most days. I'm just trying to help my fellow members be aware of what's going on so that we all can make money together. I'll look forward to reading anything you might post that can help our little "community" here make money.
always appreciate your excellent posts.
Posted by wowten on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:31 pm
always appreciate your excellent posts. Suggestion - please include source - would also be helpful
Sbaxman, I meant no disrespect --
Posted by mphailey on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:20 pm
Sbaxman, I meant no disrespect -- I want that to be perfectly clear.
I love our community and I agree that we should all strive to help each other make money. I also believe Zero Hedge might be the smartest financial blog around. Why?Because anyone who writes in finance knows that bearish articles are the most popular. By far. People like to read about The End of Days. No one wants to hear that things are right in the world, even if that's more likely.
Which makes Zero Hedge a brilliant business concept. Write only bearish articles that collect the highest number of hits. Sell advertising. Collect revenues.
Owning ZH (w/ 80m page views) is one thing. Spreading ZH charts or linking to the site, and the joke is on you.
I don’t think reading zerohedge helps people make money – in fact I think it keeps people out of the market and prevents them from taking risk.
That being said, I was merely making a suggestion and you are, of course, free to post whatever you want. And you final point is well taken – I will strive to post helpful charts and links in the future.
Title: click to show comments Tonight,
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Jun 2016 at 10:44 pm
Tonight, I must confess, I'm still wondering how today's charts that I posted somehow became about Zerohedge being an overly "negative" site, and the fact that it seemingly preys on people's fear just so that it can make money. And if I were to use information from its site here by sharing it on BPT, that somehow "the joke is on you". Seriously! It's just some copied charts about some current market data.
If I really wanted to post negative info I would just copy stuff from Tim Knight's Slope of Hope site. Tim is often ticked off at any good market news that goes against his predominantly bearish positions. And, be assured that I personally find intrusive advertisements on such websites to be so irritating, that I would never consider a product that might be promoted there.
Zerohedge just isn't a trading site - it's an opinion site......just like CNBC, Fox Business, or Bloomberg. Not many people are making real money from those opinion sources either.
With all due to respect to those who do, I personally don't care a whit about ZH's online "strategy to make money" for itself, or if it supposedly feeds at the "trough of negativity". I don't look at or identify with ZH information because of its perceived overall negative "ideology" any more than I listen to the buy and hold, asset allocation, "ideology" expressed by those from Wall St and CNBC, who always seem to think every day is a good day to buy more stocks. I think for myself, and I want to hear conflicting or contrarian ideas that might be outside of my own comfort zone.
I'm just interested in finding current and informative ideas and data points, sometimes expressed in nice colorful charts like I found today, that I can use to analyze the current market conditions. Then I can try and make an informed decision on what to own, and when to own it. Today I put up two such charts that I found very interesting - they just happened to be from ZH.
I'm an old (literally) HS basketball coach. To those of you who are somewhat uniformed about coaching HS kids, this meant that all team victories were due to the skill of the players, and all losses were a result of my inability to coach properly.
But even back then I used to carefully track certain team and individual statistical data points that had a strong historical tendency to identify/predict what it took, statistically speaking, to win basketball games. (see the effect that "Moneyball" programs have had on professional sports regarding statistical probabilities) In those old coaching days (pre 3 point shot in HS) simply possessing the ball was statistically worth about 0.9 points a possession. If you averaged more than 1 point per possession, you could win a lot of HS basketball games. This concept was actually known as "OER - offensive efficiency rating". I might even be able to call it "coaching technical analysis". Taking a "high percentage good shot" during your possessions (a high % trade today), and playing good defense to limit the opponent's chances to score (reduce market losses), feels a lot like BPT trading stocks and index funds/etf's to me.
When the industrial production data chart I posted today indicated that its current low level has never previously occurred outside of a recession, that got my attention...especially when that divergence took place just a few days ago we seemed on the threshold of a new high in the SPX.
It's not a big reach to think that there is a lot of data out there that supports a concerning view of current domestic and worldwide economic conditions. But, short-term, the statistical and technical factors that we use here, specifically tell us that we should have some money IN the market, and not be shorting against it. That current trading position stands in direct conflict with today's longer term ZH Industrial Production chart.....
I watch the VIX, RVX, and a few other volatility indicators every day. Today's VIX chart that I posted came from a Dana Lyons Tumblr article, that just happened to also be found on ZH. I left out the article's verbage and decided to just post the chart. But the article did have some very interesting data points (and least to me) to go along with the chart. Here are the 5 headlines within the overall article that I didn't post:
1) June 13, 2016 marked the 86th time in which the VIX rose >20% in a day; of those days, it was just the 3rd time in which the S&P 500 fell <1%.
2) This marked the 42nd time in which the VIX rose >50% in a week; it was the 1st such time in which the S&P 500 fell <1.5%.
3) The past 2 days marked the 20th time the VIX rose >40% in 2 days; this is the 1st such time in which the S&P 500 fell <2%.
4) This was the 9th time that the VIX rose >15% on consecutive days; during the prior 8 occasions, the S&P 500 dropped >1% on both days while, this time, neither of the past 2 days were down >1%.
5) After yesterday, 689 Days since 1986 have seen the VIX close more than 60% above its 3-month low; this is just the 11th such day with the S&P 500 <2% from its 3-month high.
Hmmmm....So, it seems that the most recent weak SPX/market decline response to a significant jump in the VIX is well outside the historical norms. I think this is important information to have. My immediate guess is that the Fed and/or ECB perceived market interference regarding rates is a likely reason for this muted reaction to the VIX spike.
As such, I happen to find the above data points, procured for FREE from ZH, quite valuable and worthy of consideration. I'm grateful that there are some really smart people out there who research this stuff, and then report and chart on their results for free.
If we all weren't market contrarian types here to some degree, we certainly wouldn't be on this BPT site paying for Matt and Steve's help, and sharing our own thoughts on things at the same time. I'm all for members posting ideas, articles, and charts that he/she thinks are of value. I'm impressed by a lot of what I read from my fellow traders. I simply won't care what the "agenda" is of the place/website where you find your information/data (so long as its legal) that you might be sharing. And if it leads to a productive debate within our group, so much the better.
Lastly, if anyone else here in the group wants to communicate/debate/disagree with me by starting off with a "title" greeting at the top of your email, I would actually appreciate it (as a Senior Citizen) if you start off with a"Hey Dude", instead of a "Hey Man"..... as the "DUDE"moniker seems to be something my teenage Grandchildren use to indicate someone, who to them, is "cool", "with it", and kind of "hip". Of course, buying them things they like (with my BPT profits) , does a lot to increase the chance of being considered the "cool" Grandparent Dude. LOL
Good Trading BPT'ers
I for one appreciate the charts you posted...
Posted by RichieD on 16th of Jun 2016 at 06:10 am
as well as your sentiments. Much like Matt or Steve's big picture analysis of the S&P, DOW and NASDAQ, they provide a macro perspective that either supports or conflicts with our individual trades. That can only be helpful.
BOJ
Posted by mphailey on 15th of Jun 2016 at 11:01 pm
No change from BOJ on rates or monetary base Yen crashes through 105 to the dollar for first time since September 2014
S&P Futures selling off slightly in tandem with the USD/JPY
You want negative...
Posted by stevieb294 on 15th of Jun 2016 at 06:13 pm
..let me post something from Drudge!
mphailey, thank you
Posted by hamvestor on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:36 pm
You summed up the ZH phenomenon very artfully. The seemingly relentless negativity by some members (and on other sites I follow, especially PM sites) gets really wearisome sometimes. It's important to have both sides on the issues that affect us, but I'm always intrigued at the need of many to feed at the trough of negativity and pessimism. I guess it fills a human need, but it's nice to have some balance on occasion.
I don't agree!
Posted by jroger on 15th of Jun 2016 at 02:13 pm
I don't agree!
Thanks Sbaxman for all of
Posted by pebs on 15th of Jun 2016 at 03:14 pm
Thanks Sbaxman for all of your input. I am one of those who does not have time to do the research and your posts are always informative and welcome. Yes, our goal here at BPT is to make money, plain and simple. Keep up the great work!