If the market were to sell off today, even just a small sell
off, the system may go long. Currently the number that would
trigger the system taking a long is a
close below
131.49,
however can can change as the day goes on.
matt -- just to clarify -- you're not talking about using the
trigger number from the previous day, right? You're talking
about if you post a trigger number early in the day, with the
caveat that it can change -- and we trade under that level, its
been good for a long day trade. But not necessarily if we
trade below the un-triggered number from the previous close.
Is that right?
actually what the system has been good at is predicting intra
day lows and highs that would have provided nice one day, day
trades.
For example every instance where we've had a trigger level that
the SPY must close below to go long, if you had bought SPY intra
day when SPY was trading below the trigger level, you always got an
intra day bounce for a nice trade.
Likewise we had a short example where the system would have
shorted if price closed between a certain price range, however
intra day when the SPY was trading within that range if you had
shorted you would have had a nice day trade short.
and Mid day today when SPY was trading below the trigger point,
if you had bought SPY for a day trade, it did run up to 132.14
today for a profitable day trade.
7 for 7 now, remember as I mentioned the other day, every time
the SPY has been below a trigger point for a Long, and above for a
Short, it provided a day trade, it's been perfect every time.
See my post from yesterday for more details.
Today if you bought SPY today when it was trading below the
trigger point of 130.71, you would have had a nice day trade.
for clarification for me, the close yesterday was 131.70-73 but
as I recall , the trigger listed yesterday was 131.49 or lower.
So...today your 7/7 system states "below the trigger point of
130.71". Do you mean below the CLOSE yesterday and not the
original trigger of yesterday of 131.49??
No you can't use that terminology "under the signal", it would
be under the signal for longs, and over the signal for shorts.
We had at least one instance it was either last week or the
week before where the system was looking for a short if price was
over a trigger point (and price was over the trigger that day, but
then sold off into the close.
Posted by sschulman on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 02:49 am
I've been thinking that way too, but maybe not. Looking at some
of the charts showing samples of past trades.
Often enough, the system goes long at the end of a rather steep
down-day. That is, it goes long at the bottom of a red candle. But
we can't tell, from those charts, what the instructions actually
were. Example early February 2010, (the 2nd chart) maybe the
system said to go long anywhere below 109.00. But it looks like the
SPY closed roughly 106.70 on that day.
'Course the system would have made you money on
that particular trade even if you got in around 109.00 but the EOD
entry was the right one.
By "every instance," do you mean in the history of the system?
In other words, does the day trade idea off of intra-day lows
and highs have a perfect record during the period that the system
has been backtested? Or are you talking about recent
history?
Once a trigger level has been set for a trade and it gets within
15 min of closing, is it OK to put in a limit order to buy with the
limit set to the trigger level? What's the risk other than
maybe the trigger will go down a littile more?
Posted by traderrandy on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 01:53 pm
Bob,
If you set a limit order 15 min before the close there is a good
chance your order will fill and the SPY price will then rise above
the trigger before the close. In this case, the SPY will
still be in cash.
SPY system trade today
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 10:11 am
If the market were to sell off today, even just a small sell off, the system may go long. Currently the number that would trigger the system taking a long is a close below 131.49, however can can change as the day goes on.
intraday trades
Posted by Michael on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 01:23 pm
matt -- just to clarify -- you're not talking about using the trigger number from the previous day, right? You're talking about if you post a trigger number early in the day, with the caveat that it can change -- and we trade under that level, its been good for a long day trade. But not necessarily if we trade below the un-triggered number from the previous close. Is that right?
you mean for day trade?
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 02:29 pm
you mean for day trade? I'm talking about the trigger price for the current day only, the previous days hold no meaning
This system is damn good
Posted by willc on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:55 pm
This system is damn good at predicting closes
actually what the system has
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 04:20 pm
actually what the system has been good at is predicting intra day lows and highs that would have provided nice one day, day trades.
For example every instance where we've had a trigger level that the SPY must close below to go long, if you had bought SPY intra day when SPY was trading below the trigger level, you always got an intra day bounce for a nice trade.
Likewise we had a short example where the system would have shorted if price closed between a certain price range, however intra day when the SPY was trading within that range if you had shorted you would have had a nice day trade short.
and Mid day today when SPY was trading below the trigger point, if you had bought SPY for a day trade, it did run up to 132.14 today for a profitable day trade.
7 for 7 now, remember
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 10:50 am
7 for 7 now, remember as I mentioned the other day, every time the SPY has been below a trigger point for a Long, and above for a Short, it provided a day trade, it's been perfect every time. See my post from yesterday for more details.
Today if you bought SPY today when it was trading below the trigger point of 130.71, you would have had a nice day trade.
Matt
Posted by mark11 on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 12:30 pm
for clarification for me, the close yesterday was 131.70-73 but as I recall , the trigger listed yesterday was 131.49 or lower. So...today your 7/7 system states "below the trigger point of 130.71". Do you mean below the CLOSE yesterday and not the original trigger of yesterday of 131.49??
7/7 taking daytrade longs when price is under the signal...
Posted by lessarda on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 12:35 pm
...and vice versa...
Posted by lessarda on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 12:54 pm
longs over / shorts under
No you can't use that
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 12:46 pm
No you can't use that terminology "under the signal", it would be under the signal for longs, and over the signal for shorts. We had at least one instance it was either last week or the week before where the system was looking for a short if price was over a trigger point (and price was over the trigger that day, but then sold off into the close.
wow, great to see those
Posted by riollano on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 11:10 am
wow, great to see those numbers...
I took the trade this morning after seeing the bogey, and closed the trade for +5 on 1 ES...
thanks Matt
This is a great addition to the system -- more action!
Posted by lessarda on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 10:53 am
Thanks for posting the bogey each day, Matt. Took the signal this morning.
Maybe not
Posted by sschulman on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 02:49 am
I've been thinking that way too, but maybe not. Looking at some of the charts showing samples of past trades.
Often enough, the system goes long at the end of a rather steep down-day. That is, it goes long at the bottom of a red candle. But we can't tell, from those charts, what the instructions actually were. Example early February 2010, (the 2nd chart) maybe the system said to go long anywhere below 109.00. But it looks like the SPY closed roughly 106.70 on that day.
'Course the system would have made you money on that particular trade even if you got in around 109.00 but the EOD entry was the right one.
.....Susan
interesting observation. Will you be
Posted by cemerman on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 09:51 pm
interesting observation. Will you be posting that trigger level when you see it during the day?
I've always been posting the
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jun 2011 at 02:23 am
I've always been posting the trigger levels on the blog
Very intersting, Matt. By "every instance,"
Posted by algyros on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 04:26 pm
Very intersting, Matt.
By "every instance," do you mean in the history of the system? In other words, does the day trade idea off of intra-day lows and highs have a perfect record during the period that the system has been backtested? Or are you talking about recent history?
I have no way to
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 04:32 pm
I have no way to back test that since it's not an intra bar system, it's an end of day system. it's just what I've noticed since it's been live.
CNBC use to have the closing bell contest, i think matt should enter :)
Posted by gram on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 04:00 pm
LOL
Posted by Michael on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:57 pm
LOL
looks like they want us
Posted by dylan398 on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:52 pm
looks like they want us to sweat again today!
So much for taking the
Posted by 24kau on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 04:00 pm
So much for taking the emotion out of trading LOL
close call
Posted by meaghan on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:56 pm
Yep 4 min to go and it needs to drop about 20 cents
Yep, another nailbiter! Let's sell
Posted by pebs on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:55 pm
Yep, another nailbiter! Let's sell 'er off and get this over with!
...so long @ $131.48 or
Posted by hpope on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:05 pm
...so long @ $131.48 or lower. (The post says, " close below 131.49)
I see $131.49 but where
Posted by ditch on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:15 pm
I see $131.49 but where did you get 131.48 ?
different way to say the
Posted by randy on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:35 pm
different way to say the same thing, if it closes at 131.49 no trade but you take the trade at 131.48 ( or lower ) comes out the same
I just got the email
Posted by ditch on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 01:54 pm
I just got the email alert for today 6/2 and that's a great clear message. Thanks guys.
Ok to Use a Limit Order?
Posted by bobkrish on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 01:47 pm
Once a trigger level has been set for a trade and it gets within 15 min of closing, is it OK to put in a limit order to buy with the limit set to the trigger level? What's the risk other than maybe the trigger will go down a littile more?
Bob K.
not a good idea
Posted by traderrandy on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 01:53 pm
Bob,
If you set a limit order 15 min before the close there is a good chance your order will fill and the SPY price will then rise above the trigger before the close. In this case, the SPY will still be in cash.
IB has limit on close; not all do...
Posted by lessarda on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 02:17 pm