I have to get out of this sinking ship Illinois. I knew it
was coming, the Dems control the congress here and the Gov is a
Dem. IL is one of the worst fiscally sound states as you know
next to California with their debt. Anyway they are raising
state income tax 75% and raising the corporate tax to the 3rd
highest in the nation. They are also adding a $1 a pack
to cigarettes, I don't smoke so it doesn't bother me, but it's
amazing how states think that taxing cigarettes is the answer to
their prayers. They are also adding casinos to add revenue we
only know goes so far.
Also the IL gov is NOT cutting any spending! instead their plan
is to limit spending increases to 2% per year LOL.
The real kicker is that they said don't worry this is only
temporary, after 4 years we will lower the taxes back down, take
away the increases. If you believe that, I have a few penny stocks
to sell you that are going to $100 LOL.
Looking at moving to either TX, FL, etc, though might be
hard with the baby coming
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 10:51 pm
With all due respect Matt what happened to the other wave down
you guys talked about for almost 2 years (before this last big
run)? You guys would always warn that even though the market
was going up that we were in a counter trend that would eventually
turn back down in a big way. Granted you and Steve have been
saying to play the up trend the last few months and to follow price
which has (and I suppose will always be) spot on but have you guys
given up on this "C" wave down theory that you used to mention in
the nightly reports?
I remember you saying all the time that the "B" wave up was
meant to shake out every last bear, have everyone believing that we
are indeed in a new bull market and fool the masses before heading
back down. Well, lo and behold let's take an inventory:
1. I can't remember the last time anyone on this site
(especially in the nightly report) suggesting this is
only a "B" wave up and there is still the possibility of a
major "C" wave down. I mean for goodness sakes, I'm seeing
you guys targeting the mid 1400's to 1500's now. That turn in
thinking seems like the very same thinking you were warning us
about earlier.
2. Seems as though BPT has become somewhat of a penny
stock (at least stocks under $10) pump and dump site to some
extent....it's obviously working but just an observation of all the
trade ideas being shared on the long side (many have even been
under "$5")....very interesting from a sentiment standpoint.
3. I've also found it interesting that you have said a
couple times now over the last week that anyone who dare
try to pick a point at which the market may turn down is a
"loser". Not saying that continually trying to call a top is
a winning strategy but that terminology seems interesting if we are
indeed still in a "B" wave up as you once warned us about.
4. Look at the sentiment surveys, does seem like the
general public and newsletter writers are certainly on board the
bull bus in a big way which you used to mention would happen at the
top of the "B" wave.
I mean absolutely no disrespect with these comments but just
some observations I've noticed.
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this
scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are
currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some
point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market
and the market would continue higher unabated (sound
familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely
looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me
not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've
accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to
happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and
scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper
focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it
moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't
even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at
in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was
to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is
this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know
that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used
to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in
spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
its actually a good question about primary three down --
Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left
and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and
actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were
close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I
wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really
feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone
believes we're going higher. Even Prechter.
Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this
spring.
I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of
rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds
reasonable to me.
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up
or Reverse if you were short. I would watch
PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your
WOMAN... LOL
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being
trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or
due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated
targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't
been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but
at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact
due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that..
then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was
calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at
900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of
Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He
doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son
taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even
believe in his old man. Also,
with the internet, modern computers, and
central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where
there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under
current conditions? Since we never had the
internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later
on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays
conditions. Unitl someone can prove
otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let
the winners ride.
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha
Marketguy, I just wanted to respond to one of your comments. I
know that I post a lot of lower priced stocks. I tend to look in
the PMs and am looking for large movements - my scans right now are
for the .80 to $6 range. They are my comfort zone, no options
expiration or short overhang to worry about for the most part. I
appreciate that there is a wide range of trades given on the site
and that everyone is so generous with their knowledge and
ideas.
Posted by marketguy on 16th of Jan 2011 at 12:31 am
Hi baker....not in the least bashing anyone for posting ideas
(believe me, I'd be the last one to say anything about anyone's
ideas given my track record)....
my post is just a note on when folks are looking consistently at
lower price stock plays that's got to say something about sentiment
in general...
They raised individual income tax from 3% to 5%
Business taxes from 4.8% to 7%
No spending cuts
New casinos
I live near Chicago in Cook County, so I get the worst of all
worlds highest sales tax, highest gas tax, ridiculous property
taxes, etc...to heck with IL and the clowns that get
re-elected. The taxes will drive what is left of the
productive people out, leaving only those collecting or part of the
public employee unions. Ug, I am so disgusted.
I've been considering leaving the state for sometime and am
actively looking into new job opportunities. I like CO, TX,
TN, AL and IN (to stay close to home).
Good luck in your search Matt, or anyone else stuck in possibly
the worst state in the Union!!
Posted by mbpeters42 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:14 pm
for about an hour after having posted my remark about LOW's
price today, only to come back for a follow-up look. The
whole string of comments in response to Matt's
posting about Illinois, are a surprise; but, it takes me
back to my crying - yesterday - about my not having sold UPL when I
should have. OK, I got out of it this morning, but my real
story is my remarks about having had to travel. I pulled up
stakes from Washington State and departed for central Missouri
the day before Christmas and arrived here via I-5, I-10 and I-35 on
January 7th. My favorite remark of late is:
Well, you know what Michelle said don't you? ( lengthy pause ) Who?
comes the question. "You know, the President's wife," say
I. Oh, of course, someone will say. I continue, "She
said, Barach will never let you go back to your comfort
zone." Well - I continue - I don't have any comfort zone
left. It is done gone!
--- --- --- --- ---
In advance: Sorry for my rant. Keep on trucking!
MBP
Tennessee or Texas, I agree. Nashville is probably best choice
in TN....Texas is probably the most business friendly and fiscally
responsible state...anywhere around Dallas or Austin IMO
I suggest ranking the states first by income tax rate, then by
financial strength, and then by family location (as in how far away
will the grandparents be??)
Choose one and make the move! I prefer Texas and Tennesee, but
Nevada is ok as are some parts of Florida. Best to check real
estate and sales taxes first.
OK back online finally, took longer then expected. I
needed some new outlets put into the house, they needed to turn off
the power. The market is higher, that's cool, GDX is still
weak as hell, that's cool too
thanks for all the posts on moving! yeah I'll let you guys
know where I decide to move to!
Posted by srleblanc on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:47 pm
Thailand is pretty nice, too...and no capital gains tax on your
trading profits!
Thailand stock market was the 2nd best performing market in the
world, next to the Philippines last year. I am about to open up a
brokerage in the Phils, too.
That's how system trades are. One big trap that people fall
into is that they lose on a couple system trades in a row, then
turn it off, then as fate works the next system trade is a big
winner but they miss it because they didn't do the trade, then they
turn it back on and it's a losing trade, then they turn it off and
of course miss the next winning trade again etc etc - emotional
roller coaster
Also when you see a couple whipsaws in a system, as long as the
system is still fine, that is actually useful information because
it tells you that it's due for a trend trade. The GDX system
had two whipsaws, so it was due for a trending trade
actually, the wife is making me move my trading room downstairs,
she wants the trading room for the baby room LOL, will be a pain
moving all the equipment and stuff, but the baby and wife are the
boss now!
Illinois dummies
Posted by matt on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:32 pm
I have to get out of this sinking ship Illinois. I knew it was coming, the Dems control the congress here and the Gov is a Dem. IL is one of the worst fiscally sound states as you know next to California with their debt. Anyway they are raising state income tax 75% and raising the corporate tax to the 3rd highest in the nation. They are also adding a $1 a pack to cigarettes, I don't smoke so it doesn't bother me, but it's amazing how states think that taxing cigarettes is the answer to their prayers. They are also adding casinos to add revenue we only know goes so far.
Also the IL gov is NOT cutting any spending! instead their plan is to limit spending increases to 2% per year LOL.
The real kicker is that they said don't worry this is only temporary, after 4 years we will lower the taxes back down, take away the increases. If you believe that, I have a few penny stocks to sell you that are going to $100 LOL.
Looking at moving to either TX, FL, etc, though might be hard with the baby coming
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 10:51 pm
With all due respect Matt what happened to the other wave down you guys talked about for almost 2 years (before this last big run)? You guys would always warn that even though the market was going up that we were in a counter trend that would eventually turn back down in a big way. Granted you and Steve have been saying to play the up trend the last few months and to follow price which has (and I suppose will always be) spot on but have you guys given up on this "C" wave down theory that you used to mention in the nightly reports?
I remember you saying all the time that the "B" wave up was meant to shake out every last bear, have everyone believing that we are indeed in a new bull market and fool the masses before heading back down. Well, lo and behold let's take an inventory:
1. I can't remember the last time anyone on this site (especially in the nightly report) suggesting this is only a "B" wave up and there is still the possibility of a major "C" wave down. I mean for goodness sakes, I'm seeing you guys targeting the mid 1400's to 1500's now. That turn in thinking seems like the very same thinking you were warning us about earlier.
2. Seems as though BPT has become somewhat of a penny stock (at least stocks under $10) pump and dump site to some extent....it's obviously working but just an observation of all the trade ideas being shared on the long side (many have even been under "$5")....very interesting from a sentiment standpoint.
3. I've also found it interesting that you have said a couple times now over the last week that anyone who dare try to pick a point at which the market may turn down is a "loser". Not saying that continually trying to call a top is a winning strategy but that terminology seems interesting if we are indeed still in a "B" wave up as you once warned us about.
4. Look at the sentiment surveys, does seem like the general public and newsletter writers are certainly on board the bull bus in a big way which you used to mention would happen at the top of the "B" wave.
I mean absolutely no disrespect with these comments but just some observations I've noticed.
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market and the market would continue higher unabated (sound familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
MG
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 18th of Jan 2011 at 07:23 pm
I should caveat this post from last night that a couple blogs I still think are worth checking in on are the below:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ (updated nightly, very unbiased and very technically based....free)
http://www.sentimentrader.com/ (not so sure about all their data points but do nice one off studies...subscription required)
http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/ (primarily for survey/sentiment data...free)
wave 3 down
Posted by Michael on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:51 pm
its actually a good question about primary three down -- Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone believes we're going higher. Even Prechter. Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this spring. I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds reasonable to me.
wouldn't that be the ultimate
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:56 pm
wouldn't that be the ultimate irony, market goes down hard now as Prechter is bullish
Precter
Posted by maggi3322 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 11:24 pm
No kidding! Where did you see that precter is bullish???
I think I read it
Posted by Michael on 18th of Jan 2011 at 06:50 am
I think I read it on Yelnick.
Price is KING! NOT ELLIOT WAVE!
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:00 pm
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up or Reverse if you were short. I would watch PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your WOMAN... LOL
zach...not saying that Price isn't
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
Prechter
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:36 pm
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that.. then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at 900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even believe in his old man. Also, with the internet, modern computers, and central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under current conditions? Since we never had the internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays conditions. Unitl someone can prove otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let the winners ride.
holy sheet
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha
Agree totally
Posted by sfeid on 17th of Jan 2011 at 08:43 am
Looking for 10cent pops in 2 dollar stocks signals the end to me
Marketguy, I just wanted to
Posted by baker on 15th of Jan 2011 at 08:42 pm
Marketguy, I just wanted to respond to one of your comments. I know that I post a lot of lower priced stocks. I tend to look in the PMs and am looking for large movements - my scans right now are for the .80 to $6 range. They are my comfort zone, no options expiration or short overhang to worry about for the most part. I appreciate that there is a wide range of trades given on the site and that everyone is so generous with their knowledge and ideas.
Hi baker....not in the least
Posted by marketguy on 16th of Jan 2011 at 12:31 am
Hi baker....not in the least bashing anyone for posting ideas (believe me, I'd be the last one to say anything about anyone's ideas given my track record)....
my post is just a note on when folks are looking consistently at lower price stock plays that's got to say something about sentiment in general...
continued luck...
I hear you. I have
Posted by baker on 16th of Jan 2011 at 11:16 am
I hear you. I have an uncanny ability to be a contrary indicator :-)
RE: Illinois (agree with Matt)
Posted by oops1e on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:57 pm
I'm from IL as well and not happy. You can read the WSJ article here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704803604576078291454012106.html
They raised individual income tax from 3% to 5%
Business taxes from 4.8% to 7%
No spending cuts
New casinos
I live near Chicago in Cook County, so I get the worst of all worlds highest sales tax, highest gas tax, ridiculous property taxes, etc...to heck with IL and the clowns that get re-elected. The taxes will drive what is left of the productive people out, leaving only those collecting or part of the public employee unions. Ug, I am so disgusted.
I've been considering leaving the state for sometime and am actively looking into new job opportunities. I like CO, TX, TN, AL and IN (to stay close to home).
Good luck in your search Matt, or anyone else stuck in possibly the worst state in the Union!!
Wow, I turnd a way from BPT and the market
Posted by mbpeters42 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:14 pm
for about an hour after having posted my remark about LOW's price today, only to come back for a follow-up look. The whole string of comments in response to Matt's posting about Illinois, are a surprise; but, it takes me back to my crying - yesterday - about my not having sold UPL when I should have. OK, I got out of it this morning, but my real story is my remarks about having had to travel. I pulled up stakes from Washington State and departed for central Missouri the day before Christmas and arrived here via I-5, I-10 and I-35 on January 7th. My favorite remark of late is: Well, you know what Michelle said don't you? ( lengthy pause ) Who? comes the question. "You know, the President's wife," say I. Oh, of course, someone will say. I continue, "She said, Barach will never let you go back to your comfort zone." Well - I continue - I don't have any comfort zone left. It is done gone!
--- --- --- --- ---
In advance: Sorry for my rant. Keep on trucking! MBP
Illinois Dummies
Posted by tonto on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:39 pm
Tennessee or Texas, I agree. Nashville is probably best choice in TN....Texas is probably the most business friendly and fiscally responsible state...anywhere around Dallas or Austin IMO
Texas the most fiscally responsible state?
Posted by James_Roe on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:52 pm
That or they could have a 25 billion dollar deficit. One of the largest in the nation.
Austin is pretty cool but
Posted by bkout3 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:51 pm
Austin is pretty cool but weather was better in FL and allergies are terrible here
Austin
Posted by zach06 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:55 pm
Too many liberals in Austin LOL
moving right along
Posted by hazbin1 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:46 pm
I suggest ranking the states first by income tax rate, then by financial strength, and then by family location (as in how far away will the grandparents be??)
Fort Worth
Posted by zach06 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:45 pm
Fort Worth is growing fast
Delaware is almost " tax free " .
Posted by donald on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:11 pm
Seven Income Tax Free States
Posted by perthx on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:09 pm
Choose one and make the move! I prefer Texas and Tennesee, but Nevada is ok as are some parts of Florida. Best to check real estate and sales taxes first.
taxes on west coast of fla is cheaper than the east coast..
Posted by fixdgear on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:22 pm
sarasota is an excellent place
Canada
Posted by Palladin on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:01 pm
Come to Canada, the weather is fine!
OK back online finally, took
Posted by matt on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:55 pm
OK back online finally, took longer then expected. I needed some new outlets put into the house, they needed to turn off the power. The market is higher, that's cool, GDX is still weak as hell, that's cool too
thanks for all the posts on moving! yeah I'll let you guys know where I decide to move to!
Thailand is pretty nice, too...and
Posted by srleblanc on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:47 pm
Thailand is pretty nice, too...and no capital gains tax on your trading profits!
Thailand stock market was the 2nd best performing market in the world, next to the Philippines last year. I am about to open up a brokerage in the Phils, too.
Enjoy the looooong weekend all.
good waves?
Posted by law6 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:56 pm
Love Thailand
Posted by dshipman on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:55 pm
I love Thailand. Been there three times....It's a great place!!!!
GDX
Posted by Palladin on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:18 pm
don't get me started on that. The GDX system screwed me twice but of course decides to work when I bail out of my shorts!
not complaining, I know that's how mech systems work but it could have cooperated the first time I tried it!
That's how system trades are.
Posted by matt on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:33 pm
That's how system trades are. One big trap that people fall into is that they lose on a couple system trades in a row, then turn it off, then as fate works the next system trade is a big winner but they miss it because they didn't do the trade, then they turn it back on and it's a losing trade, then they turn it off and of course miss the next winning trade again etc etc - emotional roller coaster
Also when you see a couple whipsaws in a system, as long as the system is still fine, that is actually useful information because it tells you that it's due for a trend trade. The GDX system had two whipsaws, so it was due for a trending trade
emotional? who are you calling
Posted by Palladin on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:49 pm
emotional? who are you calling emotional!...
good points. no worries as I got out at my sweet spot but should have given the system the benfit of the doubt
You setting up that trading
Posted by mark11 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:58 pm
You setting up that trading station monitor bank in the baby's room already???
actually, the wife is making
Posted by matt on 14th of Jan 2011 at 02:59 pm
actually, the wife is making me move my trading room downstairs, she wants the trading room for the baby room LOL, will be a pain moving all the equipment and stuff, but the baby and wife are the boss now!
Matt , I know the feeling
Posted by zach06 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 03:00 pm
I had to move from the Breakfast area in the kitchen to the spear bedroom upstairs... . Painin the butt.!
I feel your pain. New
Posted by brophy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:52 pm
I feel your pain. New York City resident and heading for Colorado...
Hey, look me up when
Posted by mark11 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:56 pm
Hey, look me up when you get here!!
i thought you lived in
Posted by randy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:48 pm
i thought you lived in missouri ?
does Illinois have a 3X
Posted by biscuit on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:44 pm
does Illinois have a 3X short etf?
Illinois
Posted by zach06 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:43 pm
My sale sign will go up in the Spring!
Colorado, baby. Nothin better
Posted by mark11 on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:42 pm
Colorado, baby. Nothin better
Indiana....
Posted by stitch on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:39 pm
Sooner is easier than later.
Posted by seadelight on 14th of Jan 2011 at 01:35 pm
Sooner is easier than later. It's easier to relocate before they get into school.